Long Range Models

[cycloneye]

Quite active 12z GFS run as you can see in the loop,where a few lows parade thru the Atlantic with one in particular passing over me.But of course this long range timing is fantasyland so lets see as the days progress,if it shows the same or changes.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

The first time GFS has a very strong system is in this 06z run.For those who like to track longtrackers,here is your system.It just goes north of the Leewards and brushes the outerbanks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Mecklenburg]

The first time GFS has a very strong system is in this 06z run.For those who like to track longtrackers,here is your system.It just goes north of the Leewards and brushes the outerbanks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

looking forward to that...

[Meso]

Now this is a rediculous long shot, but check the 384 hour GFS wave moving off Africa

[ronjon]

Quite active late part of August according to long range GFS. Solid 500 mb high building in the Atlantic in 10 days.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080944
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST FRI AUG 8 2008

THE LAST WAVE PASSAGE THAT THE MODELS DEPICT HAS SOME POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT AT THE MOMENT THATS WHAT THE MODELS SAY THAT FAR OUT FOR ALL OF THE LOWS IT BRINGS BY. THIS ONE...AS DO THE OTHERS...PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST.

[KWT]

Yep also ridge tries to build back westwards somewhat, enough to stop the African feature from recurving and sends it back westwards, also get another tropical cyclone head towards Florida by the end of the run.

[Blown Away]

A big system just off the SFL coast on August 24, could be Deja Vu??? Hope not!

[Mecklenburg]

A big system just off the SFL coast on August 24, could be Deja Vu??? Hope not!

in memory of frances?

[Blown Away]

Andrew

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

looks like something in the northeast gulf as well. maybe a homegrown develops. makes sense...looks like the NW carribean and gulf will have lower pressures in the area and be able to just sit and stew for a while without much other activity moving the air around until the wave train makes its way over. look for an earlier wave to make it into the carribean ahead of bigger systems and spawn a little gulf system once that added energy gets in there.

[ronjon]

looks like something in the northeast gulf as well. maybe a homegrown develops. makes sense...looks like the NW carribean and gulf will have lower pressures in the area and be able to just sit and stew for a while without much other activity moving the air around until the wave train makes its way over. look for an earlier wave to make it into the carribean ahead of bigger systems and spawn a little gulf system once that added energy gets in there.

Actually the NE GOM system moves across the FL peninsula from the Atlantic. It is the first in the series of disturbances from that model run that does so.

[Honeyko]

What's the GFS' record for verifying those things? 15%<?

[Mecklenburg]

don't look now but, the EPac is going to be very active...it could have as much as 4 storms in 24 hours.... darn...

[KWT]

Well at least we can watch as the EPAC/CPAC explodes into life...also should be noted that the favorable MJO may have some role in this and should reach this side probably around 20th which may help activity really flare just for the peak.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Getting excited over a 360 hour plus GFS model depiction of a hurricane, it is like smoking illegal substances, or the weather equivalent of dirty magazines.


The only time it is even remotely respectable to take a 2 week GFS forecast seriously, is when it forecasts precip in Southeast Texas November to March with sub 540 decameter 1000-500 mb thicknesses with a surface wind not off the Gulf in any way and the 850 mb freezing line down towards Victoria.


Then one can get excited, like children before Christmas.

But 2 week hurricane forecasts from a model that gets a grid scale lobotomy at 180 hours, well, getting excited off that is just sad.

[ronjon]

Getting excited over a 360 hour plus GFS model depiction of a hurricane, it is like smoking illegal substances, or the weather equivalent of dirty magazines.


The only time it is even remotely respectable to take a 2 week GFS forecast seriously, is when it forecasts precip in Southeast Texas November to March with sub 540 decameter 1000-500 mb thicknesses with a surface wind not off the Gulf in any way and the 850 mb freezing line down towards Victoria.


Then one can get excited, like children before Christmas.

But 2 week hurricane forecasts from a model that gets a grid scale lobotomy at 180 hours, well, getting excited off that is just sad.

I think most people realize that the exact specifics of a 16 day run are fantasy. I look at the the broader upper air environment and the number of disturbances being generated by the model over a series of runs to detect trends in activity. And over the last several days, the GFS is building ridging in the Atlantic after mid-August with some sort of monsoon trough becoming estblished off the coast of Africa - pretty consistent with climo so not that surprising.

[Meso]

12z CMC is interesting

[Derek Ortt]

even UKMET is developing something in the E Atl now

[Ivanhater]

Even without model support, it will not be surprising to have a couple systems in mid-august, so with model support things are about to get active shortly. Just look at the east pac right now, when that favorable MJO migrates over to the atlantic, hold on!