2020 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Strongest run yet for the Philippine storm. Peak 929 mb.

[1900hurricane]

I'm more or less just kind of waiting to see what October has to offer right now.

[euro6208]

EURO finally in line with GFS on the twin solution.

[euro6208]

strong signals for philippine system.

[euro6208]

By Sunday, an east-to-west oriented trough establishes well to the
north along ~20N. This will induce a gentle west to southwest flow
across the Marianas that may linger through much of next week. A
wetter pattern is starting to look more likely around midweek as
moisture and monsoon-like flow are advertised by GFS/ECMWF. The
deterministic ECMWF and its ensembles continue to cave to the GFS...
now showing a tropical disturbance developing along the far eastern
extent of this trough along 20N and lifting farther north well away
from main islands of the Marianas.

[mrbagyo]

I'm more or less just kind of waiting to see what October has to offer right now.

All La Niña OND major typhoons that came within 500 nm from the geographical center of the Philippine Archipelago (Marinduque island).

[euro6208]

EURO develops 2 TC's during the next 5 days while GFS 3-4 during the next 2 weeks.

[Hayabusa]

Possible active October?

[euro6208]

Eastern Micronesia disturbance now an invest.



97W Thread

[euro6208]

The models seems to have backed off significantly on multiple cyclones and GFS no longer has a strengthening typhoon heading towards the Philippines.

[dexterlabio]

I know the operational models dropped the long range systems (which can be expected) but it looks like the signal is still pretty strong for something forming in the second week of October, as per GEFS and GEPS.

[JoshwaDone]

its back.. but more south

[euro6208]

06Z gone. Let's see if it comes back.

[aspen]

The 00z CMC shows a classic Marianas typhoon starting to develop on October 2nd/3rd and reaching the islands on the 6th. However, none of the other models show anything like that.

[euro6208]

The 00z CMC shows a classic Marianas typhoon starting to develop on October 2nd/3rd and reaching the islands on the 6th. However, none of the other models show anything like that.

The system is still there in the 00z run but weaker. Heads it to the P.I Sea.

[euro6208]

Quite interesting that GFS also develops a system at the same time frame as CMC but further north and out to sea. Past 2 runs has it very intense.

00z




06z

[euro6208]

Next 5 names:

Chan-hom
Linfa
Nangka
Saudel
Molave

[euro6208]

GFS sees a possible outbreak.

[euro6208]

Now if the atmosphere can cooperate combined with this: Look out.

[mrbagyo]

CMC has something for the Marianas within 10 days.