Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 96L)

[tolakram]

Look at the extreme shear.



Without all the shear it seems like this would be a good bet to develop.

[Sanibel]

That's cool. A little swirl-up right off Bocas Del Toro, Panama (which I've visited).

I think EPAC has it. No doubt about persistence.

[Blown Away]

I know it's late November, but IMO this area should be a "Code Yellow" at this point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[boca]

I'm surprised that this thread isn't busier than it is.Their is a mid level circulation down there. As far as at the surface I don't think its their quite yet, but spin is definitely there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

I know it's late November, but IMO this area should be a "Code Yellow" at this point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

It has about zero chance of developing in a high-shear environment. This season is over.

[cycloneye]

NHC is paying attention!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222351
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE PANAMA-COSTA
RICA BORDER IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2351.shtml

[wxman57]

They mention it because it will bring rain to Central America, not because it will develop.

[fci]

This is like an episode of ER.

The patient (The 2008 Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season) has been coding for 30 minutes, paddles used several times; yet one intern refuses to "call it".

No pulse......... charge to 300................ CLEAR.......... BOOM (and then thump)

(use your imagination!)

[TheEuropean]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230611
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE PANAMA-COSTA
RICA BORDER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0611.shtml

[tolakram]

Orange is my favorite color.



Even more shear than the last time I posted the graphic.

[gatorcane]

Impressive convection for late November. A stronger-than-normal front pushing down into the SW Carib has again created a focal point for convection (its the same front that is bringing the prolonged period of below normal temps across Florida since the beginning of last week)

[HURAKAN]

Odette:
"As the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season came to a nominal close on 30 November, a stationary front extended across eastern Cuba southwestward into the southwestern Caribbean Sea. An area of low pressure developed in the frontal zone on 1 December just north of Panama, where it remained nearly stationary for a couple of days while the front gradually retreated northward and separated from the surface low. During this time, convection increased and became organized, and by 3 December, a distinct mid-level circulation had developed about 120 n mi north of the surface center. A weak tropical wave moved into the area and this event coincided with an increase in the overall organization of the system early on 4 December. A tropical depression formed at 1200 UTC that day about 300 n mi south of Kingston, Jamaica."

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003odette.shtml?

[HURAKAN]

Imposing shear should limit any development for the moment.

[cycloneye]

Not bad looking for late november,even in that area,but shear is horrible and land are the negative factors for it to not try to bloosom.

[Sanibel]

Exactly Gatorcane, as unscientific as it sounds the front pushes the tropical conditions down into one corner and concentrates them there. They then brew up and form.

The shear is high, I'm surprised it even formed at all. This could spring north, who knows?


I bet they are flooding there in Panama/Costa Rica with three days of rain so far.

[cycloneye]

I didnt expected this to be a invest,but they have it up.Thread is locked as the information about this system can be found in the 96L Thread at Active Storms Forum.