Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5796
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
Noticeable spin on the Corpus radar. Could be have another Humberto situation developing?.....MGC
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
I say they raise development chances to 20% @ 8pm, but no higher.
EDIT: Nevermind, they stay @ 10%.
EDIT: Nevermind, they stay @ 10%.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
a surface trough associated with a mid- and upper-level low
pressure system has remained stationary near the Texas coast during
the day. This system continues to produce a widespread area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied
by strong gusty winds, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy
rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and
southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few days.
For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office
and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
a surface trough associated with a mid- and upper-level low
pressure system has remained stationary near the Texas coast during
the day. This system continues to produce a widespread area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied
by strong gusty winds, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy
rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and
southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few days.
For more details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather office
and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
Jeeze, it’s looking like Beaumont area may be in for a long night. I’ve been watching the radar all day and when I left work it was just a train still continuing to roll through there. While again now, it appears it wants to continue dumping over that area..
1 likes
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
Looks like a couple more inches at least are headed up toward the Triangle in the next couple of hours. If those storms continue to fire offshore, they will get at least a bit into Texas before ramping down as they get further inland and night falls. Definite situation for low lying areas thus the continuation of the flash flood warning until 10:00
https://www.weather.gov/lch/
We got a bit over an inch here in New Orleans as two bands came through today. We didn’t get any rain from the early am band here but there was a morning thunderstorm between that and the second one. Looks like only spotty storms are firing offshore of SELA, so the majority of the action should remain to our west and southwest.
https://www.weather.gov/lch/
We got a bit over an inch here in New Orleans as two bands came through today. We didn’t get any rain from the early am band here but there was a morning thunderstorm between that and the second one. Looks like only spotty storms are firing offshore of SELA, so the majority of the action should remain to our west and southwest.
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 493
- Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
- Haris
- Category 5
- Posts: 1808
- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
Steve wrote:Looks like a couple more inches at least are headed up toward the Triangle in the next couple of hours. If those storms continue to fire offshore, they will get at least a bit into Texas before ramping down as they get further inland and night falls. Definite situation for low lying areas thus the continuation of the flash flood warning until 10:00
https://www.weather.gov/lch/
We got a bit over an inch here in New Orleans as two bands came through today. We didn’t get any rain from the early am band here but there was a morning thunderstorm between that and the second one. Looks like only spotty storms are firing offshore of SELA, so the majority of the action should remain to our west and southwest.
Any better idea on Austin TX today? Think we get 2-4
0 likes
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
No. I haven’t looked that far inland. I think it’s going to be a matter of whether or not the low is on or offshore as it deepens and where it moves. I think if upper conditions continue to improve and the storm moves 100 miles inland or so, you’d be NW but getting feeder moisture from the east and ese. You’d assume most of the heaviest rain would be in the daytime there as well. But if the focusing mechanism (center?) stays offshore, it’s just going to depend on how far inland storms get each day. So you may be right with 2-4” for the event, but obviously it could be 6 or even 10” if the low pressure is slow to move out or wind down (and if it would be to your s/se/sw)
1 likes
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
Rode around Beaumont today and there were already streets flooding in some areas. One of our main drainage ditches that was bone dry few days ago, is almost totally full now, this is like one of those huge concrete drainage ditches, not no little swale ditch. Anyways, we have been receiving copious amounts of rainfall steady all day it seems, moderate rainfall, then heavy downpours for 30min straight, off and on. Filled up a gallon bucket in my back yard. I know this because it was empty before this rain started.
Looking at the HRRR, I expect more moisture moving in about midnight - 4am, could be some 1-3in per hour downpours, grabbing my rubber boots & a poncho.
Looking at the HRRR, I expect more moisture moving in about midnight - 4am, could be some 1-3in per hour downpours, grabbing my rubber boots & a poncho.
1 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22506
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
MGC wrote:Noticeable spin on the Corpus radar. Could be have another Humberto situation developing?.....MGC
No rotation at the surface. Wave axis is now inland. I measured 0.12" of rain in SW Houston. Not quite the extreme amounts the HRRR was predicting for Houston. I see reports of up to 3.28" in far eastern Harris County northeast of Baytown. Hard to predict where the heavier storms will form with such a disorganized system. Tomorrow could be my day for heavy rain.
1 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 673
- Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
- Location: Somewhere over the rainbow
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
wxGuy wrote:Rode around Beaumont today and there were already streets flooding in some areas. One of our main drainage ditches that was bone dry few days ago, is almost totally full now, this is like one of those huge concrete drainage ditches, not no little swale ditch. Anyways, we have been receiving copious amounts of rainfall steady all day it seems, moderate rainfall, then heavy downpours for 30min straight, off and on. Filled up a gallon bucket in my back yard. I know this because it was empty before this rain started.
Looking at the HRRR, I expect more moisture moving in about midnight - 4am, could be some 1-3in per hour downpours, grabbing my rubber boots & a poncho.
Same here in Lumberton, Tx. Been on and off rain since about 11:00am. Heaviest downpours (very tropical) this afternoon. I am thinking at least 3-4 in today maybe more.
2 likes
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
1.20” at Smith Point-East Chambers County since midnight.
It’s been so dry here you can’t tell it’s rain at all. Zero standing water...ditches are dry. Tide has come up a little.
It’s been so dry here you can’t tell it’s rain at all. Zero standing water...ditches are dry. Tide has come up a little.
