Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

#381 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:04 am

looks so similar to Ivan, Charley, and Dennis over the next 3-4 days.

#382 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:04 am

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200608 Jeff masters thinks we have Ernesto

#383 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:05 am

wxman57 wrote:I got some new 12Z model data plotted now - no more 6z models. I think we're pretty sure about the track over the next 3-4 days. But confidence is VERY LOW where it may strike on the Gulf coast. Anywhere from northern Mexico to the FL Panhandle is possible.

So do you believe it will survive any shear that may impact it and make it into the GOM as a hurricane?

Thunder44 · #384 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:12 am

KatDaddy wrote:Outflow boundaries pushing outward on the NW and N side of TD 5. Shear will begin taking its toll on TD 5.......poof on the way.........

That is too be expected since the TUTT is just to North and West. There is plenty of inflow coming from the South and West. There will be no rapid intensification but no "poof" either.

#385 Postby **MWatkins** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:15 am

Looks like we will not have a TS at 11AM...going to have to wait for recon which will fly in the next forecast cycle (this afternoon). I would guess they are waiting to see if the deep thunderstorms are over the center as opposed to sitting on the northeastern edge of it.

MW

NESDIS Met · #386 Postby **NESDIS Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:15 am

Shear the only limiting factor at this time...if TD 5 exists on Sat evening in a state of organization similar to, or any better than, what we see this morning, we believe an intense Hurricane Ernesto will threaten the Central/Western US Gulf Coast late next week. I'm happy to respond to specific inquiries.

#387 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:15 am

AtlanticWind wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=479&tstamp=200608 Jeff masters thinks we have Ernesto

Well officially Jeff Masters is incorrect...we'll have to wait for a plane.

The center is very hard to find.

CajunMama · #388 Postby **CajunMama** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:16 am

A reminder... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88664

Thunder44 · #389 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:17 am

Air Force Met wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=479&tstamp=200608 Jeff masters thinks we have Ernesto

Well officially Jeff Masters is incorrect...we'll have to wait for a plane.

The center is very hard to find.

Chad Myers at CNN just a little while also thought it would be named at 11am.

miamicanes177 · #390 Postby **miamicanes177** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:18 am

Air Force Met wrote:Well officially Jeff Masters is incorrect...we'll have to wait for a plane.

Did you get access to the 11AM advisory already?

cajungal · #391 Postby **cajungal** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:19 am

wxman57 wrote:I got some new 12Z model data plotted now - no more 6z models. I think we're pretty sure about the track over the next 3-4 days. But confidence is VERY LOW where it may strike on the Gulf coast. Anywhere from northern Mexico to the FL Panhandle is possible.

I want to thank you wxman57 for taking your extra time to post these and keep up with the boards along with your busy life. Thanks to all the pro mets. You are all really helpful and I enjoy reading your posts and opinions.

NONAME · #392 Postby **NONAME** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:19 am

MWatkins wrote:Looks like we will not have a TS at 11AM...going to have to wait for recon which will fly in the next forecast cycle (this afternoon). I would guess they are waiting to see if the deep thunderstorms are over the center as opposed to sitting on the northeastern edge of it.

MW

What makes you come up to that conclusion.

boca · #393 Postby **boca** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:19 am

At least this won't be a Florida storm for once looking at the models were looking good here in SE Florida.

#394 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:19 am

It's amazing how many different opinions we have from Mets on the same system. Some think it will be named at 11 and others don't. Isn't everyone looking at the same data?

#395 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:20 am

The speculation about if at 11 AM it will be upgraded or not will end in a few minutes.My guess is that and yes I am speculating now

they will wait for recon this afternoon.

Stratosphere747 · #396 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:20 am

I've yet to see a Met on this site say it would be upgraded....

#397 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:21 am

Thunder44 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=479&tstamp=200608 Jeff masters thinks we have Ernesto

Well officially Jeff Masters is incorrect...we'll have to wait for a plane.

The center is very hard to find.

Chad Myers at CNN just a little while also thought it would be named at 11am.

Well...Chad Myers is wrong too, it won't be.

#398 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:21 am

boca wrote:At least this won't be a Florida storm for once looking at the models were looking good here in SE Florida.

I hope it's NOT a Texas or Louisiana storm either. I'm still hoping the shear gets the best of TD5.

#399 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:22 am

miamicanes177 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:Well officially Jeff Masters is incorrect...we'll have to wait for a plane.
Did you get access to the 11AM advisory already?

I can neither confirm nor deny that.

#400 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:23 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:I've yet to see a Met on this site say it would be upgraded....

Not on this board but in the media.

Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

Shear the only limiting factor at this time...

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