Tropical Depression Barry Main Thread

[NDG]

By the way Barry is moving he could very well pay me a visit here in Orlando, and the worst thing the sun is coming out to make things worst.

[JonathanBelles]

Are you in Shore Acres TBH?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Are you in Shore Acres TBH?

No I'm just outside of it on slightly higher ground...I live
on a street that is separated from shore acres by
the 40th avenue bridge that goes into shore
acres.
I lived in the lower parts of shore acres until 1996
when TS Josephine flooded us badly I remember
walking in deep water around my house back then.

[cycloneye]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
916 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

GMZ830-853-021345-
/O.CON.KTBW.MA.W.0028.000000T0000Z-070602T1345Z/
916 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT FOR THE
TAMPA BAY WATERS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
FL OUT 20 NM ...

AT 916 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CONTAINING A WATERSPOUT...OVER PORT MANATEE REEF...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HILLSBOROUGH BAY BY 940 AM EDT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY!

MARINERS CAN ALSO EXPECT LOCALLY HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY.

PLEASE REPORT WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 34 KNOTS OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OF LARGER...AND ANY VESSEL DAMAGE
TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323.
A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

[NDG]

Barry should move on shore around 11 AM, by the way is looking near Bradenton.

[wxman57]

That map has to be wrong, I do not have TS force winds.

It is just a general idea of the general wind field. Does not mean every one is expericening these winds. remember this info is based on the recon flights that say tropical storm force winds extend 90 miles north & east of the center. (see NHC latest adv. @ 8:00am) Hope this helps.

Actually, the problem with that graphic and the NHC advisories is that Barry may not have TS force winds anywhere near the center. Possibly in a tiny area just north of the center. I'm finding a few TS winds about 150-180 miles east of the center off the east coast of Florida. But these hurricane programs only allow you to input a single wind radius for each quadrant. You can't draw in a tiny area of TS winds north of Barry's center and then a sliver of TS winds just off the east coast of Florida, which would be closer to what's actually being observed. So programs like HurrTrak will greatly overestimate surface winds around the center with weak, sheared storms.

Even though the recon plane found over 50 kts aloft, it's unlikely that there are any 50 mph winds at the surface. With a highly-sheared storm like Barry which is undergoing extratropical ltransition, the wind reduction factor could be as low as 50-60%. Observations near the center along the west coast of Florida show a max of 30 kts in/near one of the heavier squalls.

So inland locations across Florida will likely see sustained winds no more than 20-25 mph. Squalls near Tampa northward up the coast for 100 miles could produce brief gusts to 50-60 mph, though. Any TS-force wind that might exist off the west coast of Florida will not penetrate inland.

[wxman57]

Barry should move on shore around 11 AM, by the way is looking near Bradenton.

I'm having a very hard time finding a LLC, but I THINK I see it right on the coast near Clearwater at 9:45am EDT. Definitely less organized than an hour or two ago.

[caneman]

Barry should move on shore around 11 AM, by the way is looking near Bradenton.

I'm having a very hard time finding a LLC, but I THINK I see it right on the coast near Clearwater at 9:45am EDT. Definitely less organized than an hour or two ago.

Bay NEws 9 reporting Landfall at Lcw Beach and Indian Rocks. Take a look outside if your in the area. Very broad obviously. Winds should pick up soon.

[cycloneye]

And recon found a higher pressure,1002 mbs and 44kts at East Quad in the last Vortex Message,a sign of weakening and making the transition to extratropical rapidly.

[Chacor]

The NHC will probably pass Barry on to the HPC at 11 am if it makes landfall, don't think it'll become tropical again over water so clearly this will become a HPC storm. Looking at the track forecast can't help but wonder what it's going to do in the NE US.

