NW Caribbean development Wednesday?

[Aquawind]

Please don't be offended.. I was just referring to the change from the east(I think you ment west) you mentioned with no detail as to what it was. Of course I am interested in the future as well..Afterall I have been a member here for a long time and enjoy all of the discussion.

So still all I can gather is..
The MJO pulse of which I don't think is a pattern changer but, a enhancer will move into the basin and a monsoon trough from the EPAC is going to enhance development as well.. Both of which could be very normal for this time of year and not really change the pattern but, enhance development. Sounds fairly typical to me for the later part of the season.

[srainhoutx]

Please don't be offended.. I was just referring to the change from the east(I think you ment west) you mentioned with no detail as to what it was. Of course I am interested in the future as well..Afterall I have been a member here for a long time and enjoy all of the discussion.

So still all I can gather is..
The MJO pulse of which I don't think is a pattern changer but, a enhancer will move into the basin and a monsoon trough from the EPAC is going to enhance development as well.. Both of which could be very normal for this time of year and not really change the pattern but, enhance development. Sounds fairly typical to me for the later part of the season.

You are correct, I meant W. I've had a couple of cups of coffee now. While you may not think the mjo pattern is a 'change', one could argue that the lack of a favorable pulse since early July is infact a change in Upper Air patterns. We shall see.

[Aquawind]

I am not going to agrue anything as I am simply looking for clarification.. No question things are going to pick up in the WC as they are suppose to this time of year... and yes MJO combined with Monsoon sounds like enhanced activity.. You can understand my interest in this "pattern change" being in SW Florida..

[RachelAnna]

rock you think this has a legitimate chance of developing like the cmc and nogaps show?
im interested to see if the euro tonight jumps on board.

CMC is been good since they tweaked it....168 is really not that far away....if it keeps it for a few more runs then game on IMO.....

When I saw that CMC I was thnking the same thing. I agree, not all that far away. Not alarmed but also going to keep an eye on the next few runs and see where they're bringing it in. Hope it doesn't pan out, but when I went to the store I saw water was on sale so I grabbed an extra 24 pack. Our household theory has always been the more prepared we are the less likely the storm will come our way. Obviously this is not true, but I gotta stay the course! That, and if runs continue to be similar I like to stay out of the stores when all the crazies start to get world of a possible cane.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS 12Z pulls it up over Cuba at 180...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


I am kinda enjoying posting these subpar models....like posting the NAM that Ivan likes to do....

[cycloneye]

Wow ROCK, look at the 12z CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

Wow ROCK, look at the 12z CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

just saw it..... choked on my hamburger with jalapenos...not good..

[ROCK]

thats like 3-4 runs in a row for the CMC.....it aint pushing it out either like the GFS likes to do....

[ConvergenceZone]

With all of these models jumping on development, I think it's becomming pretty evident that something is going to happen. It's just way too early to say when and where, although somewhere in the gulf seems more than likely....

[ROCK]

96hrs it pinches off from the monsoonal trof down there....and hauls butt into the GOM gaining strength the whole way....that would be a major if upper air would support it.....we all know the GOM 26 degree ISO can support a major right now....

[ROCK]

looking at the model run closer out to 144hr this thing is deepening right close to the coast....worst case scenario IMO.....its bombing out....

[BigA]

We don't know when something is going to develop or where it is going to go, but I think we can be reasonably certain that there is a good chance of getting a named storm, maybe more than one, out of the Western Caribbean within the next 7 to 10 days.

[perk]

thats like 3-4 runs in a row for the CMC.....it aint pushing it out either like the GFS likes to do....

Yeah Rock 3 or 4 runs has gotten my attention, and a 144hrs out concerns me also.

[Vortex]

Btw, 1745 closeup shows nice vorticity developing with some cyclonic turning moving NNW near 10n/82w...this is exactly where CMC indicated we might see this take place...Given what I'm seeing presently the CMC might be on to something...Keep an eye on this Texas its got your name all over it...




http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Vortex]

If you look at the close-up this afternoon down there you can see the spin developing off the monsoon trough lifting north...

[Vortex]

already fairly low pressures...




78 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.83 in (Falling)
Visibility: 6.0 miles

[Vortex]

This is probablly the first of 3-4 systems we get out of the western carribean on the final stretch...Unfortunately, TX to FL may have to deal with these storms and given the super high heat content thats disturbing...

[Dean4Storms]

This don't look good at all! Looks like a rough next couple weeks for the Gommers!

[srainhoutx]

Worrisome pattern ahead for sure...

[ROCK]

Yeah Steve the MJO is becoming favorable at the worst time......