Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[skysummit]

00z Guidance:

[rnbaida]

I really think the latest GFDL has this thing on lockdown.... I bet this model will outperform all the other models and will guide this system to its final destination.

[skysummit]

Notice in my plot above, the 00z BAM brothers moved north again.

[SWFLA_CANE]

We will see if the models keep trending north.

[LaBreeze]

Hey HouTXmetro - pop some more popcorn and let's share a bag. I'm with you on the popcorn and wait scenario. A little more butter please.

[johngaltfla]

I would say we have a tropical storm. NRL has just renamed it 05L_NONAME...

That means it's a TD. If it changes to 05L_ERNESTO then that will mean it's a storm.

Thanks...that's right; it's been a while, I thought they were updating it now and that the winds were upgraded.

My bad.

[Josephine96]

those 2 blue ones have me concerned.. It almost seems like they see it possibly going N or NE into Fla at the end of the period..

[Air Force Met]

AFM,

What are your thoughts on #5 right now and what do you see for the future?

It has to survive the shear first....which it should do. It has about a 75% chance of doing that. Then, all bets are off. The ridge pattern is evolving. I think everywhere east of NOLA is safe...but it is too early to say. I also think the ridge will be weak enough to allow for a CONUS landfall. So basically, LA/TX. If this storm wasn't sitting at 13N...say it was at 16N or 17N...then Al/MS...WFL would possibly be in play....depending on the ridge pattern.

Remember...upper lows can form (and this is their year) and are not well predicted by the models. You can get one form and stick somewhere and it could drive a stronger...more verticle storm more to the north.

[chrisnnavarre]

Ivan II, well like someone posted the other day, they are having a crab jubilee over in Mobile. I wonder if we're going to see those weird shark gatherings along the Florida coast like the last time we were wacked.

[SouthFloridawx]

It also seems to be drawing in some dry air from the S. American Contintent.

[Cape Verde]

This is the kind of storm that S2K thrives on. Differing models, a long ways out, much uncertainty.

It's really during these early periods where I learn the most about forecasting and tropical systems. Chris blew my mind by being stripped naked by the sheer.

I don't contribute much to the forum in the way of expertise. I'm more likely to ask a question than offer an opinion. But this storm definitely has my attention. Any storm with a potential model forecast to shoot the Yucatan into the Gulf always will.

[Bailey1777]

Thank's. Like I said earlier the models can say whatever they want I want to hear it from you, Derek, WXMAN57, and our other pro-mets. People listen to the met's.

[ronjon]

If you can believe any model right now - the GFS looks like it actually stalls the system in the southern GOM in the 6-7 day time frame and then slowly meanders it north-northeast into the central gulf cost. It doesn't develop the cyclone so I don't know how valid the simulation is. It looks like a trough and cut-off low develops near memphis and keeps general troughiness over the deep south during this period. The 500 mb ridge is broad and flat over the GOM so it might be reasonable for this storm to really slow down as steering currents weaken in the 6-7 day time frame.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

I wouldn't trust a model that did not initialize the system in the 0000 frame. If it doesn't show the cyclone now, then it is likely it is having problems with it down the road.

Yeah I realize it doesn't initialize the storm but it keeps some vorticity where the storm is going. I think my main point here is the evolution of the upper air pattern in that it is hinting at a weakness along the central gulf coast which may be the reason we're seeing the model runs shifting to the north.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Hmm. The shear is confusing me. Some people say that there isn't a lot and others say there is a substantial amount.

On the Tropical Update on TWC, Jim said that was some shear that could possibly blow the thunderstorms away. He also said that the shear was moving westward so it didn't seem like it would make a HUGE impact on the TD.. or at least not destroy it completely.

Thoughts?

[wxman57]

Just did a comparison of the 500mb ridge from the GFS...using last nights 00z run and today's 18z run.

The slide to the east continues. Whereas it looked last night like a monster ridge would be set up over the GOM and the steering would be STX or most probably MX...now the GFS is coming around (as it always overplays these ridges in these situations) and sliding it eastward more. The ridge is still anchored over FL. I never bought the ridge over the GoM like it was dipicted last night in the 00z run at 168 hours...that's just rare for the summer.

Old 29/18Z

New 29/18Z

Old 30/12Z

New 30/12Z

That's pretty much what the ECMWf has been forecasting, AFM. Greater risk to Texas and possibly LA. But with the high over Florida, I dont' expect the storm to move in that direction.

[SouthFloridawx]

If you can believe any model right now - the GFS looks like it actually stalls the system in the southern GOM in the 6-7 day time frame and then slowly meanders it north-northeast into the central gulf cost. It doesn't develop the cyclone so I don't know how valid the simulation is. It looks like a trough and cut-off low develops near memphis and keeps general troughiness over the deep south during this period. The 500 mb ridge is broad and flat over the GOM so it might be reasonable for this storm to really slow down as steering currents weaken in the 6-7 day time frame.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

I wouldn't trust a model that did not initialize the system in the 0000 frame. If it doesn't show the cyclone now, then it is likely it is having problems with it down the road.

Yeah I realize it doesn't initialize the storm but it keeps some vorticity where the storm is going. I think my main point here is the evolution of the upper air pattern in that it is hinting at a weakness along the central gulf coast which may be the reason we're seeing the model runs shifting to the north.

I have made comments about what your talking about here.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88679

[TheShrimper]

Well, looks like you have all the bases covered Airforce Met. Glad you narrowed it down for the rest of the posters. Myself, I'll just wait and see as I stated before.

[tailgater]

I'm not so sure this will even may it though the next few days. Looking at the shear ahead of it. I know this TUTT(ULL) is suppose to move out to the west, but I won't believe it till I actually see start pulling out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[skysummit]

Just did a comparison of the 500mb ridge from the GFS...using last nights 00z run and today's 18z run.

The slide to the east continues. Whereas it looked last night like a monster ridge would be set up over the GOM and the steering would be STX or most probably MX...now the GFS is coming around (as it always overplays these ridges in these situations) and sliding it eastward more. The ridge is still anchored over FL. I never bought the ridge over the GoM like it was dipicted last night in the 00z run at 168 hours...that's just rare for the summer.

Old 29/18Z

New 29/18Z

Old 30/12Z

New 30/12Z

That's pretty much what the ECMWf has been forecasting, AFM. Greater risk to Texas and possibly LA. But with the high over Florida, I dont' expect the storm to move in that direction.

Could this be why the latest tropical models shifted north a bit?

[wxman57]

Could this be why the latest tropical models shifted north a bit?

Just beware what model you're looking at. Ignore the BAM models in this dynamic situation. They won't see the changing pattern. The dynamic models show a ridge over Florida, but a tad more east than yesterday. Track toward Texas looks like a good bet, but LA is not out of the woods by any means. Anywhere from northern Mexico to Mobile Bay is a possibility.