Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[Recurve]

Thanks for the stability discussion and satellite read.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. Is is just the opinion of the poster and is not backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The WV might not be low level, but it shows dry air, as AFM pointed out the atmosphere's capped nearby. No explosion expected, needs more than a spark. Before it goes ashore, it'd have to drift north. Anyone seen signs of convergence or some divergence aloft? Rather than staring at satellites and red pixels, I'd like to see more great charts like WXman posted on 98L.

[Hyperstorm]

You know what I find funny? There is a small group of posters who only seem to post when convection has decreased. Where were you guys last night when it was blossoming? Where will you be tonight when the same happens again?

I totally expect convection to increase again at anytime later today and tonight. That would be foolish to think otherwise, especially when you know about the dynamics of tropical weather systems. However, if current trends are any indication, it would not be as pronounced and organized as last night, just as last night wasn't as organized as the previous night. And when I mean "organized", I dont' mean just a round blob of deep convection. I mean an organized structure all around.

We'll just have to wait and see...

I understand where you're coming from, however, how can you say it was less organized last night comparing to the previous night, when last night it was able to develop a defined LLC according to the NHC? Previously, all it had was an MLC.

Sorry the late reply. Yesterday, the system developed a defined MLC. Any increase of convection over a MLC usually will lead to pull the MLC closer to the surface. That's what happened, but that doesn't automatically make a system more organized. You have to have a combination of all things to make it organized enough. Any surface circulation with this system could have been a very transient feature, no longer identifiable on satellite.

As expected, the system has deteriorated quite a bit throughout the day today. Although a pulse of convection during the evening hours is almost always a given due to the nature of these systems, one should not expect it to be organized enough due to the not very favorable environment this system is embedded in, including but not limited to dry air, southerly low-mid level shear coming from NE South America, poor convergence, etc.

When this system reaches the central and western Caribbean conditions could improve and we'll need to monitor it more closely.

[Vigilant]

From Crown Weather Services (4:15 p.m. ET)

The tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands has become a lot less organized during the day today. Infared Satellite Imagery this afternoon shows a very disorganized system. This appears to be due to dry air intruding this system, erroding away the moist air that was around this system. Wind shear values in this area continue to run at between 5 and 10 knots, which in itself is favorable for tropical cyclone development. The various computer forecast guidance continue to be unexcited about this system and none of the global models develop it into a tropical cyclone. This is likely because there is quite a bit of dry air in the central and eastern Caribbean and anything that moves in there will likely be killed off. I am a lot less convinced this afternoon on whether this disturbance will become a tropical depression. I think the dry air will likely win out and nothing significant will come of this disturbance. With that said, residents and vacationers in the Windward Islands should pay attention to this system in the event it becomes a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the next day or two.

The tropical wave behind this first wave is also going to be monitored closely for signs of potential development. Afternoon Infared Satellite Imagery shows showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave interacting with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone between 30 and 40 West Longitude. Currently, these thunderstorms are not very concentrated and are showing no signs of development. The reason why this wave will need to be watched is because it is forecasted to move through an environment that is favorable for development over the next several days, in fact, the first wave between 50 and 60 West Longitude may act as a barrier against any dry air, which could make the environment for this wave even more favorable over the next few days. It is an item to look out for, but nothing of concern as of right now.

[HURAKAN]

There are very few systems every that don't struggle to get organized and become a cyclone. That's why every season we get the same CD stuck in the same song, meaning, "lets wait until tomorrow to see how responds to the diurnal maximum."

[Recurve]

Shear tendency:

[miamicanes177]

the wave behind this around 37W 9N is developing into an invest. Maybe 99L can clear the path for it.

[TheShrimper]

Who are the experts? Exclusively the ones that have "Pro Met" added under thier posting name? If you take that as gospel, you are quite mistaken. While they are compensated for thier knowledge dealing in the field of meteorology, that does not guarrantee that thier credentials should be carried over to areas they do NOT specialize in. Hey, I could be a respected, acclaimed and well compensated pediatrician, thats great but I don't think anyone wants me to be wielding the knife when a by-pass is in order. Nor do I want some "pro met" from Cutbank Montana, telling me that what he knows about tropical entities is undebatable. Over the past couple of years, they have proffessed "there is no chance at that happening", or "take this to the bank, this is what will transpire". If you posted over the past couple of tropical seasons you will remember the false claims that materialized, the claims that when debated after the fact sent some ( I won't mention names) into exile untill the clouds of humiliation dissapated. And that goes also for some from Miami-Dade County, who will continually put down anything that is posted from individuals that are not "accreditted". Do not read me wrong here, all views are welcomed, that's what makes the forum what is it is. But if spears are thrown, they should be able to be thrown from both sides without any repercussions. TheShrimper.

