94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

#381 Postby **drezee** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:05 am

rams FLOATER

Extremeweatherguy · #382 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:05 am

jschlitz wrote:well for one the vast majority of waves don't develop anyway. 2nd, as a pro met he's just analyzing the data, and the data shows upper winds are not favorable. he's just calling it how he sees it. any good met wants his forecast to verify.

fwiw most of here in TX hopes it doesn't develop. we've had 2 systems dump flooding rains on us so far this season. the last thing we need is a full-blown TC forming. if signs eventually point to that i'm confident wxman and others will accurately change their projections.

Well of course no one wants it to develop, but looking at it now I would say that it is crazy to say it has no chance. I think this still looks very good and with shear starting to decrease to the west and north of the system I think something may come out of this.

Extremeweatherguy · #383 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:06 am

drezee wrote:rams FLOATER

wow. That is looking very good right now.

#384 Postby **Starburst** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:07 am

To be honest though even if something did become of the system the result would be the same tons and tons of rain.

#385 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:08 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Don't get me wrong here..WX Man is awesome at predicting i just like to see the reasons a professional Met thinks a storm has a chance rather than the obvious insications that we can all see showin in the models of no dev...

In that case I'd recommend a subscription to AccuWx. They'll lay it out for you.

HurricaneHunter914 · #386 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:08 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

looking good! It seems like there is a banding feature to the west of the center.

Extremeweatherguy · #387 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:10 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

looking good! It seems like there is a banding feature to the west of the center.

Also notice that the winds to the north of the mass of convection are coming from the ENE. Could this be a sign of a developing surface low?

DESTRUCTION5 · #388 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:12 am

jschlitz wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Don't get me wrong here..WX Man is awesome at predicting i just like to see the reasons a professional Met thinks a storm has a chance rather than the obvious insications that we can all see showin in the models of no dev...

In that case I'd recommend a subscription to AccuWx. They'll lay it out for you.

LMAO...Good one..So true

HurricaneHunter914 · #389 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:14 am

This wave is getting exciting, I'm suprised that the NHC has failed to put a Floater on it.

#390 Postby **drezee** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:15 am

867
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 30 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-030

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
ECD

HurricaneHunter914 · #391 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:16 am

So does that mean they're going to check the wave out?

mtm4319 · #392 Postby **mtm4319** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:17 am

How quickly is this moving? It looks like it won't have enough time to do anything before hitting Mexico.

Edit: just saw the models on the previous page... in any case, land interaction is going to hurt its chances, without seeing shear maps or anything else of the sort.

#393 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:18 am

It does look good this AM. I am concerned that storm tops don't appear to be getting shredded from the system so maybe the shear is lessening. Gotta run errands - see you guys this PM. Who knows what I'll come back to...

Extremeweatherguy · #394 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:18 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:So does that mean they're going to check the wave out?

no it means they are not. Remember though, these change quickly. It is not like they can't all the sudden change their mind for tomorrow. Also, sometimes they don't send a plane out that far into the BOC until it starts 'really' developing.

#395 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:18 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:So does that mean they're going to check the wave out?

No, that means they're not going.

Extremeweatherguy · #396 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:19 am

mtm4319 wrote:How quickly is this moving? It looks like it won't have enough time to do anything before hitting Mexico.

Edit: just saw the models on the previous page... in any case, land interaction is going to hurt its chances, without seeing shear maps or anything else of the sort.

It is moving NNW.

#397 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:21 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
WXman57 you remind me of a guy named FranK that used to be here..he used to kill any kind of development(not saying this will develop) and one day Katrina formed after he said no way...an I have not seen him since..LOL

What I see on this forum are a lot of people who just cannot wait for that next storm. They want to believe that any puff of clouds in the tropics will be the next big hurricane. One might call that, well, that's considered a "bad word" here. ;-)

Oh, I was there once years ago when I was a kid. I wanted the next storm to develop so badly that I could taste it. Shear? What shear? Surely the shear will weaken! I need a storm now! But I'm in a position now that requires me to brief people who are making decisions that could cost them over a BILLION dollars! So I have to be very careful what I say about potential development in the tropics.

Believe me, when I see something that really looks like a threat to develop I'll be all over it here. If I'm bullish on development, you'd better pay attention.

HurricaneHunter914 · #398 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:22 am

But this is right now moving probably at around 5-10 mph, so I'm sure our fellow Texans will have a dry 4th of July.

#399 Postby **Starburst** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:26 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:But this is right now moving probably at around 5-10 mph, so I'm sure our fellow Texans will have a dry 4th of July.

Not according to our NWS it will be everything but dry :wink:

vaffie · #400 Postby **vaffie** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:27 am

It's moving 10 degrees west of due north now (at 350 degrees) at 4 knots (5 miles per hour). It is no longer moving towards Mexico. The center is 100 miles from land. Look at the latest models data on page 18.

mtm4319 wrote:How quickly is this moving? It looks like it won't have enough time to do anything before hitting Mexico.

Edit: just saw the models on the previous page... in any case, land interaction is going to hurt its chances, without seeing shear maps or anything else of the sort.

94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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