0 likes
- Haris
- Category 5
- Posts: 1808
- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
Steve wrote:No. I haven’t looked that far inland. I think it’s going to be a matter of whether or not the low is on or offshore as it deepens and where it moves. I think if upper conditions continue to improve and the storm moves 100 miles inland or so, you’d be NW but getting feeder moisture from the east and ese. You’d assume most of the heaviest rain would be in the daytime there as well. But if the focusing mechanism (center?) stays offshore, it’s just going to depend on how far inland storms get each day. So you may be right with 2-4” for the event, but obviously it could be 6 or even 10” if the low pressure is slow to move out or wind down (and if it would be to your s/se/sw)
Thank you as always
1 likes
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
http://www.dd6.org/rainfall-elevations/maps/rainfall-data-map here is our rainfall data for dd6 in jefferson county
0 likes
- jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 8088
- Age: 50
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
- Location: The Woodlands, TX
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
It's been breezy here today -- more than I expected. The airmass has been very tropical. It has that 'feel' of a storm brewing in the gulf with the wind and the moisture.
I had about an inch of rain yesterday, and another quarter of an inch today. I was expecting more today than what I got, but so it goes...
I'm keeping a close watch for sure. It won't take much to setup training, flooding bands over SE Texas.
I had about an inch of rain yesterday, and another quarter of an inch today. I was expecting more today than what I got, but so it goes...
I'm keeping a close watch for sure. It won't take much to setup training, flooding bands over SE Texas.
2 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 673
- Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
- Location: Somewhere over the rainbow
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
wxGuy wrote:6.97" recorded at the coast
8.19" recorded at the coast
Where are these totals from?
1 likes
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
sphelps8681 wrote:wxGuy wrote:6.97" recorded at the coast
8.19" recorded at the coast
Where are these totals from?
i posted link to dd6 page
1 likes
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
http://www.dd6.org/rainfall-elevations/reports/water-level wow and this is the water level at that drainage ditch i was talking about that i had seen earlier today @ around 5:00 pm
0 likes
Re: Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf
06/18/2018 08:41:41 PM 13.30
06/18/2018 08:11:41 PM 13.56
06/18/2018 07:56:41 PM 13.74
06/18/2018 07:26:40 PM 13.97
06/18/2018 07:11:40 PM 14.12
06/18/2018 06:56:40 PM 14.29
06/18/2018 06:41:40 PM 14.53
06/18/2018 06:11:40 PM 15.03
06/18/2018 05:56:40 PM 15.26
06/18/2018 05:11:43 PM 15.41
06/18/2018 04:56:40 PM 15.09
06/18/2018 04:26:40 PM 14.73
06/18/2018 03:56:40 PM 14.15
06/18/2018 03:41:42 PM 13.44
06/18/2018 03:27:00 PM 12.71
06/18/2018 03:11:44 PM 11.95
06/18/2018 02:56:41 PM 11.39
06/18/2018 02:26:50 PM 11.01
06/18/2018 02:11:52 PM 10.83
06/18/2018 12:56:40 PM 10.57
06/18/2018 12:26:40 PM 10.34
06/18/2018 12:11:40 PM 10.19
06/18/2018 11:56:40 AM 10.01
06/18/2018 11:41:40 AM 9.75
06/18/2018 11:11:44 AM 9.60
06/18/2018 09:56:40 AM 9.81
06/18/2018 09:41:40 AM 9.57
06/18/2018 09:26:39 AM 8.81
06/18/2018 09:11:46 AM 7.81
06/18/2018 08:56:39 AM 7.67
06/18/2018 08:41:39 AM 7.37
06/18/2018 08:11:40 AM 6.96
06/18/2018 07:26:39 AM 7.11
06/18/2018 06:26:39 AM 7.49
06/18/2018 04:56:39 AM 7.87
06/18/2018 04:41:39 AM 7.52
06/18/2018 04:26:40 AM 7.17
06/18/2018 02:11:39 AM 6.88
that ditch full af
06/18/2018 08:11:41 PM 13.56
06/18/2018 07:56:41 PM 13.74
06/18/2018 07:26:40 PM 13.97
06/18/2018 07:11:40 PM 14.12
06/18/2018 06:56:40 PM 14.29
06/18/2018 06:41:40 PM 14.53
06/18/2018 06:11:40 PM 15.03
06/18/2018 05:56:40 PM 15.26
06/18/2018 05:11:43 PM 15.41
06/18/2018 04:56:40 PM 15.09
06/18/2018 04:26:40 PM 14.73
06/18/2018 03:56:40 PM 14.15
06/18/2018 03:41:42 PM 13.44
06/18/2018 03:27:00 PM 12.71
06/18/2018 03:11:44 PM 11.95
06/18/2018 02:56:41 PM 11.39
06/18/2018 02:26:50 PM 11.01
06/18/2018 02:11:52 PM 10.83
06/18/2018 12:56:40 PM 10.57
06/18/2018 12:26:40 PM 10.34
06/18/2018 12:11:40 PM 10.19
06/18/2018 11:56:40 AM 10.01
06/18/2018 11:41:40 AM 9.75
06/18/2018 11:11:44 AM 9.60
06/18/2018 09:56:40 AM 9.81
06/18/2018 09:41:40 AM 9.57
06/18/2018 09:26:39 AM 8.81
06/18/2018 09:11:46 AM 7.81
06/18/2018 08:56:39 AM 7.67
06/18/2018 08:41:39 AM 7.37
06/18/2018 08:11:40 AM 6.96
06/18/2018 07:26:39 AM 7.11
06/18/2018 06:26:39 AM 7.49
06/18/2018 04:56:39 AM 7.87
06/18/2018 04:41:39 AM 7.52
06/18/2018 04:26:40 AM 7.17
06/18/2018 02:11:39 AM 6.88
that ditch full af
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, cainjamin, cajungal, Cpv17, duilaslol, floridasun, Google Adsense [Bot], Homie J, HurakaYoshi, IcyTundra, NotSparta, skyline385, StormWeather and 120 guests