Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 92L)

[HURAKAN]

If it's able to lift a little bit or form a LLC over the open Caribbean Sea, development could occur in the next 48 to 72 hours.

[cycloneye]

This may make invest status in the next couple of days.

[KWT]

If it clear SA quickly enough it should develop, IMO its pretty simple, given the nice looking Vorticity lobe and good upper conditions...however just too much uncertainty still..

I do think this one has a good shot though in the W.CAribbean either way, just uncertainty as to whether it lifts up enough to avoid CA...my guess is no.

[ConvergenceZone]

This looks like it may actually be a US threat should it develop....One to keep our eyes on that's for sure.

[chzzdekr81]

18z GFS shows this system organized over TX/LA border in 204 hours:

[HURAKAN]

Unofficial Invest 23L

[rockyman]

11.6/61.5 1010mb from Navy's PREDICT 2010 Page:



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/predict-bin/predict.cgi

[ronjon]

Here's what the 18Z GFS does with this wave in 120 hrs.

[Ikester]

Strange sights so far...

we've had a 90% chance of development on a system that wasn't even an invest and now we're on page 3 of a system with a 10% chance and is getting quite a bit of attention....probably equal to TD 4. Funny...

[chzzdekr81]

Strange sights so far...

we've had a 90% chance of development on a system that wasn't even an invest and now we're on page 3 or a system with a 10% chance and is getting quite a bit of attention....probably equal to TD 4. Funny...

TD 4 is no threat to land at the moment and is in the middle of the Atlantic. GFS develops this system with a US landfall in less than 10 days! That's probably why people are more concerned with this one.

[ConvergenceZone]

Strange sights so far...

we've had a 90% chance of development on a system that wasn't even an invest and now we're on page 3 or a system with a 10% chance and is getting quite a bit of attention....probably equal to TD 4. Funny...

TD 4 is no threat to land at the moment and is in the middle of the Atlantic. GFS develops this system with a US landfall in less than 10 days! That's probably why people are more concerned with this one.

I agree, I'm MUCH more concerned about this than TD4 by a long shot....

[lonelymike]

Amazing what one run from one of worst performing models can do to people's fears. Of course given that part of the world's experiences with storms not surprising.

[KWT]

11.6N would put it just a touch north of the coast but not got by much, probably going to need to get upto 13N to really see stronger development, but then again the land friction has at time helped to tighten systems up so we will see...and whilst rare there have been storms that have developed close to SA, I think there was a system in 1989 that did that, maybe Joan?

[chzzdekr81]

I wonder if Euro is gonna develop anything out of this...

[Macrocane]

Actually the Canadian and the NOGAPS are also forecasting some sort of development although the GFS is the lony one that tracks the storm into the Gulf, I think that it bears watching but we have to see if there is consistency in the next runs.

[lonelymike]

18z GFS shows this system organized over TX/LA border in 204 hours:

Seems kinda strange this would take 8 days to get to LA. Steering currents are pretty straightforward into CA. Usual GFS garbage run.

[Macrocane]

..and whilst rare there have been storms that have developed close to SA, I think there was a system in 1989 that did that, maybe Joan?

Yes it was Joan, Felix developed very close to South America too and both if them made lanfall in Central America but let's wait and see for the next runs.

[HURAKAN]

Anticyclone developing over this system

[KWT]

18z GFS shows this system organized over TX/LA border in 204 hours:

Seems kinda strange this would take 8 days to get to LA. Steering currents are pretty straightforward into CA. Usual GFS garbage run.

For now but thats a BIG upper trough that comes down, and the ECM isn't much weaker with that upper feature...so it *will* lift out to some extent, its just I agree the 18z is far too north IMO.

All models agree on a track towards the WNW/NW by 72-96hrs, but by then most models are close enough to CA to not make much difference.

By the way the ECM does try to develop a system but just runs out of real estate...sounds like a couple of systems this season doesn't it!

[ROCK]

:uarrow: Actually the Canadian and the NOGAPS are also forecasting some sort of development although the GFS is the lony one that tracks the storm into the Gulf, I think that it bears watching but we have to see if there is consistency in the next runs.

Actually the EURO does see it and takes it into Beliz...dont have the resolution to tell if its closed or not but its there.....