Ironically enough... SAB has just issued its highest rating on Barry yet.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1145 UTC 26.7N 83.3W T1.5/1.5 BARRY
02/0545 UTC 25.1N 84.6W TOO WEAK BARRY
01/2345 UTC 24.2N 85.1W TOO WEAK BARRY
01/1745 UTC 23.7N 85.8W T1.0/1.0 92L
01/1145 UTC 22.2N 85.9W T1.0/1.0 92L

[curtadams]

The last vortex center is 2720N 08252W which is coming ashore near *Sarasota*, south of Tampa bay. Matches the updraft on radar.

[Chacor]

Looking at the Cuban Met Service... some rain reports:

Aviso de Ciclón Tropical.
Centro de Pronósticos, INSMET.
Fecha: 2 de Junio de 2007. Hora: 6:01 A.M.

AVISO DE CICLON TROPICAL NO. 3.

TORMENTA TROPICAL BARRY.

... Las lluvias de Barry continúan afectando el centro del país...

Las lluvias asociadas a las bandas exteriores de la Tormenta Tropical Barry continúan afectado gran parte del archipiélago cubano con lluvias fuertes durante la madrugada, principalmente en la región central. Los mayores acumulados en las últimas seis horas fueron reportados por: Girón, Matanzas con 77 mm y Aguada de Pasajeros, Cienfuegos 57 mm.

A las seis de la mañana el centro de la Tormenta Tropical Barry se estimó en los 26.1 grados de latitud Norte y 84.1 grados de longitud Oeste, posición que lo sitúa a unos 265 kilómetros al Suroeste de Tampa, Florida.

Barry ha permanecido sin cambio significativo en su intensidad, sus vientos máximos sostenidos son de 85 kilómetros por hora, con rachas superiores y su presión central es de 997 hectoPascal.

La tormenta Tropical se mueve al Norte Nordeste incrementando su velocidad de traslación que ahora es de 24 kilómetros por hora.

Se pronostica que en las próximas 12 a 24 horas, mantendrá igual rumbo e incrementará su velocidad de traslación, debilitándose lentamente con posibilidades de perder características tropicales después de penetrar en tierra.

Este organismo no ofrece peligro para Cuba y sólo es de interés para la navegación en el área.

El próximo Aviso de Ciclón Tropical se emitirá al mediodía de hoy.

M. A. Hernández Y. Bermúdez.

[JonathanBelles]

29.59 was our lowest presure. 4/5 blue skies now

[TampaSteve]

Got a band of heavy rain with some thunder moving through the Tampa area right now.

Looks like the center of circulation is going to come in right over Tampa Bay.

Thank you, Barry! We'll take all the rain you got!

[JonathanBelles]

Now I think Barry will bring self destructive sunshine

[wxman57]

Now I can't see any sign of an LLC near Tampa. That LLC appears to have dissipated. I can see a broad LLC up near 28.3N/83.5W well NW of Tampa west of the band of convection. It would appear that Barry is transitioning to an extratropical storm.

[NDG]

Barry should move on shore around 11 AM, by the way is looking near Bradenton.

I'm having a very hard time finding a LLC, but I THINK I see it right on the coast near Clearwater at 9:45am EDT. Definitely less organized than an hour or two ago.

Don't you go by the Recon's fixes of the LLC? If not maybe you need to straighten out the NHC,

[miamicanes177]

Now I can't see any sign of an LLC near Tampa. That LLC appears to have dissipated. I can see a broad LLC up near 28.3N/83.5W well NW of Tampa west of the band of convection. It would appear that Barry is transitioning to an extratropical storm.

I know your having a hard time accepting this as you said yesterday morning it would not develop into anything. This remains tropical storm Barry with a closed LLC according to recon and the NHC. It should make landfall shortly.

[Janie2006]

I have to hand it to Barry. He held out longer than I thought.

[Chacor]

I don't see why this would remain considered a TS but for the burst of convection just north of the centre. I still am of the opinion that at 11 the NHC will issue its final adv on the now-landfalled storm and transfer warnings to the HPC.