TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[PTPatrick]

Looks lake the latest satellite image has it almost trying to wrap around a center...if you look there is now a lot of convection wrapping around the NW side.

[Noles2006]

yep, Florida is looking less and less likely as the time goes on. If it's going to hit Florida it better start the turn right now, because there will be nothing to turn it that way later. ..The dynamic models are the best to use here...

The panhandle is part of Florida, too... and the models that show a panhandle hit don't turn it for a few days. It doesn't have to turn now to hit Florida.

[WeatherEmperor]

ConvergenceZone, how come you think a FL hit is becoming less likely now?

<RICKY>

[rnbaida]

has the new GFDL come out yet?

[Blown Away]

GFDL and models shift west and NHC shifts dramatically east, I don't understand. I did hear Bryan Norcross say he thought the eastern gulf including the FL west coast needed to really pay attention now.

[Stormcenter]

yep, Florida is looking less and less likely as the time goes on. If it's going to hit Florida it better start the turn right now, because there will be nothing to turn it that way later. ..The dynamic models are the best to use here...

How in the world do you come to that conclusion? Ernesto is not even in the GOM yet.

[Noles2006]

GFDL and models shift west and NHC shifts dramatically east, I don't understand. I did hear Bryan Norcross say he thought the eastern gulf including the FL west coast needed to really pay attention now.

The recent models that have shifted to the west came out after the NHC's 5:00 advisory.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

So when will the naughty GFS have the data put into it that will correct its mistaken ways?



http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

[Weatherfreak000]

Here's what I think about the situation.



The ULL infront of Ernesto appears to be lifting out quickly and moving south. This motion with the high building over Florida should probably force the system to be squeezed between the two. In fact, i'm really leaving toward the BAMM solution. That model run has the system getting squeezed West near the Yucatan and then feeling the Trough and getting pushed up.


Seems like the best Model Run out there right now IS the BAMM, imo.

[Trugunzn]

Hi every1 I havnt been here all day, so can someone summarrize what is happening to Ernesto and the current track is and what the the models are trending now? Ireally dont wanna read over 100 pages. Thak u!

[ConvergenceZone]

yep, Florida is looking less and less likely as the time goes on. If it's going to hit Florida it better start the turn right now, because there will be nothing to turn it that way later. ..The dynamic models are the best to use here...

The panhandle is part of Florida, too... and the models that show a panhandle hit don't turn it for a few days. It doesn't have to turn now to hit Florida.

Yea I should have made mysels more clear. I meant SOUTH Florida is looking less and less likely with each passing hour.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z models still look to be all over the place. Some models have have shifted east, and some west:

[Wx_Warrior]

next gfdl is at midnight CST

[PTPatrick]

and, dont think it has been posted, the GFDL is now showing a low end cat 3 I think...pressure about 948 ...headed about due north toward the general vicinity of Gulf shores, AL. BUt since it stops there you can really tell if it turns it northeast or not.

Also, if the trip over western cuba, doesnt pan out i think this "could" be a little stronger at that point.

[Noles2006]

PTP - the text plots showed the direction changing from 342 degrees to 6 degrees in the last two plots... sure looks to me that it's indicating the storm making a move to the NE... albeit very slowly.

[ConvergenceZone]

ConvergenceZone, how come you think a FL hit is becoming less likely now?

<RICKY>

again, I meant SOUTH Florida, because with each passing hour, the sharper of a turn towards the north it would have to make, and so obviously that would be less and less likely.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The CONU has shifted to near NOLA.

[Rainband]

yep, Florida is looking less and less likely as the time goes on. If it's going to hit Florida it better start the turn right now, because there will be nothing to turn it that way later. ..The dynamic models are the best to use here...

The panhandle is part of Florida, too... and the models that show a panhandle hit don't turn it for a few days. It doesn't have to turn now to hit Florida.

Save your breath. I have been gone all day and I came home and read most of all the posts. Read between the lines and you can see what I mean. Sad really after the past few seasons. I just wonder if any of the people I am talking about realize how they look to everyone else. The only thing for certain right now is Uncertainity. Weather can't be contolled it is going to happen how it happens. The fact that you want a storm doesn't mean your going to get it. Sorry for the rant but some of these posts are really annoying and a waste of space.

[robbielyn]

Shouldn't there be an 8 PM advisory?

on page 17 or 18 of this thread

[CourierPR]

Convergence-Zone, with all due respect, the storm is southeast of Florida and currently heading northwest.