Blob at 30w (Is invest 90L)

[Blown Away]

Not sure what the criteria is for determining when to do the PGI-22L test, but there seeing something and I would think it would at least warrant a Code Yellow w/ a low % chance of development? Yeah it appears attached to the ITCZ but that convection has been persistent for >24 hours, has a slight rotation, and just looks good on satellite!

[FireBird]

I'm keeping a very watchful eye on this cluster. Doesn't matter to me whether it's a wave or ITCZ. If it continues this level of convection as it moves west, it's gonna be a mess down here. We are already water-logged; another wave is upon us; and this is so slow moving that it could sit and cause real BIG problems for the SE islands.

[Aric Dunn]

The NHC aren't really too keen on this region interesting because some models do try and develop this region...surely the NHC have to wake up soon, they put 10% on blobs that have 0 chance then ignore something that has had a great presentation for 48hrs...though granted it does still seem tobe in the ITCZ...

the 0% chance for 48 hours is rather strange this season.. but with the wave that eventually became bonnie they gave it a 10% chance when there was not even any convection and was a dry wave in the middle of the atlantic but they said in few days the environment could become better ... which of course it did.. there is a reason for everything and clearly they are not interested in the area atm because of various reason ... first and foremost its a feature of the ITCZ this of course does not exclude it from developing but it is very very rare for something to develop from a convective burst within the ITCZ without some surface feature i.e a tropical wave...so I would bet they wait till the wave exiting africa catches up with it so that there is some energy at the surface to warrant some more interest. So if they do give it an invest at 2pm or at 8pm then they are likely interested in seeing the development of the two systems and so the area they circle will likely encompass a large area of the eastern atlantic since the dynamics of the 2 systems will be tricky and the models that do develop something out there all seem to merge the 2 systems or have them interacting in some way.

[Sanibel]

You would think if it is there tomorrow it should make a run at forming. This was a few weeks earlier than I was expecting.

Maybe we're being suckered though because there was a wave that looked good here a few days ago that totally poofed.

[Aric Dunn]

This is not the type of TWD one would expect if the area was really interesting.. I guess at least they mention a surface trough.. lol

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N18W 8N31W 9N44W 8N62W. A
SURFACE TROUGH LIES WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 11N29W TO 7N31W
ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
27W-36W

[KWT]

It sure is a messy situation Aric, I'd have thought if the wave behind it decides to gain some convection that'll be the one to watch. I'd imagine the NHC are assuming the wave behind will be the one that actually develops and this will remain just an ITCZ pluse.

Still can't hurt to put a 10% or something on it I feel...

[Aric Dunn]

It sure is a messy situation Aric, I'd have thought if the wave behind it decides to gain some convection that'll be the one to watch. I'd imagine the NHC are assuming the wave behind will be the one that actually develops and this will remain just an ITCZ pluse.

Still can't hurt to put a 10% or something on it I feel...

right well i am sure they are watching it but looking how things normally evolve in situations like this, you'll find that in many cases such as this where a emerging wave is large and a preceding "wave" or pulse is small and somewhat stationary the large wave should absorb that energy as it approaches which would provide I think plenty of moisture to see something eventually get going.. also if you look at a bit bigger picture the large wave exiting the coast has some decent pull on the ITCZ which is why the pulse just seems to have stopped moving. eventually the wave will catch the pulse and both will break from the ITCZ over time and potentially organize. only time will tell however and I really thing the NHC is waiting to see how things evolve once the wave gets off the coast. I foresee as i mentioned before a very large circle when it does become an invest because there is a lot of uncertainties as to what will actually develop..

[Weatherfreak000]

It sure is a messy situation Aric, I'd have thought if the wave behind it decides to gain some convection that'll be the one to watch. I'd imagine the NHC are assuming the wave behind will be the one that actually develops and this will remain just an ITCZ pluse.

Still can't hurt to put a 10% or something on it I feel...

right well i am sure they are watching it but looking how things normally evolve in situations like this, you'll find that in many cases such as this where a emerging wave is large and a preceding "wave" or pulse is small and somewhat stationary the large wave should absorb that energy as it approaches which would provide I think plenty of moisture to see something eventually get going.. also if you look at a bit bigger picture the large wave exiting the coast has some decent pull on the ITCZ which is why the pulse just seems to have stopped moving. eventually the wave will catch the pulse and both will break from the ITCZ over time and potentially organize. only time will tell however and I really thing the NHC is waiting to see how things evolve once the wave gets off the coast. I foresee as i mentioned before a very large circle when it does become an invest because there is a lot of uncertainties as to what will actually develop..

Excellent Post. I completely agree. Waiting to see as well for that to occur.

[srainhoutx]

FWIW the 12Z GFS likes this area in the longer term concerning development...

[KWT]

The 12z becomes very messy indeed with it developing the same reigon the ECM does but it doesn't look to me like a tropical type development at first...

I think your right by the way Aric, the pluse slows down and the wave infront catches up and the energy shifts eastwards towards the greater Vorticity.

The first 96hrs shows this very nicely on that 12z GFS vort chart.

[Aric Dunn]

FWIW the 12Z GFS likes this area in the longer term concerning development...

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_180l.gif

I'm glad you posted that... I want to point out that the GFS merges the two features as I mentioned previously.

48 Hours GFS shows both areas


60 hours the area at 30 west is still at about 30 W but the wave is much closer


Then by 72 hours has them merged together and then eventually develops it

[KWT]

Yeah thats exactly what I see with the 12z GFS, and those images show the evolution very nicely. The blob sort of doesn't move very far whilst the wave catches up. The CMC appears to follow a similar trend with weak low pressure forming in the blob, then slows right down as the wave catches up.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Need to watch in about 48hrs to see if the convection develops further east with the wave.

[HURAKAN]

590
ABNT20 KNHC 291747
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Aric Dunn]

there we have it..

[cycloneye]

Finnally!!!

[Brent]

It's about time!

[Aric Dunn]

Finnally!!!

[img][/img]

no invest though ..lol

[HURAKAN]

If you look impressive for more than 24 hours, you get mentioned!!!