Area in SW Caribbean (NOW INVEST 95L IN ACTIVE STORMS FORUM)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A
1011 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED AND COVERS
MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BROAD
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
20N BETWEEN 75W-84W.

[NDG]

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

[O Town]

Interesting it says cyclone formation instead of "possible" formation.

[cycloneye]

I suppose they havent put invest up for this as its going inland soon,otherwise,it would have been invest rapidly.

[Sanibel]

This wave lingered over the more favorable west Caribbean and is starting to try to curl up. The Caribbean isn't quite there yet with 94L and this one. The tropical flow should push this over Central America before it gets a chance to get serious.

Maybe it will clear the way for 94L and allow that stronger feature to develop.

[HURAKAN]

RECON may have to be diverted to this area.

[BigA]

Give it another 12-24 hours and this would be a depression or storm. It looks really good and organizing quickly. It just ran out of room.

[NDG]

12 hrs-24hrs and it will be inland

[Squarethecircle]

If it weren't for the fact that the storms movement seems intent to crush its development, this would be worth checking (obviously this does not apply to the people in the path of the storm, who should keep a tab or two open to prevent being caught in a flood or the like).

[cheezyWXguy]

Like NHC said conditions look very favorable for development. The only thing really going against it, is time. From what I seen on this map, it's been lacking enough low-level convergence, to organize quicker:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Agree.

Also has better structure than 94 ever has...running out of time and water though

No it doesnt..are you kidding? Unlike 94L this doesnt have a llc. There is one very apparent on the visible loop. This one has...some showers, a light spin...but its not that much. Personally, I give neither much of a chance to develop.

[HURAKAN]

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU JUL 17 2008


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...SW CARIB WAVE

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
17/1215 UTC 13.4N 81.8W 270/10 8.2 IN 7.7 IN


LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 2.1 TO 7.1 IN 5.5 TO 7.7 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.3 TO 2.2 IN 0.3 TO 6.6 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.0 TO 1.5 IN 0.0 TO 0.3 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 2.4 IN 0.0 TO 0.1 IN


...LEGEND...

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)

DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT

LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE

MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
IN DEGREES AND KNOTS

MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART

LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE

RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
(1 IN = 25.4 MM)

[cycloneye]

This is invest 95L so thread is locked.