Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

GOM bound?

[TheStormExpert]

Gulf bound through the Florida straits.

[gatorcane]

Wide open door into South Florida as the system looks to start making a turn:

[SouthFLTropics]

These 200 hour plus runs are fine and good for entertainment value but in reality I have a hard time buying any scenario beyond a couple days at this point, especially after the debacle that 99L/TD9 has been. If I had a nickel for every time the GFS has destroyed Florida I could probably retire.

[centuryv58]

These 200 hour plus runs are fine and good for entertainment value but in reality I have a hard time buying any scenario beyond a couple days at this point, especially after the debacle that 99L/TD9 has been. If I had a nickel for every time the GFS has destroyed Florida I could probably retire.

Well check again on FL after Thurs eve and see if we are still here PS. I see you live here so you"ll know when I do..

[WeatherEmperor]

Wide open door into South Florida as the system looks to start making a turn:

The position here and the track it takes near the islands is veeeeeery similar to Georges 1998.....


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[SouthFLTropics]

Wide open door into South Florida as the system looks to start making a turn:

The position here and the track it takes near the islands is veeeeeery similar to Georges 1998.....


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

I've heard 98' is an analog year for this year if I'm not mistaken...

[SouthFLTropics]

West Coast rider and into Tampa...

[stormlover2013]

Now this is a longs way out...should keep us busy though

[SouthFLTropics]

Now this is a longs way out...should keep us busy though

Yes, no doubt. As TD9 exits the scene this disturbance should start gaining attention as it approaches the islands starting next weekend and into Labor Day. The S2K forums will continue hopping.

[KWT]

I think the key thing to watch for is whether or not anything comes off this convective mass. The track is a long way off so there is time for change.

If something forms, odds are the upper high is going to get this to at least 60W which will put the E.Caribbean under the gun. After that really isn't worth thinking too much about right now...

[SouthFLTropics]

Between TD9 and now this, it appears that the East GOM is the flavor of the month so far. Time will tell if that's how it actually plays out. I'm having a little bit of a hard time believing that Bermuda high holds as strong as it is into the second week of September. We should start to see fronts marching their way across the US by this time and eroding that high. As always, it's all about timing...

[LarryWx]

Between TD9 and now this, it appears that the East GOM is the flavor of the month so far. Time will tell if that's how it actually plays out. I'm having a little bit of a hard time believing that Bermuda high holds as strong as it is into the second week of September. We should start to see fronts marching their way across the US by this time and eroding that high. As always, it's all about timing...

Nevertheless, history says it can certainly happen as the second to third week of Sep has had a number of big CONUS SE/FL/Gulf hits from long tracking storms like: 1900, 1926, 1928, 1947, 1960, 1964, 1979, 1989, 2003, 2004, and 2008. So, big strikes in just the 2nd-3rd week of Sep. from long tracking storms, alone, on the SE or Gulf coast of US have occurred about once every ten years. In addition, Georges of 1998 and a storm in 1893, among others, were big hits from CV storms much later.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa tonight. Conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development of this system later this week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Interesting, models have been all over the place past few days. There appears a great degree of uncertainty about an eventual North American landfall location, although Florida seems somewhat favored at this point in time.

[stormlover2013]

nobody is favored lol, storm hasn't even developed and the last 4 days it has shown a fish, texas, florida, and east coast

[Gustywind]

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa tonight. Conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development of this system later this week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Is that my untraines eyes... looks like the orange cone is much more larger and stretching even a little to the South? I don't like this anticipated projection for those who lived in the EC PR especially as a Leewardian and even if i was Windwardian too . NHC seems very bullish on this one, let's see step by step an day by day if this thing could achieve the poof test first and see if it has a real potential to be called a " threat at long term". Time will tell.

[RL3AO]

Is that my untraines eyes... looks like the orange cone is much more larger and stretching even a little to the South? I don't like this anticipated projection for those who lived in the EC PR especially as a Leewardian and even if i was Windwardian too . NHC seems very bullish on this one, let's see step by step an day by day if this thing could achieve the poof test first and see if it has a real potential to be called a " threat at long term". Time will tell.

I'm suspecting that the trend in the models to slow down development may hint towards a more southern track.

[toad strangler]

The GFS has consistently placed this system in the near vicinity of the shredder chain and a couple times splits it down the middle. I bet the US coastline would look much different without these islands

[RL3AO]

Unfortunately for the people of Haiti, they've paid the price many times acting as a blocker for the US mainland.