Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Alyono]

1 or 2 more storms at most is what I am thinking. However, the one or two that form could be fairly intense

What are your thoughts on where they could potentially form?

I'd say a greater chance that they will form in the western half of the basin

[ConvergenceZone]

I'll say one (maybe two) more this month, one more next month (possibly another hurricane) and maybe one in November. I'm personally thinking we'll finish near or slightly higher than 1993 (which ended with 8/4/1)

And I'm noticing a pattern here, as soon as a storm dissipates (or is about to) the "no more storms this season" talk returns immediately, yet some of these posters are nowhere to be found when the next system forms a few weeks later...

I'm not sure of anyone that said there would "for sure" be no more storms this season.....A couple of months ago I forecasted us to make it to the "G" letter....I was thinking that I might have had to drop it to the "E", but now that we've had "E", I'll stick with either "F" or "G"......... Still, I stand by the fact that in terms of "quantity", "E" going into the end of September is pathetic.... I think if we get "F", it will come in very late September and if we get "G", probably mid October...As the season goes on, the area of development starts to shrink quickly. So you are pretty much just talking about the Carib or Gulf now....

[Ntxw]

No active storms today in Atlantic except for a noreaster-esque storm riding up just offshore of the eastern seaboard.



The MJO remains incoherent, KW activity is weak. Different parameters are controlling the weather with the transition of the seasons as westerlies strengthen and wavelengths become more amplified. Tail end of fronts, something baroclinically enhanced is the best shot as seeding from the deep tropics winds down. Caribbean remains a graveyard.

Side note, on this day in 1989 and 1938 a couple of notable systems made landfall being Hugo and the Long Island Express

[Sanibel]

Scattered convection in the Caribbean. Hints of a monsoon trough like set-up that sometimes forms in favorable years.

[floridasun78]

i be looking area east leedwards too

[WeatherGuesser]

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[WeatherGuesser]

" It's late September and I really should be back at school .... "

Ain't nothin' goin' on in the Atlantic, that's fer shure Rubber Duckie.

[Frank2]

First time in many weeks that the TWO is negative - its possible that the season is over...

[CrazyC83]

I highly doubt the season is over, but we may not see Fay until near the end of September or perhaps early October.

Simply put, we are about (or slightly below) where we expected to be in named storms, but doing better than expected for hurricanes (and major hurricanes since many, including myself, predicted 0).

[Yellow Evan]

I highly doubt the season is over, but we may not see Fay until near the end of September or perhaps early October.

Simply put, we are about (or slightly below) where we expected to be in named storms, but doing better than expected for hurricanes (and major hurricanes since many, including myself, predicted 0).

It is the end of September already.

[WPBWeather]

I highly doubt the season is over, but we may not see Fay until near the end of September or perhaps early October.

Simply put, we are about (or slightly below) where we expected to be in named storms, but doing better than expected for hurricanes (and major hurricanes since many, including myself, predicted 0).

It is the end of September already.

Are you thinking in Mountain or Pacific time? We still have some time left in September.

[tolakram]

Are you thinking in Mountain or Pacific time? We still have some time left in September.

I think it was a fair statement. 5 day outlook takes us to September 27th, the 30th being the last day of September. At this point I would be surprised if we see anything before October. I'm still uncertain what October will bring, but I suspect at least 2 storms.

[Frank2]

The 2006 season ended early due to a strong El Nino and considering we are less than 10 days from October, to say the season could be over is not an unreasonable statement - since the height of the season was quiet, the rest is likely to stay the same....

[Sanibel]

There's convection out there but nothing to set it off. The Atlantic is definitely deadened this season by some kind of negative atmospheric.

[tolakram]

But there is no strong El Nino, or even any El Nino at the moment. Even if declared in hindsight it's certainly not strong. This is why I think we will see a couple more storms in October.

But really, who knows.

[Alyono]

Atlantic itself is too hostile to allow anything to form. It's not the el niño preventing genesis

[CFLHurricane]

I concur with the others that we make get only a couple of weak storms before the fat lady sings.

The October surprises we'll be getting is in baseball.

[MGC]

Would not be surprised if nothing developes the rest of September....we might have an October surprise but not in baseball......MGC

[WeatherGuesser]

Only thing deader'n ATL is S2K.

[dexterlabio]

Is it possible to have 4 or 5 Atlantic TC's in October?