Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

Here is the Ramsdis floater.

[ROCK]

best 850 vort still in Panama...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


looks like a TW....there is an anticyclone trying to to build over it. Still though no LLC....

12Z NAM- same as before BOC

12Z GFS- barely a low making its way towards the FL Panhandle. Backed way off from a TS...

[HurricaneDREW92]

Model support, great structure, convection, NHC better have an invest by the 2pm TWO.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS/EnKF Ensembles still show the possibility of a TC.



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[ROCK]

could be right....interesting the GFS ensembles show MX/STX and then up towards the NGOM but weaker...what is it trying to do? Hedge its forecast...

[tropicwatch]

Its confused

[Dean4Storms]

That ULL over the SE Gulf is moving off to the west very quickly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS looks like it wants to split the energy sending one Low toward the FL Panhandle and another over into the BOC. Strange run

[StormTracker]

12z GFS looks like it wants to split the energy sending one Low toward the FL Panhandle and another over into the BOC. Strange run

That would make Levi correct on both counts! Maybe that's why the models are confused! GFS might be onto something. This has happened in the past...ST

[StormTracker]

Well looking at the latest sat vis loops, it sure looks like it slowly continues to improve its overall structure, and starting to get that nice sharp wave look to it too... would expect an INVEST to be declared soon if this progress continues... my non-professional opinion only...

Agree and you can see a ridge aloft beginning to take shape over it. If convection continues to grow this is a player in my opinion.

Yes, I agree. You can definitely see an anticyclone developing over the area in the western/southwestern Caribbean.

Sorry for what probably will be considered a dumb question, but what indicates or how do you determine that there is an anticyclone developing over an area of disturbance?

[Dean4Storms]

Well looking at the latest sat vis loops, it sure looks like it slowly continues to improve its overall structure, and starting to get that nice sharp wave look to it too... would expect an INVEST to be declared soon if this progress continues... my non-professional opinion only...

Agree and you can see a ridge aloft beginning to take shape over it. If convection continues to grow this is a player in my opinion.

Yes, I agree. You can definitely see an anticyclone developing over the area in the western/southwestern Caribbean.

Sorry for what probably will be considered a dumb question, but what indicates or how do you determine that there is an anticyclone developing over an area of disturbance?[/quote]

No dumb questions around here. You can tell on satellite loops watching for the higher wispy clouds getting blown out round the convection in a clockwise fashion.

[Caribwxgirl]

Well whether it develops further is yet to be known, it is however dumping some decent rain on us at the moment. I'll watch carefully with you guys to see where it ends up later, BOC of Florida all we can do is wait and see.

[ROCK]

I look here to see if an anticyclone is forming aloft...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

see the counter clockwise winds aloft.....yes its a shear map...


12Z NAVGEM...wants to develop the top portion of the wave and send it into FL panhandle as a TS...no change from 6Z run really.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

I look here to see if an anticyclone is forming aloft...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

see the counter clockwise winds aloft.....yes its a shear map...

Yep, that works too!

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm going back to where the low ends up forming. Right now, the blob of convection seems to be propogating to the WNW. This would lead me to think that the low might form just east of the northern Yucatan. In that scenario, I have a hard time believing the BOC solution. Those models all suggest development close to Honduras.

[ROCK]

12Z CMC....holding serve...with a weak TS into FL Panhandle area..it does get down to 997MB so maybe a strong TS....who knows.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html


EURO out in a hour or so....

[Dean4Storms]

12 GGEM still strong TS into the FL Panhandle.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[weatherwindow]

Upper air support should continue to improve as the 200mb high continues to build in the general vicinity of Jamaica IF the GFS 200mb forecast verifies and the LLC forms under the MCS south to southwest of Jamaica, shear should fall to a minimum in about 12hrs. The anticyclone should cover most of the NW Carib. This feature is forecast to move roughly NW toward Yucatan Channel. Future 92l/Erin should be in a relatively low shear environment until it enters the GOM. However, it appears that the lowest shear will be over and just east of the Yucatan Channel. This arrangement would tend to favor the further development of 92L along the CMC/NAVGEM tracks rather than an overland track to the west per the GFS.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Thanks...Rich

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[ROCK]

might want to add a disclaimer....

I agree with most points but I am not sold on NGOM right now until a LLC does develop. I like the FIM9, NAVGEM and CMC but I have seen both fall on their faces. Waiting on the EURO to confirm my thoughts which remain unchanged...