Wave behind Henri

#41 Postby **abajan** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:11 pm

punkyg wrote:
leanne_uk wrote:I am pretty suprised with that, guess we will have to wait and see what happens at the next update. I however have to get some sleep so I look forward to peeing where this is at in the morning

do you mean to say "seeing" LOL!...

No, I’m pretty sure he means he’s looking forward to go to the bathroom first thing in the morning, then checking the TWO :roflmao:

Gustywind · #42 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:22 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

$$
FORMOSA

Emmett_Brown · #43 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:39 pm

Going by the IR, I dont agree with the NHC assessment that this is "unorganized". Organization appears to be increasing, and some banding is evident. I could be wrong and the whole thing might just poof in the next few hours, but that's how it looks to me right now anyway.

#44 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:55 pm

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Is the NHC seeing the same loop I'm seeing? Disorganized? LOL

#45 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:57 pm

abajan wrote:
punkyg wrote:
leanne_uk wrote:I am pretty suprised with that, guess we will have to wait and see what happens at the next update. I however have to get some sleep so I look forward to peeing where this is at in the morning

do you mean to say "seeing" LOL!...
No, I’m pretty sure he means he’s looking forward to go to the bathroom first thing in the morning, then checking the TWO

That's little mistake made me laugh. Pretty funny and unintentional, of course!

#46 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 8:00 pm

leanne_uk wrote:I am pretty suprised with that, guess we will have to wait and see what happens at the next update. I however have to get some sleep so I look forward to peeing where this is at in the morning

LOL!!! Too funny!!!

#47 Postby **AnnularCane** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 8:13 pm

leanne_uk wrote:I am pretty suprised with that, guess we will have to wait and see what happens at the next update. I however have to get some sleep so I look forward to peeing where this is at in the morning

Don't pee where it is! You might piss it off! :grrr:

Seriously, this thing looks beautiful. I'm kind of surprised by the lack of enthusiasm from the NHC. Maybe it's less organized than it looks?

#48 Postby **abajan** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 8:21 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
leanne_uk wrote:I am pretty suprised with that, guess we will have to wait and see what happens at the next update. I however have to get some sleep so I look forward to peeing where this is at in the morning

Don't pee where it is! You might piss it off! ...

Good one! Encore... encore :notworthy:

But in all seriousness, I thought there would be more convection by now. Of course, it may still flare up sometime in the overnight hours.

Gustywind · #49 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 8:37 pm

Macrocane · #50 Postby **Macrocane** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 8:48 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think it will start to gain some latitude as Henri (or its remnants) moves away, wind shear in the Caribbean will start to relax in about 72 hours, if it keeps it organization trend and it finds favorable conditions then we will have a player, models are not enthusiastic with this system and that makes me think that it has only a low chance, but we've seen a couple of surprises this season let's wait and see.

leanne_uk · #51 Postby **leanne_uk** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 8:56 pm

leanne_uk wrote:I am pretty suprised with that, guess we will have to wait and see what happens at the next update. I however have to get some sleep so I look forward to peeing where this is at in the morning

Never gonna live that down now, oh dear. Predictive text on my mobile has alot to answer for.
Well in all fairness it was my lack of attention to what had been written in my post.

Sorry guys but at least I gave the board a giggle

#52 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 9:46 pm

Macrocane wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think it will start to gain some latitude as Henri (or its remnants) moves away, wind shear in the Caribbean will start to relax in about 72 hours, if it keeps it organization trend and it finds favorable conditions then we will have a player, models are not enthusiastic with this system and that makes me think that it has only a low chance, but we've seen a couple of surprises this season let's wait and see.

it certainly has a nice spin to it using nightime shortwave IR. Certainly looks to be gradually improving in organization. Maybe it will be a code orange by this time tomorrow. But I agree, with the lack of model support one has to think its doomed in the long-run.

#53 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 10:56 pm

Latest

Gustywind · #54 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 5:27 am

Latest 6 AM:

#55 Postby **O Town** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 5:28 am

Definitely see some spinning going on with this wave, but convection seems to be waning. Lets see what happens when it gets in the Caribbean.

Gustywind · #56 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 5:32 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Gustywind · #57 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 5:37 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

....TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
50W-56W.
$$
WALTON

Gustywind · #58 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 5:49 am

Henri downgraded to a tropical depression
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 8, 2009 6:22 am ET
In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Henri continues to weaken.

As of early Thursday morning, Henri was located 165 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum winds near 35 mph, mainly northeast of the center.

Henri will continue to encounter upper-level winds that are strong out of the southwest. This will likely result in it weakening to a remnant low by late today while moving west-northwest, and then north.

It will not be any threat to land.

#59 Postby **abajan** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 5:56 am

O Town wrote:Definitely see some spinning going on with this wave, but convection seems to be waning...

Actually, the last few frames seem to indicate waxing convection. Looks like I could be in for some heavy weather later! :eek:

perk · #60 Postby **perk** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 6:18 am

Gustywind wrote:Henri downgraded to a tropical depression
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 8, 2009 6:22 am ET
In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Henri continues to weaken.

As of early Thursday morning, Henri was located 165 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum winds near 35 mph, mainly northeast of the center.

Henri will continue to encounter upper-level winds that are strong out of the southwest. This will likely result in it weakening to a remnant low by late today while moving west-northwest, and then north.

It will not be any threat to land.

The last set of models i saw on Henri did'nt indicate a turn north.

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