Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

[HURAKAN]

NHC, 72 hours

[cycloneye]

Hot darn, CMC hurricane number 1 of 150 for 2011.

It's always fun to watch the CMC, it develops everything. Swear it was designed by JB.

Reality is more like the euro. What does it say?

Indeed. The board will turn active with this!







Uploaded by imageshack.us

[KWT]

Hmmm more then a few hints being suggested by the models that there could be development...

Then again the models sometimes do seem to struggle with LP's in this area, esp at the start/end of the season.

[srainhoutx]

MJO pulse looking favorable for potential development just beyond June 5th to mid month...

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO likes it ..

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 1052912!!/

[HURAKAN]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N77W TO 10N83W ON THE 1200 UTC
SURFACE MAP. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN AROUND 4 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT SAN
ANDRES AND THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS
OF 20 KT N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN E OF SAN ANDRES...THEN DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BETWEEN NOW AND THU. THIS SHOULD TIGHTEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON.
SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY WITH 8 TO
10 FT BY TUE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W S OF 13N WILL MIGRATE W THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KT E FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...MAINLY DUE TO ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING W THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT
WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SW FLOW FROM THE E
PACIFIC TO HELP DEVELOP THE WEAK LOW PRES IN SW CARIBBEAN.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Key West:

FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND...A TUTT WILL EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD
PINCHING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN RESPONSE
PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SO...EVEN AS THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IT
WILL BE OFFSET BY FALLING PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN. THUS...AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INDICATE ANYWHERE BETWEEN NEAR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONE MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA...BY BOTH TROPICAL
MOISTURE DOWN LOW WRAPPING AROUND A CARIBBEAN LOW INTO OUR AREA...AND
BY THE SUB TROPICAL JET THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE GFS IS INDICATING
PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF HOWEVER IS MUCH MORE
CONSERVATIVE...KEEPING THE DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

[ROCK]

12z NOGAPS developes it around 132hr.....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[MGC]

Dean....careful what you wish for....remember TS Barry in 2001?

Pretty good model consensus....we will see.

I'm hoping for a tropical depression here on MGC's lawn.....

[Javlin]

Dean....careful what you wish for....remember TS Barry in 2001?

Pretty good model consensus....we will see.

I'm hoping for a tropical depression here on MGC's lawn.....

I am with ya MGC need the rain in a bad way I even go as far as a TS/Cat 1

[Ptarmigan]

12z NOGAPS developes it around 132hr.....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Arlene?

[ROCK]

12z NOGAPS developes it around 132hr.....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Arlene?

maybe it gets named if the CMC has anything to do with it.... . the GFS is far weaker than the others. EURO pretty weak also....

18Z GFS crawls this down in the carib along the coast then up and out across the keys....of course it doesnt lift out until 288hrs so la la land....

Personally I think whatever it becomes will be buried into CA....just a hunch....

[JonathanBelles]

It's gonna be quite a while until anything gets moving. There are a lot of puzzle pieces that will be pretty stagnant through mid-week. I have a better explaination here: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... ow-moving/

Even when it gets moving, it will have to deal with shear and dry air.

[psyclone]

most early season stuff is junk so I'm not expecting much from this. i just hope it spreads some juice up here to kick start the rainy season. we need a jump!

[Brent]

Time to get this thread busy...

[gatorcane]

I am watching

I hope we get a lot of rain from this

High pressure does build in from the mid-atlantic and eastern CONUS next weekend so we will see how far north this low makes it before getting shunted westward.

Btw the euro model shows a similar solution.

Let the 2011 atl hurricane season begin.....

[Rgv20]

Wow not everyday that you get the GFS and Euro agree on a storm 9+ days out.....and to top it off it has not even form yet!!

[WeatherGuesser]

I for one sure hope this develops into something and makes its way towards the north central gulf coast area, although very doubtful it will happen. A little off topic but we are in a drought in a very bad way right now.

I think the folks in the Mississippi delta would argue with that right now considering they're dealing with record flooding.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

NOGAPS really deepens it after 120hr...similar to the CMC though I think the CMC is a bit agressive.

[Florida1118]

Models want to strengthen it for the most part this run. Im still thinking it slams into CA, but 9 days out I dont have much evidence