GOM, homebrew?

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME BUT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA/BERG


Not sure if this is what the thread was talking about, but I didn't want to start a new topic.

[caneman]

This area sure has been festering for awhile. Not much if any model support but does bear watching this time of year.

[KatDaddy]

Joe B has been talking about the S GOM for a few days. He is good at long range patterns but not 5 days out. He has taken a beating this season I agree the overall pattern could support tropical development in the GOM but hopefully not. I will let the pro-Mets chime in on the GOM.

[HURAKAN]

42055 - MARITIME-buoy
Friday Sep. 26 - 10:50 UTC
Air Temperature: 82°F
Dewpoint: 70°F
Wind: NNE at 29 mph
gusting to 34
Pressure: 1010.8 mb
Wave Height: 8 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.4°F



Could we have a small area of low pressure that is intensifying?

[HURAKAN]

Coatzacoalcos, VZ, MX as of 2008-09-26 12:00 UTC:

Humidity: 78%
Wind: SW 12 mph
Pressure: 29.80 in.
Dewpoint: 68°F / 20°C

[HURAKAN]

[gboudx]

Joe B has been talking about the S GOM for a few days. He is good at long range patterns but not 5 days out. He has taken a beating this season I agree the overall pattern could support tropical development in the GOM but hopefully not. I will let the pro-Mets chime in on the GOM.

Here's what Jeff Lidner said in his email update this morning about that area. No link.

Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather has developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche along the tail end of an old surface trough which extends from S FL to Mexico. While currently disorganized the system does have some potential for slow development if it can remain over the open waters of the Bay of Campeche. A few of the forecast models suggest lowering pressures in this region over the next several days and attempt to close off a surface low over the Yucatan. Given the upper pattern developing over the US…any development would be held in the southern Gulf for the next several days and then may be allowed to move northward of NNE toward the US Gulf coast late next week as large scale ridging in control of much of the US breaks down.

[Sanibel]

Dry area to north should impede development.

[wxman57]

Here's a surface analysis as requested by HURAKAN. It's common for winds to accelerate down the coast of Mexico and into the BoC, forming an eddy at the trailing end of cold fronts. That's what we have now. It's something to keep an eye on, but winds aloft are quite hostile outside the southern BoC - 50 kts out of the west from Mexico to the northern Yucatan. Westerly winds aloft actually increase across the central BoC over the next 24 hours, so quite a bit of shear down there.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just looking at the shallower 2 CIMMS mean wind analyses, anything there should be drifting Southward now. Back into Mexico, possibly.


12Z WRF seems to imply that 500 mb steering will allow anything down there to start moving more Northeastward in a couple of days, and seems to actually show a feature coming up toward Florida, maybe bent back more Northerly by what might be a bit of the big East Coast trough breaking off and getting into the Northwest Gulf.


I will say, other than that one little fluke about two weeks ago, Texas has been in a Fall like pattern of Westerlies for almost a month, and now we have a nice continental surface airmass to go along with that.

Probably never develops, but if it does, I smell Florida.

[Tampa_God]

If anything does form, it will be dragged North eastward. The huge no name low will steer this thing either into the West Coast of Florida or towards the Panhandle/AL border.

[tina25]

From Jeff Masters latest blog..

Gulf of Mexico disturbance may threaten western Florida next week
An area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf of Mexico, just west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, has changed little today. Visible satellite images show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms moving east-southeast, towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the region, which is marginal for development. The system should move ashore over the Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday before development into a tropical depression can occur. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Early next week, we will have to watch the waters on either side of the Yucatan for possible development of this system. Some of the models are predicting that a tropical depression could form off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula early next week, then move northeastwards to a landfall in western Florida as early as Wednesday.

[Sanibel]

Slight spin. Limited area of development under unfavorable northern GOM.

Could spin and head in our direction.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Heavy Convection forming in the SE Gulf/NW Caribbean; This area is climatologically favored
for significant late season storms; The stationary
front that is fueling it will lift north
over central Florida by Monday, allowing a steering
flow to push whatever this becomes into South Florida
by Wednesday-Thursday.

[boca]

Hey Tampa bay it looks like you saw the 00z GFS run it has a low moving NE towards the west coast of Florida by Wed timeframe.Good call.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[JonathanBelles]

TITAN showed a low forming by monday-Tuesday and moving NE over FL.

[boca]

TITAN showed a low forming by monday-Tuesday and moving NE over FL.

Do you have a link?

[JonathanBelles]

TITAN showed a low forming by monday-Tuesday and moving NE over FL.

Do you have a link?

Local ABC news model. Time sensitive link: http://www.abcactionnews.com/weather/default.aspx <---Watch the video on the right.

[boca]

Thanks fact, our ABC affiliate channel 25 uses the titan too.