2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1498
- Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Of note is that the GFS did a great job in the long range, days 10-16, picking up on the system that is now 90L and likely will become a TS in a few days (even though it took longer to get going than indicated). The fact it's been showing something else forming in the Caribbean about 10-15 days out is concerning.
2 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The GFS is still showing some development out of the monsoon trough in the long-range:
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139714
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
@TropicalTidbits
The NCEP model server has been offline since Sunday evening, so new model runs from the GFS and other NCEP models will not be plotted until the server comes back online.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1001086398651420672
The NCEP model server has been offline since Sunday evening, so new model runs from the GFS and other NCEP models will not be plotted until the server comes back online.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1001086398651420672
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2422
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The main NOMADS server is down that supplies the GFS data to the public. However, the backup server looks fully functional and data can still be found here - http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/. Levi is attempting to switch his server requests to the backup server.
1 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139714
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
From Levi:
Update 11am EDT: The NCEP model server is back up, but some products may continue to be delayed today.
Update 11am EDT: The NCEP model server is back up, but some products may continue to be delayed today.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The GFS is still showing off and on development in the long-range (<10 days):
2 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
By the way, 18Z GFS continues to show potential development in the NW Caribbean (1008 mb broad Low) moving north into the Southern GOM in 240 hours.
2 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
northjaxpro wrote:By the way, 18Z GFS continues to show potential development in the NW Caribbean (1008 mb broad Low) moving north into the Southern GOM in 240 hours.
What is the GFS showing currently as far as potential development in the long range?
1 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Latest 06z GFS drops the idea of more development in the W Caribbean/SE GOM, jumps on board with the Euro of development in the EPAC instead.
1 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
1 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 190
- Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:46 pm
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
NDG wrote:Latest 06z GFS drops the idea of more development in the W Caribbean/SE GOM, jumps on board with the Euro of development in the EPAC instead.
It didn't really drop it, it shows something trying to get going, but doesn't manage to.
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 190
- Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:46 pm
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GWO is predicting Beryl will form sometime from June 6th-12th somewhere in the Gulf. They got Alberto spot on.
0 likes
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GWO, the same company that is anticipating a season similar to if not worse than last year, with the coldest MDR since 1994?
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
StruThiO wrote:GWO, the same company that is anticipating a season similar to if not worse than last year, with the coldest MDR since 1994?
Just remember the MDR is way in the Atlantic while the GOM is another body of water all to itself.The speculation from what I have read thus far over the winter was a possible more active area's closer to home like the GOm and WCARB.
0 likes
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Yeah I know and it wasn't a personal attack at all, I just have strong opinions about their "methodology" lol
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
StruThiO wrote:Yeah I know and it wasn't a personal attack at all, I just have strong opinions about their "methodology" lol
That's OK but the MDR could warm just enough come August/September to come into play and as the story is is told "it only takes one"
2 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 252
- Joined: Fri May 11, 2018 9:20 pm
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
cutoff low devolops off the se thinks the 00z met.
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Will be down in the Keys and Key West the week of June 11-15 - starting to get a bit concerned with statements saying there is a possibility of something brewing in the GOM or SW Carib. around that time frame. How reliable are these models and statements?
0 likes
Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: HurricaneMaster_PR, islandgirl45, JtSmarts, kenayers and 40 guests