INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #381 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:02 pm

Convection is building over and to the east of the LLC/v-max. But yes its moving a little fast. Even if the the west winds not there give it a few more hours.

HurricaneHunter914 · #382 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:03 pm

Come on at least get two named systems in June. Sorry I don't want this system to hit anyone, but for this year to catch up with 05' we need Beryl to form.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #383 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:04 pm

I agree hurricanehunter914.

#384 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:17 pm

I'm gonna have to agree with Mr. Ott , I saw this feature on the very first Vis. pics this morning and thought it was a LLC but upon further review I'm thinking it's a vort max rotating around the wave axis just to the south of it. If it starts moving WSW, I won't be surprised.

Cyclenall · #385 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:33 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Looks like this year we'll have a slower start to the season, which should help people relax before August comes.

Go look right now at year last today on the forums. It doesn't look like this season will have a slower start to the season. Why is this? Go find out by reading last year posts today.

#386 Postby **bvigal** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:34 pm

I just haven't been that impressed with this thing today. Checking loops with high-level wind overlays, wv, there isn't much shear, if there's a LLC, it should be looking better than it does. Pressure is high, and 24hr surface forcast contains no low at all. Buoy data is unimpressive, with winds steady E, under 20kts, and gusts peaked at 25kt. I'm sure it will do some squally weather tomorrow over Windwards and Thursday we'll get some here, and some rain (which PR doesn't need, they are saturated right now!).

I'll add one caveat to that. Something Sanibel used to always remind us. This has persisted with some convection and some turning for a few days now. That means it still has potential, if only in the long run. :wink:

marcane_1973 · #387 Postby **marcane_1973** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:49 pm

This baby is moving just way too fast to develop and the conditions are not too good out there in the Atlantic to get one of these waves to get going as well.

WindRunner · #388 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:05 pm

bvigal wrote:I'll add one caveat to that. Something Sanibel used to always remind us. This has persisted with some convection and some turning for a few days now. That means it still has potential, if only in the long run.

Words to remember for sure.

#389 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:13 pm

Is this a wave or a low? I've heard some sources say there is NO circulation (wave), and others say there is an upper-level circulation but that's it (low, like 91L).

HurricaneHunter914 · #390 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:18 pm

This is a low since there is aan LLC.

#391 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:19 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:This is a low since there is aan LLC.

But no upper circulation? Otherwise it would be a tropical depression...

#392 Postby **bvigal** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Is this a wave or a low? I've heard some sources say there is NO circulation (wave), and others say there is an upper-level circulation but that's it (low, like 91L).

Right now, according to NOAA, it's both.
18z surface

#393 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:23 pm

Longest living Vort max I've ever seen.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #394 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:24 pm

Upper cirulation? No because tropical systems, the low pressure is at the surface. What this is missing at least what can be seen is a west wind. Because of the rate the forward movement this thing is going a west wind can not develop at the surface. In which=not fully closed. Alot of system have had this problem over this part of the Atlatnic as they are steered on the southern side of the Azores high.

Remember there is no upper level cirulation, a tropical low is a warm core area of low pressure that draw it heat/energy from the ocean. In which is strongest low pressure area is from the surface growing weaker with height. In really a Anticyclone forms normally at the upper levels.

Theres alot more to it but I'm half a sleep.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #395 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:25 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Longest living Vort max I've ever seen.

I agree I been watching it for over a day now. If this is the same one I'v spoted yesterday. If it can slow down in keep building a Anticyclone to force the shear out of its way it might have a chance.

#396 Postby **bvigal** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:29 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:...Theres alot more to it but I'm half a sleep.

WAKE UP MATT!!

:hehe:

You do fairly well being half asleep!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #397 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:32 pm

I got a few hours. But some reason I got up in turned on the computer in found 91L. For some reason I woke up for it.

#398 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 6:22 pm

I know the Candian does not have a good handle on the tropics but, it brings it up into the Atlantic and develops it into an area of low pressure.
12Z 6-27-06 850mb vorticity.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Shear is quite high in the caribbean so I would be suprised if it were able to sustain convection of the wave. If thunderstorms were still forming most likely the tops would be blow off to the northeast rather quickly.

40KT shear over the caribbean
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Shear Tendency
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

GFS shows some of that shear abating in about 48 hours in the Eastern Caribbean. If the wave can slow down.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=048hr

LOOP
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Additionally it already seems to be affect by the shear on the north and north west parts of the wave.

Does anyone agree?

By the way this is as I see it right now. Things could change over the next couple of days as the wave moves into the Caribbean.

#399 Postby **mvtrucking** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 6:32 pm

WindRunner wrote:
bvigal wrote:I'll add one caveat to that. Something Sanibel used to always remind us. This has persisted with some convection and some turning for a few days now. That means it still has potential, if only in the long run.

Words to remember for sure.

Key word being "persistence"

#400 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue Jun 27, 2006 6:42 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Come on at least get two named systems in June. Sorry I don't want this system to hit anyone, but for this year to catch up with 05' we need Beryl to form.

I'm sure that a lot of people who suffered last season, are hoping that we DO NOT have a repeat of 2005. I personally I'm hoping for a quite season 8-)

, but realistically fearing the worse.

INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

Who is online