TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[skysummit]

These new runs just continue to show HIGH uncertainty once it reaches the gulf.

[Brent]

Dismay.....I dont like the look of this.....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Bad, Bad, Bad GFDL.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Please..

[Noles2006]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_model.html


NOLA/AL/MS you are on the clock.

... and judging by those plots, don't think you can count out the western Florida Panhandle.

[SouthFloridawx]

Need the latest GFDL??

[AL Chili Pepper]

Wow....that does look like Ivan.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

THE GFDL is on this map.

[Stormcenter]

Chat room please with some of these comments.

Anyway, new GFDL out and a significant shift east. N.O. near the projected path. Anyone have a plot w/ those coordinates above?

I actually think this is good news for N.O. as it continues to shift eastward. I got a gut feeling this has something to do with the "front" that has been discussed recently forecasted by some models to make into the GOM by mid-week.

[TSmith274]

This is crazy... back EAST!!! I gotta hit the sack, but I'd suspect the next NHC track to shift slightly right. Then, let the media barrage begin.

[Derek Ortt]

the error on a 5 day forecast is about 300NM

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Need the latest GFDL??

Thanks. How updated is this run?

[Noles2006]

What kind of strength is the GFDL showing?

[Droop12]

Yep, like I've been saying, we should focus on intensity for now because models will shift 15 more times between now and Monday. Everyone thought this was a Texas storm just 4 hours ago, What now? Looks like a Central GC hit to me, possibly a similar track as Ivan.

[PTPatrick]

Uncertainty is the word...I think they will slow it down in the central gulf with the 5AM, possible hinting a slight NNW jog. But with this still 6 days away NHC is not going to go out on a limb and cause panic. They are going to make damn sure that there is some model consistence with this I think before pointing it at NOLA's general direction in the 4-5 day periods

[Stormcenter]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

THE GFDL is on this map.

Thank you HouTXmetro.

[SouthFloridawx]

KFDM Meteorologist it is the 00Z run.

[HouTXmetro]

These new runs just continue to show HIGH uncertainty once it reaches the gulf.

Looks like they are coming into agreement if you ask me.

[jasons2k]

The GFDL is sensing the trough off of the GFS run. It will go the way of the GFS until it has a better handle on the ridge/trough setup for next week. It will lilkely see-saw for the next 3 or 4 days, so nobody should feel relieved/panicked off a single set of runs.

Goodnite all.......

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thanks SO FL. The run before that the GFDL had it hitting Galveston as a 4.

[melhow]

St. Pete checkin in here...I guess it's time to make sure the blackout-buddy is plugged in and that my nay-sayer husband has my full attention...recurve makes me jittery...