2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2902
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Can we not.
2 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
It starts developing as early as 3-4 days out, but it’s in a spot notorious for phantoms. I’d wait another day or so to see if it sticks around or vanishes like the last SC Caribbean AOI.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z GFS again shows development. Not sure if it’s believable.
0 likes
- Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2902
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:
It starts developing as early as 3-4 days out, but it’s in a spot notorious for phantoms. I’d wait another day or so to see if it sticks around or vanishes like the last SC Caribbean AOI.
18z GFS ensembles.
0 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:aspen wrote:
It starts developing as early as 3-4 days out, but it’s in a spot notorious for phantoms. I’d wait another day or so to see if it sticks around or vanishes like the last SC Caribbean AOI.
18z GFS ensembles.
https://i.imgur.com/44VrKhk.png
Strong enough signal I'd at least put a 10% on that area.
2 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
tomatkins wrote:chaser1 wrote:kevin wrote:Quite a bit of CA activity in the 100 - 160 hour range, especially for an ensemble this late in the season. Looks like the disturbance that some of the models showed around Panama a few days ago has kept moving closer regarding the time frame and has shifted a bit further north. A few members strengthen to 970s/980s mbar before landfall, even though I think most members are at TD/TD level. Might become an AOI on the NHC page if it stays in the ensembles for another 1 - 2 days.
https://imgur.com/L2TnQZc
And with the ensembles, now come the 12Z GFS becoming quite bullish on one more hurricane to add to this crazy season! This begins with a 1003mb low just north of Panama in 108 hours, and climaxing to a 984mb hurricane drifting westward and making landfall in S. Nicaragua at 168 hours. Wow, seems like Nicaragua is becoming the Louisiana of Central America
Edit: No other meaningful model support to back the GFS with exception to the GFS-Para which comes in weaker/slower. Will have to watch and see if model support gains or if the GFS ultimately drops this feature.
The GFS seems to like to spin up the vorticity coming off of the Maracaibo region into real storms.
A December hurricane from tropical origins...only in 2020.
1 likes
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Very strong 00z GFS ensemble signal for something to form in the SWCar around 90 - 100 hours with land impacts around 140 - 160 hours in Nicaragua/Costa Rica. I expect NHC to designate it an AOI either today or tomorrow if it stays in the GFS ensembles. 06z ICON also shows a 1009 mbar low at 120 hours, but the other models don't seem to be on board yet.
Last edited by kevin on Sat Nov 28, 2020 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I personally think that NHC will take a passive "sit-back-and-see" attitude toward potential development in the SW Caribbean for at least a couple days due to lack of convection and limited model consistency. GFS model run after run has come in weaker and the 12Z run seems to push back the goal-posts at tad. Ironically, the GFS-Para is now more bullish on development but is pushed back significantly with a 1002mb low occurring in about 132 hr's. and peaking at 992mb in about 168 hr's. While ensemble members are admittedly increasingly signaling development, there's still no significant model support elsewhere. Only thing i'd add is that the CMC does hint at some increased 850mb cyclonic turning but is broad and a bit more south. I'd give the edge to the GFS for sniffing something out and I think a moderate TS is not unreasonable at the 126/156 hr range given it's past performance late this season. A sliver of the warmest SST's in the basin (29C) still exist just north of Panama so there's one factor in support of potential genesis given the far south latitude that development would potentially occur. On the other hand, Father-Time will probably get the upper-hand if we see the GFS push back genesis much beyond 180 hr's.
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- CourierPR
- Category 5
- Posts: 1325
- Age: 70
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
- Location: Pompano Beach, Florida
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
What is that I see forming in the SW Caribbean today?
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
CourierPR wrote:What is that I see forming in the SW Caribbean today?
It needs to be highlighted IMO.
1 likes
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
CrazyC83 wrote:CourierPR wrote:What is that I see forming in the SW Caribbean today?
It needs to be highlighted IMO.
Looks like these three AOIs will be it for the season.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
tomatkins wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:CourierPR wrote:What is that I see forming in the SW Caribbean today?
It needs to be highlighted IMO.
Looks like these three AOIs will be it for the season.
Most likely yes.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
3 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4623
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1334135269763772417
Ohh that will be nice for severe weather season here in Oklahoma
3 likes
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I'm seeing something semi-interesting on the long range Euro next week...a low north of the Caribbean that may try to develop in the 144-192 range before it merges with what should be a very intense ET low.
1 likes
- johngaltfla
- Category 5
- Posts: 1939
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Sarasota County, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm seeing something semi-interesting on the long range Euro next week...a low north of the Caribbean that may try to develop in the 144-192 range before it merges with what should be a very intense ET low.
Hard pass.
Please.
Uncle.
0 likes
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 4833
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Thank god it's all but over.....What a year 2020 has been!
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I'm seeing something interesting pop up on the GFS and ECMWF late this week between the Canaries and Cabo Verde lasting from December 24-26. While I don't see it having enough time to become (sub)tropical, it might be a fitting end to 2020.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: cajungal, ElectricStorm, Emmett_Brown, Google Adsense [Bot], LarryWx, ouragans and 88 guests