Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

Thunder44 · #381 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:17 am

I also believe it is the center that moving NE of the buoy 41010. And I only mentioned the smoke because there's alot of more it today and it surrounding much of the storm now, if you look at visiblie imagery. It may be prohibiting much convection forming on the south and west side of center. On visibile there are also hints of anticyclonic flow aloft now.

Anyway the new recon plan of day came out. They did not schedule another flight on Sunday but they may have one on Monday. No statement was made on today's flight, so I assume they are going ahead with it:

Code: Select all

021 
NOUS42 KNHC 121500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 12 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z MAY 2007
         TCPOD NUMBER.....07-005

  I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION INTO
        ANDREA NEAR 31N AND 70W FOR 14/1800Z IF SYSTEM IS
        A THREAT.

#382 Postby **NDG** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:23 am

Thunder44 wrote:I also believe it is the center that moving NE of the buoy 41010. And I only mentioned the smoke because there's alot of more it today and it surrounding much of the storm now, if you look at visiblie imagery. It may be prohibiting much convection forming on the south and west side of center. On visibile there are also hints of anticyclonic flow aloft now.

Yeah, I agree also about the smoke capping up the atmosphere up a bit.

#383 Postby **AnnularCane** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:24 am

OuterBanker wrote:Who knows, she might just hang around long enough for the start of the hurricane season. But I just wish that she would stay out long enough to build some moisture and head into Fla and then into Ga. The dream scenerio.

She seems to be trying to anyway. Does smoke have any effect on these storms?

Oh, maybe that last question was answered. I think.

#384 Postby **NDG** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:31 am

AnnularCane wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:Who knows, she might just hang around long enough for the start of the hurricane season. But I just wish that she would stay out long enough to build some moisture and head into Fla and then into Ga. The dream scenerio.

She seems to be trying to anyway. Does smoke have any effect on these storms?

Oh, maybe that last question was answered. I think.

No, I don't think that the smoke has a direct effect on a storm, but inderectly it does, right near the area of low pressure center there is enough lift created that the smoke does not matter either way, some argue if anything it helps to create water dropplets, away from the center where there is less lifting by converging winds, it caps the atmosphere, IMO.

Thunder44 · #385 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:37 am

Recon been cancelled due to "resource issues". The storm is getting better organized as I thought.

000
WONT41 KNHC 121534
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO RESOURCE ISSUES.

INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

#386 Postby **wjs3** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:38 am

Wow.

Incredible. I stand corrected on my earlier comments re: outflow. Thanks for setting me straight, guys.

WJS3

#387 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:41 am

wjs3 wrote:Wow.

Incredible. I stand corrected on my earlier comments re: outflow. Thanks for setting me straight, guys.

WJS3

This is called learning. ALL of us do it here. It is one of the great things about this site!!!

Even I, a seasoned(old) tropics watcher did not expect the new discussion that just came out!!!! Shows I still have things to learn!!

#388 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:43 am

Resource issues? Is that monetary issues or other kind of resources?

#389 Postby **wjs3** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:46 am

vbhoutex wrote:
wjs3 wrote:Wow.

Incredible. I stand corrected on my earlier comments re: outflow. Thanks for setting me straight, guys.

WJS3

This is called learning. ALL of us do it here. It is one of the great things about this site!!!

Even I, a seasoned(old) tropics watcher did not expect the new discussion that just came out!!!! Shows I still have things to learn!!

I agree. It's a great thing about the place and one of the reasons I try to be here a lot!

Thunder44 · #390 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:48 am

HURAKAN wrote:Resource issues? Is that monetary issues or other kind of resources?

They are just no prepared for it for some reason. It is out of season and a weekend, you know. The people needed may have other plans.

HUC · #391 Postby **HUC** » Sat May 12, 2007 10:59 am

Also,they forecast a track to the NEst???I hope these problems should not caused any missing in intensity or track near the Antillies.
Perhaps also,this the reason they put a lot of buoys anywhere????Really some questions to answer.....

Opal storm · #392 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat May 12, 2007 11:01 am

Looks like a TD already.

#393 Postby **pojo** » Sat May 12, 2007 11:04 am

CrazyC83 wrote:So are they flying into it?

Check for TSPOD first please...

#394 Postby **pojo** » Sat May 12, 2007 11:07 am

OuterBanker wrote:Who knows, she might just hang around long enough for the start of the hurricane season. But I just wish that she would stay out long enough to build some moisture and head into Fla and then into Ga. The dream scenerio.

She's a good training mission (some of us need to be requal'd on wx missions)

Thunder44 · #395 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat May 12, 2007 11:10 am

HUC wrote:Also,they forecast a track to the NEst???I hope these problems should not caused any missing in intensity or track near the Antillies.
Perhaps also,this the reason they put a lot of buoys anywhere????Really some questions to answer.....

It should generally head slowly NE or ENE out to sea. But this may threaten Bermuda early next week, on it's way out.

#396 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat May 12, 2007 11:33 am

I think it is a TD. I wish they had sent that mission out.

Opal storm · #397 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat May 12, 2007 11:36 am

fact789 wrote:I think it is a TD. I wish they had sent that mission out.

I'm sure they had good reason not to.And besides it's not like this is a immediate threat.

Chacor · #398 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 12, 2007 11:37 am

"Resource issues", eh? Getting close to a TD definitely.

Chacor · #399 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 12, 2007 11:37 am

Latest...

12/1215 UTC 29.1N 78.5W T1.5/1.5 ANDREA -- Atlantic Ocean

#400 Postby **AnnularCane** » Sat May 12, 2007 11:42 am

She could still be upgraded again. Lots of storms have been upgraded (or downgraded) without a recon.

Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

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