East Coast development soon? Floater named "INVEST"

[littlevince]

Can't even reach that server now. Maybe they changed the base URL?

There is a lot of different products here:

https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy/web/ops.htm
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy/we ... ts/geo.htm

[artist]

By the way, anyone have some good SST links? I used to have a link to a high-res SST chart that covered the East U.S. Coast. It was black & white, but I'm not opposed to a color version. There was a second such chart that covered the GoM. Both had the Gulf Stream and Loop Current identified with speeds indicated.

Perhaps you are looking for this:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/IASNFS_W ... S.html#gom

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/IASNFS_W ... e/gomt.gif

No, I have that site. It's good for the Gulf and Caribbean but not for the East U.S. Coast. The imagery I"m thinking of had the SSTs identified in 0.5C contours along with a trace of the Gulf Stream (with current speeds) and any warm/cold eddies defined.

This USED to be the correct link:
Northern Gulf Stream / East U.S. Coast
https://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cen/local/gulf/gulf01.gif

Gulf of Mexico:
https://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cen/local/gulf/gulf02.gif

Can't even reach that server now. Maybe they changed the base URL?

here is one more that is maybe more detailed?
http://coastwatch.noaa.gov/
Be sure to scroll all the way down.
If none of these are anywhere near what you are looking for, just tell me and I will quit posting them as I really am not sure what I am looking for. lol

[HURAKAN]

72 hours

[cycloneye]

Below is a discussion by Dr Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground about this system.

Southeast U.S. coastal storm next week could become subtropical
A region of cloudiness and showers just east of the Bahama Islands will develop into a strong extratropical storm over the weekend. This storm is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast Sunday and Monday, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 6 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Monday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil westwards towards Texas.

[OuterBanker]

Starting to show up in our forcast for Monday. Winds ese 27-40, no rain forecast so far. Accuweather Pro 14 day forecast, which seems to be based on the GFS.

JB on the other hand expects a rogue storm around 32.5 and 75 Tues am with sub 1000mb pressure stalling or heading to seus.

i.e. Cape Hatteras 35.25 75.52 for position (that would place the storm 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras)

[ronjon]

From HPC this morning:

WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEST ATLC/SOUTHERN SEABOARD MID LEVEL
TROF AND LOW THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PUSH A WELL DEFINED LOW WWD
TOWARD THE SERN COAST LATE MON INTO TUE (DAY 4-5) AND HAVE DONE SO
FOR SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW. THE CMC AND UKMET ARE WEAKER WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE MON-TUE OFF THE SERN COAST..ALTHOUGH THE CMC DOES
PUSH A LOW WWD BY MID WEEK OFF THE SERN COAST. HPC PROGS BASED ON
A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. CHI VERTICAL POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS
INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS AND
CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS OF CMC AND GFS INDICATE SHALLOW WARM CORE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ALSO SEEN BY ECMWF. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA
CAPPED BY A SFC HIGH IS SIMILAR TO EARLY FALL TYPE SYSTEMS. STRONG
HINTS OF POTENTIAL HYBRID TYPE CYCLOGENESIS OR CONVERSION.
RETROGRESSION OF THIS LOW WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST CAPPED BY THE
SFC HIGH GIVES THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG NE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WINDS AND COASTAL RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD TUES AND WED.
SEE OPC DISCUSSIONS AND WARNINGS.

[HURAKAN]

48 hours

[HURAKAN]

A large mass of clouds, showers and thunderstorms stretching from the western Caribbean Sea to the Bahama waters of the Atlantic Ocean may generate the season's first system of interest during the 2010 tropical season.

While this system is not likely to be a true tropical system, it may take a track more typical to a tropical storm or hurricane.

Look for a weak area of low pressure to form somewhere near the Bahamas this weekend.

As this happens, it may begin to wrap drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms in a semi-circular pattern in the vicinity.

During early next week, the system may become a "hybrid" storm with part tropical characteristics and part non-tropical characteristics.

High pressure building east of New England next week may then create enough easterly flow to push this struggling system westward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

While there will likely be enough dry air wrapping around into part of the storm to prevent it from being a closed, warm core system like a true tropical storm or hurricane, people in areas from the northern Florida coast to the Virginia will experience significant effects.

Along the southern Atlantic Seaboard through the first half of next week, people can expect building surf, increasing winds and rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions may worsen to the point where beach erosion and coastal flooding occurs for a time.

Rip currents may become strong and frequent for early-season bathers.

The exact track of this system, after it forms, will determine which part of the southern Atlantic coast gets the worst conditions. Details will unfold over the next couple of days.

Away from the Southeast U.S. coast next week, the same weather pattern allowing the system to form in the western Atlantic will also build a sea of warmth over the eastern two-thirds of the nation.

Link - http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... al-a-1.asp

[cycloneye]

12z CMC Loop

[HURAKAN]

Pretty good agreement

[HURAKAN]

Working down to the surface

[tolakram]

Link

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

You can move that around by changing lat= and lon= in the URL

[Aquawind]

Hmmm They have a ridge pushing it coastward even.. Figures with the heat and ridging to the north I reckon. GA in May now that has to be a record..

[HURAKAN]

FYI

[Macrocane]

I find always very interesting how the extratropical cyclones transition to subtropical or tropical, if this low become subtropical it will bea very interesting start of the season (at least for me). By the way if it develops it will be the 4th year in a row with an early start of the season after Andrea, Arthur and TD-01.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 144 hours

It has a 1004mb low pressure.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian goes warm core as it approaches the SE coast

[pepeavilenho]

100% wrong, my friend. I had a look at MUCH more, higher resolution data at work today compared to the coarse resolution images that you posted earlier. A phase diagram showing a forecast of at best a marginal, shallow warm core is unconvincing given the synoptic setup. The low north of Hispanola will form due to jet forced ascent, which will cause the pressure falls. Read the AFD out of Melbourne...I wrote it.

Today I would say

25%tropical
50%subtropical
25%extratropical

It's my opinion...

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian really wraps this one up

[ronjon]

Surface low now taking shape near 27N-72.5W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html