[Downdraft]

We are getting considerably off topic. It was my understanding,and still is, that this board was set up for everyone who loved tropical weather. Year after year we have the NHC bashers and second guessers, the secretly I hope it comes here crowd, the annual Texas vs. Florida landfall contest and, correct me if I'm wrong "The Great One's" annual attempt to sneak in here and bust everyone's chops. Pro met, enthusiast or just someone looking for information the old Roman rule applies, "let the buyer beware." I believe I've seen and tasted my share of crow in here along with respected pro's and regular posters alike. Isn't that why we follow the weather to learn from it? Every missed forecast is a learning experience for all involved.
Now back to the subject of the thread whether 99L develops or not here comes Hurricane Season 2007 in earnest.

[punkyg]

Who are the experts? Exclusively the ones that have "Pro Met" added under thier posting name? If you take that as gospel, you are quite mistaken. While they are compensated for thier knowledge dealing in the field of meteorology, that does not guarrantee that thier credentials should be carried over to areas they do NOT specialize in. Hey, I could be a respected, acclaimed and well compensated pediatrician, thats great but I don't think anyone wants me to be wielding the knife when a by-pass is in order. Nor do I want some "pro met" from Cutbank Montana, telling me that what he knows about tropical entities is undebatable. Over the past couple of years, they have proffessed "there is no chance at that happening", or "take this to the bank, this is what will transpire". If you posted over the past couple of tropical seasons you will remember the false claims that materialized, the claims that when debated after the fact sent some ( I won't mention names) into exile untill the clouds of humiliation dissapated. And that goes also for some from Miami-Dade County, who will continually put down anything that is posted from individuals that are not "accreditted". Do not read me wrong here, all views are welcomed, that's what makes the forum what is it is. But if spears are thrown, they should be able to be thrown from both sides without any repercussions. TheShrimper.

*Borat voice* very nice.

[Normandy]

Who are the experts? Exclusively the ones that have "Pro Met" added under thier posting name? If you take that as gospel, you are quite mistaken. While they are compensated for thier knowledge dealing in the field of meteorology, that does not guarrantee that thier credentials should be carried over to areas they do NOT specialize in. Hey, I could be a respected, acclaimed and well compensated pediatrician, thats great but I don't think anyone wants me to be wielding the knife when a by-pass is in order. Nor do I want some "pro met" from Cutbank Montana, telling me that what he knows about tropical entities is undebatable. Over the past couple of years, they have proffessed "there is no chance at that happening", or "take this to the bank, this is what will transpire". If you posted over the past couple of tropical seasons you will remember the false claims that materialized, the claims that when debated after the fact sent some ( I won't mention names) into exile untill the clouds of humiliation dissapated. And that goes also for some from Miami-Dade County, who will continually put down anything that is posted from individuals that are not "accreditted". Do not read me wrong here, all views are welcomed, that's what makes the forum what is it is. But if spears are thrown, they should be able to be thrown from both sides without any repercussions. TheShrimper.

Good post.
But.....using your analogy...if you were an expert in the field of law, medicine, public services, etc etc....would u want people trusting your forecasting of the weather? Respect the professionals, they know far more about things than most people here.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Well convection is starting to build on the northeast side. oh i don't know!
hey guys what time yesterday did our invest start firing convection?

[Normandy]

Much lather than today....by this time today it was still convectionless.

[philnyc]

Right now if you look at an IR loop, you can see an extensive area of clouds (dense cirrostratus) streaming northward. This is a relatively low CS deck with IR temps in the -10C - -15C range so its not blow-off. What that tells me is the environment around the wave right now is pretty stable. It has some moisture around...it's not that dry around the axis...but with a dense CS deck around...don't look for a convective explosion anytime soon. There may be a deep convective re-fire out ahead of the axis a little later...during the diurnal max and that might alter the stability some...but take a look at the IR loop and all the cirrostratus. Just a sign to me that 99L has at least another pulse or two before anything can take off. The stability isn't right and in order for the convection to be maintained and a closed LLC to be produced...that has to be changed.

Everything else looks good...winds..etc. The stability.That's iffy.

... from Air Force Met earlier

Thanks for that analysis Air Force Met. That seems like a fair assessment.

[storms in NC]

Right now if you look at an IR loop, you can see an extensive area of clouds (dense cirrostratus) streaming northward. This is a relatively low CS deck with IR temps in the -10C - -15C range so its not blow-off. What that tells me is the environment around the wave right now is pretty stable. It has some moisture around...it's not that dry around the axis...but with a dense CS deck around...don't look for a convective explosion anytime soon. There may be a deep convective re-fire out ahead of the axis a little later...during the diurnal max and that might alter the stability some...but take a look at the IR loop and all the cirrostratus. Just a sign to me that 99L has at least another pulse or two before anything can take off. The stability isn't right and in order for the convection to be maintained and a closed LLC to be produced...that has to be changed.

