Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[ROCK]

EURO is pretty good track wise once something developes. It nailed IKE way before any other models latched on. However I am not as confident in the EURO when it comes to development. I will need more model support as Derek suggests before I am onboard. it hasnt even came off Africa yet....

By the way- this is our first model run of the season that Miami and the EC get destroyed. Next up NO, Tampa then Galveston......

oh the days of the CMC...we shall miss you...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I looped the GFS 850 mb vorticity wind out past the resolution lobotomy. Nothing in the Gulf, nada, zed, zero. Squat.

A little after the lobotomy, but less than 10 days to interesting weather near Puerto Rico...





The less model time elapses after the resolution lobotomy, the less the model goes off to la-la land, by my figuring.


So things could get interesting in the USVI and Sint Maarten.

[Stormcenter]

Exactly

Come on guys this thing is 2 weeks away. I don't even think that there should be models for 300 hours available to the public. It just makes people worry about possibly nothing.

[ROCK]

Oh I agree Ed, as no long range model supports anything in the GOM region. BUT its long range and this is still over Africa.


Lets not forget last years "the GOM westerlies model support".....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Oh I agree Ed, as no long range model supports anything in the GOM region. BUT its long range and this is still over Africa.


Lets not forget last years "the GOM westerlies model support".....

Early August is too early to say the prevailing Westerlies have returned to Texas. About above Hour 216 image, it is after the lobotomy, but you could see the wave still over Africa clearly predicted to develop by the model and move generally to the West. That is not some phantom generated after a week from now when the model is running at half resolution.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Now, the model depiction of almost an exact match of Joe Bastardi's perfect storm, heading up Delaware Bay and maybe flooding PHL, that is far enough beyond the lobotomy I would not put a lot of credit into it.

[Derek Ortt]

finally a model not named GFS shows significant development, though its motion is a little slower than I would expect

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a busy next two weeks at least for the NHC if the models are correct. We are moving into the meat of the season so strap on the helmets guys!

[hurricanetrack]

If people are worried about seeing 300 hour model plots then they should learn more about those models. What is there to worry about anyway? It is just a computer graphic.

[Ivanhater]

You can add the GFDL to the other models developing "90L"...its the outer grid so it will not show up strong

[Derek Ortt]

That's another system Luis. NOGAPS does not really have the wave at all in the 850mb vorticity.

NOGAPS is showing something that moves off in about 3 days

[Ivanhater]

There needs to be one thread on this system, it's confusing...anyways Euro develops this wave as well

[cycloneye]

Yes,there is a models only thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&p=1900101#p1900101

[Ivanhater]

This thing is a monster

Starts to form in about 2 to 3 days

[Ivanhater]

174 hours...insane

[Gustywind]

This thing is a monster

Starts to form in about 2 to 3 days

Go fishing go...

[cycloneye]

If GFS,CMC,ECMWF are right,the wave that will be the trigger is still inside Africa,but getting closer to the splash with the water.

This image updates every 15 minutes.Click the symbol for a closeup view.

[Derek Ortt]

and it misses all land until Newfoundland

however, this is fantasyland just as the trillion dollar storm is

[Ivanhater]

and it misses all land until Newfoundland

however, this is fantasyland just as the trillion dollar storm is

Yeah, every year the GFS swings from Mexico to out to sea in the long range. If this forms in a couple of days, it will still be a few days before it locks onto a region.

[KWT]

To be fair though the ECM does show a rather similar type of set-up at 240hrs as well. However the models may be too progressive in trying to revert the pattern back again...

Its also a pattern thats a big threat to the NE Caribbean if the system develops far enough south.