2015 Global model runs discussion

[OuterBanker]

gfs show no developing

LOL, the last GFS holdout.

[NCSTORMMAN]

gfs show no developing

LOL, the last GFS holdout.

For all we know the GFS could be right correct? I am just wondering why it is taking that Low Pressure off the southeast and making it dance around in every direction.

[cycloneye]

Thread for off SE U.S coast possible development is up

[xcool22]

just imo okay

[OuterBanker]

gfs show no developing

LOL, the last GFS holdout.

For all we know the GFS could be right correct? I am just wondering why it is taking that Low Pressure off the southeast and making it dance around in every direction.

Actually, the gfs is showing the low off ec of fla but doesn't do anything with it taking it into se nc and dying. My complaint is that it has been abysmal in in close development. As our populations grow mitigation and logistics become ever more important. The GFS is supposed to be the American flagship, yet the European constantly outperforms it in tropical forecasting.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Agreed maybe I was looking at multiple lows that form one after the other. I agree on the models thing but I am no meteorologist.

[OuterBanker]

gfs show no developing

LOL, the last GFS holdout.

For all we know the GFS could be right correct? I am just wondering why it is taking that Low Pressure off the southeast and making it dance around in every direction.

Actually, the gfs is showing the low off ec of fla but doesn't do anything with it taking it into se nc and dying. My complaint is that it has been abysmal in in close development. As our populations grow mitigation and logistics become ever more important. The GFS is supposed to be the American flagship, yet the European constantly outperforms it in tropical forecasting.

[floridasun78]

just inZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure could form early next week
between the southeast United States coast and Bermuda. This low
could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves east-northeastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain/Cangialosi

[floridasun78]

look going out to sea what nhc thinking

[wxman57]

GFS is indicating a low forming, it just doesn't do much with it. Similar to its handling of Claudette. Euro was better. Very good chance of Danny by Wednesday.

[NCSTORMMAN]

GFS is indicating a low forming, it just doesn't do much with it. Similar to its handling of Claudette. Euro was better. Very good chance of Danny by Wednesday.

Do you think the Euro is correct? Or do you think it goes well out to see like the NHC is predicting?

[TheStormExpert]

GFS is indicating a low forming, it just doesn't do much with it. Similar to its handling of Claudette. Euro was better. Very good chance of Danny by Wednesday.

Do you think the Euro is correct? Or do you think it goes well out to see like the NHC is predicting?

Yeah it looks like the NHC is following another model rather than the Euro in terms of potential track, or is that shaded region just the area where the TC may form?

[OuterBanker]

1 If tpc based it on the GFS I wouldn't trust it. The gfs takes everything OTS on in close proximity. Even Sandy was OTS and weak in their initial forecast.

2. The only forecaster from TPC I trust is Stewart.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS is indicating a low forming, it just doesn't do much with it. Similar to its handling of Claudette. Euro was better. Very good chance of Danny by Wednesday.

Do you think the Euro is correct? Or do you think it goes well out to see like the NHC is predicting?

Yeah it looks like the NHC is following another model rather than the Euro in terms of potential track, or is that shaded region just the area where the TC may form?

The latter.

[NCSTORMMAN]

So, am I getting this straight. The ECMWF is following the GFS? If so I think a slow clap should start for the GFS. You know like they do in the movies.

[OuterBanker]

Wow, big shift west in European. Riding entire east coast,but inland. It must see a strong trough or ridge.

[tolakram]

The run looks very strange, waiting for the 12Z.

I'm still not sure what area the NHC is tagging, it appears to be different from this one.

[gatorcane]

The GFS model is showing a couple of closed lows that trek across the Atlantic in the next couple of weeks. These lows don't develop but they are not getting wiped out by strong shear like we have seen so far this season.

In the image below you can see the one low approaching the NE Leewards and the other low organizing off of Africa which takes the same path as this low. We are getting closer to that time of year we need to start looking out over the Atlantic at the Cape Verde waves that roll of Africa.

[Dean4Storms]

Some Convection blowing up with the Tropical Wave now entering the Eastern Carib. Sea this morning.

[HurricaneFan]

The GFS model is showing a couple of closed lows that trek across the Atlantic in the next couple of weeks. These lows don't develop but they are not getting wiped out by strong shear like we have seen so far this season.

In the image below you can see the one low approaching the NE Leewards and the other low organizing off of Africa which takes the same path as this low. We are getting closer to that time of year we need to start looking out over the Atlantic at the Cape Verde waves that roll of Africa.

Is the Tropical Wave on the GFS approaching the Islands the same Wave just south of the Cape Verde Islands now?
There seems to be a Wave to the east of it.Do the models predict that Wave will die off?