SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The gulf stream pumped it into Andrea, but its moving out of it now. With a report right off florida of only 72 degree water. So I expect it to start weaking now.

[tailgater]

Good news for most of Fla.

24hr forecast http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
48 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
72 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
Notice the trough extending north from the Caribbean, could enhance rain chances for S. fla. also.

[KatDaddy]

Storm #1. We are off to the races.

[Damar91]

According to those maps, with the high pressure in the Gulf, it doesn't seem that Andrea wil be going anywhere soon. Could be very good for us....

[NDG]

The gulf stream pumped it into Andrea, but its moving out of it now. With a report right off florida of only 72 degree water. So I expect it to start weaking now.

Not that fast, she's barely moving at 5 mph, so she still has plenty of SST in the mid to upper 70s (warm enough for a weak subtropical system) to go through.

[tgenius]

According to those maps, with the high pressure in the Gulf, it doesn't seem that Andrea wil be going anywhere soon. Could be very good for us....

you referring to us as State of Fl or specifically for South FL? The air around here is smoky smelling too

[Damar91]

According to those maps, with the high pressure in the Gulf, it doesn't seem that Andrea wil be going anywhere soon. Could be very good for us....

you referring to us as State of Fl or specifically for South FL? The air around here is smoky smelling too

Basically the state as a whole, but if it does wind up moving south, it could help us down here as well. I know what you mean about the smoke though. My wife and I went to walk the dog last night and she thought something around here was on fire because the smoke was so thick.....

[Stormcenter]

:eek: It's gonna be a long season.

Nah probably just the opposite.

I would take 30 Andreas in one season compared to one Katrina or Rita.
Anyway this really is nothing to write home about but I guess it's a good drill
for the NHC folks.

[Grease Monkey]

:eek: It's gonna be a long season.

Nah probably just the opposite.

I would take 30 Andreas in one season compared to one Katrina or Rita.
Anyway this really nothing to write home about but I guess it's a good drill
for the NHC folks.

Why do you think it means the opposite? Just curious.

[Stratusxpeye]

First one of the season.

[Stormcenter]

:eek: It's gonna be a long season.

Nah probably just the opposite.

I would take 30 Andreas in one season compared to one Katrina or Rita.
Anyway this really nothing to write home about but I guess it's a good drill
for the NHC folks.

Why do you think it means the opposite? Just curious.

I really believe it will be an average season with 11-12 storms despite
this early start and not anything like 2005. But please remember if we have
11 or 12 Katrina type storms then yes it would still be a long season even though
the numbers were lower than 2005. It's all about the strength and not the number of
storms and also whether or not they ever make landfall.

['CaneFreak]

:eek: It's gonna be a long season.

Nah probably just the opposite.

I would take 30 Andreas in one season compared to one Katrina or Rita.
Anyway this really nothing to write home about but I guess it's a good drill
for the NHC folks.

Why do you think it means the opposite? Just curious.

I can answer that: statistically when you have an early start to a hurricane season, that usually indicates a lower number of overall storms. AGAIN, THAT IS STATISTICALLY!!!

[skysummit]

Finally Text!


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC WED MAY 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070509 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070509 1200 070510 0000 070510 1200 070511 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 79.1W 31.2N 80.6W 31.1N 81.9W 30.8N 83.0W
BAMD 30.8N 79.1W 30.8N 79.8W 30.5N 80.4W 30.1N 80.9W
BAMM 30.8N 79.1W 31.0N 80.2W 30.7N 81.2W 30.3N 82.1W
LBAR 30.8N 79.1W 31.2N 79.3W 31.8N 79.5W 32.3N 79.5W
SHIP 40KTS 38KTS 38KTS 39KTS
DSHP 40KTS 38KTS 38KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070511 1200 070512 1200 070513 1200 070514 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.4N 84.0W 29.9N 85.6W 29.4N 87.3W 29.3N 90.1W
BAMD 29.8N 81.3W 30.4N 81.9W 30.5N 81.9W 29.8N 78.3W
BAMM 29.9N 82.9W 29.9N 84.4W 29.5N 86.0W 29.2N 88.2W
LBAR 33.0N 79.4W 34.2N 77.5W 34.8N 70.2W 36.4N 57.9W
SHIP 41KTS 49KTS 55KTS 58KTS
DSHP 41KTS 48KTS 54KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 79.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 30.6N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 77.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM

[jdray]

Not to go offtrack much, but the TPC @ Sawgrass moved their game from March to May due to winds and such.

How ironic would it be if they had to cancel/postpone TPC their first year in May due to high winds?

[Stormcenter]

:eek: It's gonna be a long season.

Nah probably just the opposite.

I would take 30 Andreas in one season compared to one Katrina or Rita.
Anyway this really nothing to write home about but I guess it's a good drill
for the NHC folks.

Why do you think it means the opposite? Just curious.

I can answer that: statistically when you have an early start to a hurricane season, that usually indicates a lower number of overall storms. AGAIN, THAT IS STATISTICALLY!!!

Thanks Canefreak.

[LaBreeze]

To my Florida friends, I do hope that you get the rainfall that you so desperately need.

[Noah]

Subtropical means?

[CrazyC83]

Right now I am sensing an around-and-out track...slowly inching towards NE Florida, possibly making landfall, then the oncoming front turns it back into the Atlantic, racing it out to sea...

[tracyswfla]

Subtropical means?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_cyclone

That link is a good one.

[NFLnut]

Basically the state as a whole, but if it does wind up moving south, it could help us down here as well. I know what you mean about the smoke though. My wife and I went to walk the dog last night and she thought something around here was on fire because the smoke was so thick.....

The air is white up in north Orlando. We don't have falling ash yet, but it is a reminder of 1998 when half of north and central Florida was on fire. You'd almost think that there was a major house fire a block away the air smells so bad! I live on a large swamp and I worry every time we have a drought, especially around Fourth of July or any other time that neighbors shoot off fireworks, I fear that some moron is going to set the swamp and my house on fire.

We need this storm to pump up more rain, because so far, it's been dry as a bone.