Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[CrazyC83]

Why are we so worried? This isn't even an Invest yet!

[HurricaneBelle]

Why are we so worried? This isn't even an Invest yet!

Who's worried? A lot of people are noting what the models are showing, but I don't see anyone in a panic.

[lonelymike]

Invests are usually declared when the NHC thinks that a wave is capable of becoming a tropical depression. At this time the trillion dollar does not qualify. Has a decent structure but limited shower activity. Maybe in time.

[lonelymike]

Why are we so worried? This isn't even an Invest yet!

Who's worried? A lot of people are noting what the models are showing, but I don't see anyone in a panic.

Quotes like "Good God" or Katrina's Brother kinda indicate differently. JMHO

[Ivanhater]

Why are we so worried? This isn't even an Invest yet!

Who's worried? A lot of people are noting what the models are showing, but I don't see anyone in a panic.

Quotes like "Good God" or Katrina's Brother kinda indicate differently. JMHO

Which is directed toward the "model run". I certainly don't see anybody ready to board up and evacuate

Now if I was an Islander, I'd be worried

[HurricaneBelle]

Why are we so worried? This isn't even an Invest yet!

Who's worried? A lot of people are noting what the models are showing, but I don't see anyone in a panic.

Quotes like "Good God" or Katrina's Brother kinda indicate differently. JMHO

I think all of these comments have an unspoken "If this were to verify" that precedes them. I dont' see anyone in here taking these 10-12 day model runs as anything more than a "what if" or entertainment.

[Aric Dunn]

Invests are usually declared when the NHC thinks that a wave is capable of becoming a tropical depression. At this time the trillion dollar does not qualify. Has a decent structure but limited shower activity. Maybe in time.

well nhc does not issue invests... but typically a system needs to be around over water for about 24hrs .. this wave has not been over water for 24hrs yet.. expect a invest tomorrow..

[Aric Dunn]

Who's worried? A lot of people are noting what the models are showing, but I don't see anyone in a panic.

Quotes like "Good God" or Katrina's Brother kinda indicate differently. JMHO

I think all of these comments have an unspoken "If this were to verify" that precedes them. I dont' see anyone in here taking these 10-12 day model runs as anything more than a "what if" or entertainment.

well thats ok, nothing wrong with that as long as no one is saying thats whats going to happen. analyzing the models is important.

[gatorcane]

Looks like this wave really starts its organizing trend over the next 24 hours based on the GFS so I do think SAT images off of Africa that roll in are going to be increasingly impressive over the next few days. We could see it ramp up into a depression, and Ana pretty quickly over the next 48-72 hours or so. Look for it to move west fairly quickly through the MDR despite the rapid deepening only because the Azores High subtropical ridge north of it will be quite strong and static. Threat to islands is possible but we are just too far out to know for sure.

Synoptics do suggest a westrunner still. Get ready for this ride that is about to happen with this one. Let's hope it stays clear of everybody, in the end.

[Aric Dunn]

Now on a side note .. there some convection starting to fire again.. very minimal right now so we will see if it continues..

[jinftl]

correct....at least in my case, stating 'katrina's brother' was a reaction to this model run...not a forecast....tomorrow, the same model could show this system as nada

Who's worried? A lot of people are noting what the models are showing, but I don't see anyone in a panic.

Quotes like "Good God" or Katrina's Brother kinda indicate differently. JMHO

Which is directed toward the "model run". I certainly don't see anybody ready to board up and evacuate

Now if I was an Islander, I'd be worried

[jinftl]

For those who want a visual of the current possible track...and this not a weak td....this track is as a developing hurricane

[Rainband]

way way way too early to tell whats going happen. Watch wait and see.

[jinftl]

totally...but so far, at least, this system has the two things that we look for in 'credible' model runs...consistency over many runs, and over different models....that's what to look for going forward. If models start to go all over the place, i would be less impressed. Right now, I am impressed.

way way way too early to tell whats going happen. Watch wait and see.

[Stormcenter]

All I have to say is G F S and 2 weeks out.....enough said.

[Aric Dunn]

All I have to say is G F S and 2 weeks out.....enough said.

hey now. the gfs is very good at 2 weeks out ..not for track but for development..

[Stormcenter]

The only consistency I see so far is that they are saying something will form. Yesterday it was going up the East coast today the GOM....no consistency there.

totally...but so far, at least, this system has the two things that we look for in 'credible' model runs...consistency over many runs, and over different models....that's what to look for going forward. If models start to go all over the place, i would be less impressed. Right now, I am impressed.

way way way too early to tell whats going happen. Watch wait and see.

[Gustywind]

For those who want a visual of the current possible track...and this not a weak td....this track is as a developing hurricane

Hopefully it's just predictions but given that... Dominica and Guadeloupe seems the islands more directly impacted by this feature We're far away from that, let's wait and see as usual

[jinftl]

This system is pegged as having the highest chance of development of any system in the atlantic...and east pac...and west pac....by NOAA'sTropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product

not something you see every day for a system just to come off of africa...the 'buzz' on this system is not based just on a rogue 14-day GFS run...

Again, i can not stress this enough, we are only talking about a significant cyclone developing and moving west.....there is no way to pin point any possible landfalls.....but, if you think about it, a loose canon heading towards the west is reason enough to spark interest...and non-panic concern

[caribsue]

I can tell you that as an "islander" in Barbados, we are watching this one with keen interest, there is no sense of panic at this time, I was out having a coffee and there were a couple of people around a laptop looking at the NOAA site. The general consensus from them was it is always best to be prepared as we have been spared the wrath of a bad storm for years. Whilst the US mainland maybe looking at two weeks away we in these parts may be looking at a much shorter time frame should it be headed our way and will be monitoring its progress and making the necessary plans.