Everything else looks good...winds..etc. The stability.That's iffy.

... from Air Force Met earlier

Thanks for that analysis Air Force Met. That seems like a fair assessment.

I think that Air Force Met does a really good job on here. I would go by what he would say before any others JMO

You know if you think about it the TV news meds go by what they are told by NHC. They do here any ways. It is funny most of the time I would know more then they would.LOL I know nothing much.

Deb

[JTD]

Really, I think that what it boils down to is this: People want to see cyclogenesis to spice up the otherwise relatively boring season that we have had thus far and were spoiled by 2005. Thus, when the experts tell them that the system they are following is not likely to develop in the way they want it to, their instinct is to argue and doubt the expert opinion because they don't want to accept the fact that the particular system being followed isn't one that is going to amount to much and they won't be able to indulge their interest.

Now, I haven't the faintest clue what 99L will do or not do. I'm not a met but I do understand psychology at least somewhat and that's why I posted. This happens time after time after time.

[HURAKAN]

Now, I haven't the faintest clue what 99L will do or not do. I'm not a met but I do understand psychology at least somewhat and that's why I posted. This happens time after time after time.

Even the forecasters in the NHC won't say, "it will develop" or "it won't develop." They just react to what they see. The environment is not entirely unfavorable and therefore they are not discounting any kind of development.

[Javlin]

You know I go and look at all the models nobody seems to really care for the system except the CMC it goes bananas with it.So I started looking at the rainfall rates(never knew it was there actually)interesting they all show decent amount of rain and more to the N.My question while maybe ignorant how do we have rain when it's so dry?Oh yea and all the models at least look to the GOM at least as a rain maker from somewhere like a little W of NO to the Big Bend area,could be a little interesting.Anyone got an answer? still way down low on the learning curve here

rainfall

[clfenwi]

AXNT20 KNHC 312356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

...

A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N51W IS ABOUT 485 NM E OF THE S WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH ANY DEEP
CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 47W-55W AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

[Weatherfreak14]

Well my two cents on this is, that this very well still may develop but the dry air will probably hurt the devlopment or "slow" it down, if not kill it, it still has a chance but by the way it looks now, it doesent have much, but things change very fast.

[rjgator]

Who are the experts? Exclusively the ones that have "Pro Met" added under thier posting name? If you take that as gospel, you are quite mistaken. While they are compensated for thier knowledge dealing in the field of meteorology, that does not guarrantee that thier credentials should be carried over to areas they do NOT specialize in. Hey, I could be a respected, acclaimed and well compensated pediatrician, thats great but I don't think anyone wants me to be wielding the knife when a by-pass is in order. Nor do I want some "pro met" from Cutbank Montana, telling me that what he knows about tropical entities is undebatable. Over the past couple of years, they have proffessed "there is no chance at that happening", or "take this to the bank, this is what will transpire". If you posted over the past couple of tropical seasons you will remember the false claims that materialized, the claims that when debated after the fact sent some ( I won't mention names) into exile untill the clouds of humiliation dissapated. And that goes also for some from Miami-Dade County, who will continually put down anything that is posted from individuals that are not "accreditted". Do not read me wrong here, all views are welcomed, that's what makes the forum what is it is. But if spears are thrown, they should be able to be thrown from both sides without any repercussions. TheShrimper.

I am with you that no ones predictions should be taken as GOSPEL since the weather in general is so unpredictable by nature. This is shown by the general level of uncertainty and error in the most sophisticated computer models in the world as well as the best trained and qualified professionals at NOAA and the NHC. However, I have read almost every post on this board for four years and I think that some of the information that the Pro Mets have provided on this board has been excellent and has helped many of us gain a great deal of knowledge in the field of the tropical weather regardless of what their ultimate predictions may have been. Most of the time they are not claiming to be experts but do show a great deal of knowledge about tropical weather and seem to correct each other if they disagree. I would hate to discourage them from posting any and all of their input. They also are the first to answer anyone’s questions about general tropical issues and seem to have extensive knowledge of the tropics and have always helped me if I had a question about how something worked having to do with the general aspects of tropical weather and the science behind it. I would hate for any of them to feel they have to go into hiding because they made a wrong prediction. Lets face it if this happened to all of the “Pro Mets” in the media we would not have any weather man due to the amount of times they eat crow on whether or not it is going to rain or snow today.

As far as formation, path, and strength predictions most of the time I notice that their posts are typically substantiated by something other than IR Floater 1. I would like to thank them all for all of their input they have out into this board over the years and encourage them to post everything they can just as anyone else.

I hate to go off topic but I just wanted to voice my appreciation.

AGAIN THIS IS ONLY MY OPINION AND I STILL AGREE WITH YOU THAT NO ONES POSTS OR PREDICTIONS SHOULD BE DISCOURAGED OR IGNORED.