99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[Weatherfreak000]

Chances of BOC development are perhaps less then 1%


It's moving too fast, and there is no circulation. The main blob of convection that is going to move into the BOC is pretty much caused mostly by afternoon heating, and not 99L.

Looking for a substantial decrease in convection by nightfall.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a chance that the Low to mid level circ will make it into the BOC and develop a surface circ.
there is some pretty convincing evidence that there is a surface circ already that formed just before in came ashore in Belize yesterday, but im not going to confirm it because the reporting stations in the area although show a low, the problem is there are mountains that may be giving false information. But the low to mid level Cric has persisted all day and i have tracked it, and it should be exiting the coast later tonight. The questions is will it have enough time to close off a surface low. we have had similar situations in the past, bret, gert are a couple of similar situations where there really was not enough time but yet they still were able to.
just watch to see over the next few hours in that general area to see if we get some sort of organized convection

Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

Campeche E wind 1012mb
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html

further SW of campeche in cuidad del carmen NNE wind 1011 mb
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html


so there are some land reports that show a low in the vicinity of the where i have circled it in the previous post

[Stratosphere747]

Might just surprise a few folks. Doubt it would have to much time, but something might just spin up later this evening and into Monday before going inland.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

THE FIRST STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OF THE SEASON IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA ALONG 91W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS APPARENT BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. THESE BANDING FEATURES CONSIST
OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE
STRONGEST ONES ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NICARAGUA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ABOVE THIS WAVE ENHANCING
THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE IS ALREADY
SPREADING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. MERIDA
REPORTED HEAVY RAIN AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT JUST BEHIND THE
WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TOMORROW AND WILL EXIT THE SW GULF MON NIGHT.

[Aric Dunn]

Might just surprise a few folks. Doubt it would have to much time, but something might just spin up later this evening and into Monday before going inland.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

THE FIRST STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OF THE SEASON IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA ALONG 91W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS APPARENT BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. THESE BANDING FEATURES CONSIST
OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE
STRONGEST ONES ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NICARAGUA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ABOVE THIS WAVE ENHANCING
THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE IS ALREADY
SPREADING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. MERIDA
REPORTED HEAVY RAIN AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT JUST BEHIND THE
WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TOMORROW AND WILL EXIT THE SW GULF MON NIGHT.

you should have highlighted this !

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS APPARENT BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE

[Stratosphere747]

Well the obs out of Merida impressed me the most. The banding was like the icing on the cake....

[Rainband]

I think people are going to have a heart attack if we don't get a storm soon.

[mgpetre]

Actually 99L was one of the most fun "storms" I've ever tracked. It has been exciting guessing as to whether it would ever cross the borderline it keeps setting itself up on. There's something about a storm that has 20% or less chances of developing and listening to people write it off and yet here we are almost 9 days later and it's still giving itself some miniscule chance of becoming something. This thing is like the little engine that couldn't. I love the beauty of a hurricane with it's massive yet calm eye, but there is something just as beautiful about this storm. And with the way it's spreading right now we could have 99L related storms in Houston at the same time they have 99L storms in Nica or Costa Rica, not many storms can lay claim to that kind of real estate. Fascinating storm that I keep thinking will just disappear, but here we are still making comment on it. Does this thing still show up on models? I'd like to see what the spaghetti looks like about now.

[Aric Dunn]

I think people are going to have a heart attack if we don't get a storm soon.

Im not I like doing this because there is more to look at and forecasting involved..

because when you have a hurricane or something that is out over open water there is nothing much to do or think about you just watch and wait! there is only a little bit of change throughout a day, unlike with developing systems where things can change fast. so i find it more fun to track and watch blobs.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Approaching the bay of campeche, the next 12-24 hours
will be critical and could be very interesting...

[HURAKAN]

99L looks like a large system in this latest image!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The brunt of 99L is entering the BOC from the yucatan and
I think with the oceanic heat content it will just explode tonight and
tomorrow...I expect at least a tropical depression.

[Aric Dunn]

99L looks like a large system in this latest image!!

notice the wind barbs .. hints at a circulation where I posted about before

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some sort of circulation at the mid levels has
established itself...and that is already a spark
to the fire of 99L.
Tonight will be very interesting no doubt.

[Weatherfreak000]

I most certainly agree. We're really treading into unhealthy desire for "Dean" now.


This isn't 99L either btw people, 99L doesn't exist anymore, this is just a strong tropical wave.

In fact, i'd be inclined to make a completely new topic and let this 99L fascination die. If another invest were to form (I sincerely doubt even IF anything could occur, it had that sort of time) the system would I assume be labeled 90L.

Wind Shear maps also imply oppressive shear occuring now in the BOC, despite the anticyclone that has developed. The convection will not stay over the anticyclone long and get shredded to pieces, and that's just assuming anything even survives.

So yeah, let's give this "Strong Tropical Wave" a 1% chance, and boot good old 99L out.

[Aric Dunn]

I most certainly agree. We're really treading into unhealthy desire for "Dean" now.


This isn't 99L either btw people, 99L doesn't exist anymore, this is just a strong tropical wave.

In fact, i'd be inclined to make a completely new topic and let this 99L fascination die. If another invest were to form (I sincerely doubt even IF anything could occur, it had that sort of time) the system would I assume be labeled 90L.

Wind Shear maps also imply oppressive shear occuring now in the BOC, despite the anticyclone that has developed. The convection will not stay over the anticyclone long and get shredded to pieces, and that's just assuming anything even survives.

So yeah, let's give this "Strong Tropical Wave" a 1% chance, and boot good old 99L out.

its still 99l.

[Weatherfreak000]

Also, note "Shockingly" on the latest Sat pic, convection is already dieing off, afternoon heating is over.


This thing has been dead for 24 hours now.

[Aric Dunn]

Also, note "Shockingly" on the latest Sat pic, convection is already dieing off, afternoon heating is over.


This thing has been dead for 24 hours now.

hmmm... although convection like always collapses! it also builds again and notice off shore in the BOC more convection is firing! minimal now but should build more and then die off and then build more then die off ....... so on and so forth ...
so i guess we can add that to your "assumptions" list from the previous post

[wxman57]

Lowest pressures are over the isthmus of Mexico, not the BoC. Just a wave axis moving rapidly through the BoC the next 24 hours. Main energy is over land, no time for development. As someone said, development chances less than 1%. Better look over western Africa for something interesting.

[Weatherfreak000]

Also, note "Shockingly" on the latest Sat pic, convection is already dieing off, afternoon heating is over.


This thing has been dead for 24 hours now.

hmmm... although convection like always collapses! it also builds again and notice off shore in the BOC more convection is firing! minimal now but should build more and then die off and then build more then die off ....... so on and so forth ...
so i guess we can add that to your "assumptions" list from the previous post

Well of course, convection is definitely going to "die off and then build back again", regardless of what happens. That sort of activity occurs daily in this area.

The point is simply the convection is dieing, there is no surface circulation, it's moving quickly, there is ample shear in the BOC and pressures are far too high.