Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

cheezyWXguy · #381 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:38 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Wouldn't you like to be out there in that eye in a Recon? Talk about a nice stadium effect?

No stadium effect just yet. Stadium effect usually occurs only with the strongest Cat 4's and 5's.

What is "stadium effect"?

#382 Postby **fci** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:39 pm

Since she seems to be "bombing" and looking quite impressive; all the more reason to just monitor the models' evolution

When she is a Cat 3 or more; just taking everyones "word" that she will recurve is not enough.

And models 5-10 days out don't mean much either.
So until she takes the permanent turn;
Watch
Wait
Conject and Guess
Argue
Watch S2K

WeatherTracker · #383 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:39 pm

Does Helene's intensity affect where she goes?

#384 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:40 pm

fci wrote:Since she seems to be "bombing" and looking quite impressive; all the more reason to just monitor the models' evolution

When she is a Cat 3 or more; just taking everyones "word" that she will recurve is not enough.

And models 5-10 days out don't mean much either.
So until she takes the permanent turn;
Watch
Wait
Conject and Guess
Argue
Watch S2K

You said it the best.

WeatherTracker · #385 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:44 pm

Great Look!!!!!

#386 Postby **fci** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:44 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:So far every hurricane that forms outperforms the one before:

Ernesto: 75 mph
Florence: 90 mph
Gordon: 120 mph
Helene: 105 mph (as of now, maybe cat. 4 when everything is set on stone!!!)

I noticed that...boy, just wait till we get to the M or N storm

Not this year, my boy......

#387 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:47 pm

What I haved noticed in the loops is that Helene is not moving very fast.

#388 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:What I haved noticed in the loops is that Helene is not moving very fast.

Interesting point, talking about track we have not mentioned how foward motion could influence the track.
Faster motion=?
Slower motion=?
Stalling=?

trugunz · #389 Postby **trugunz** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:50 pm

Look at this loop is it going due north?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-avn.html

pgoss11 · #390 Postby **pgoss11** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:53 pm

Maybe Helene is making an early escape

sma10 · #391 Postby **sma10** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:What I haved noticed in the loops is that Helene is not moving very fast.

...and she has much more northerly component than I expected.

#392 Postby **hial2** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:53 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Scorpion wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Wouldn't you like to be out there in that eye in a Recon? Talk about a nice stadium effect?

No stadium effect just yet. Stadium effect usually occurs only with the strongest Cat 4's and 5's.

What is "stadium effect"?

Think of looking down from a blimp at a professional football game...and compare that "stadium"view to the eye of a strong hurricane...

BTW, a Dolphins game does NOT qualify as a professional football game :grr:

ronjon · #393 Postby **ronjon** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:57 pm

Here's a cool loop:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

#394 Postby **fci** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:00 pm

hial2 wrote:
BTW, a Dolphins game does NOT qualify as a professional football game

Ouch!

You're are so right about today's......
But the weather was beautiful and a sun tan was had...

(I know this is NOT a sports forum, my last comment about Sports!!)

#395 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:00 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060918 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060918 0000 060918 1200 060919 0000 060919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.3N 49.2W 22.3N 50.4W 22.9N 51.8W 23.0N 53.2W
BAMM 21.3N 49.2W 22.4N 50.7W 22.9N 52.2W 22.9N 53.9W
A98E 21.3N 49.2W 22.1N 50.1W 22.8N 51.1W 23.4N 52.3W
LBAR 21.3N 49.2W 22.4N 50.3W 23.2N 51.6W 23.5N 53.6W
SHIP 100KTS 105KTS 107KTS 106KTS
DSHP 100KTS 105KTS 107KTS 106KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060920 0000 060921 0000 060922 0000 060923 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 54.9W 24.7N 58.2W 27.2N 60.6W 28.4N 62.7W
BAMM 22.8N 55.8W 23.6N 59.5W 24.6N 61.2W 25.1N 61.6W
A98E 23.5N 54.1W 24.0N 58.2W 25.4N 61.9W 23.3N 64.7W
LBAR 23.6N 56.0W 24.6N 60.4W 26.6N 62.3W 29.9N 65.0W
SHIP 106KTS 95KTS 87KTS 77KTS
DSHP 106KTS 95KTS 87KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 49.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 20.4N LONM12 = 48.5W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.4N LONM24 = 47.1W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 962MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM

$$
00:00z Models start at 100kts.

#396 Postby **fci** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:01 pm

ronjon wrote:Here's a cool loop:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Very cool and a definite north move in the loop.

(seems like a game of "follow the wobble" may ensue......)

YouTube · #397 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:10 pm

What a contrast to last season when we wondered "where" not "if". Oh, and we wondered "how strong" and "how bad" too. Not so much this year- not at all.

Scorpion · #398 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:15 pm

Count on this being at least 110 kt at 5 AM. That's if the NHC is conservative, but in reality it will be closer to 120.

WeatherTracker · #399 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:43 pm

#400 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:44 pm

SHIPS has it at 100kt now too...

Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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