2012 EPAC season

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe I am wrong about this, but if I remember,the last TC that formed in the EPAC before May 15 was in 1996.

You are correct.

[cycloneye]

I found the track of that 1996 storm not named.

[Yellow Evan]

That was the pre-season storm I was talking about a few posts above. Also sunk a ship

[cycloneye]

The first named storm (Aletta) is officially now at EPAC. Now the question is,how many more will form down the road and if the CA and Mexican coast will be threatened by systems or they all go harmless to open sea.

[cycloneye]

First Tropical Weather Outlook of 2012 EPAC season

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...9...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2012 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALETTA A LET- AH MIRIAM MEER- YIM
BUD BUHD NORMAN NOR- MUHN
CARLOTTA KAR LOT- UH OLIVIA UH LIV- EE UH
DANIEL DAN- YUHL PAUL PALL
EMILIA EE MILL- YA ROSA ROH- ZUH
FABIO FAH- BEE O SERGIO SIR- GEE OH
GILMA GIL- MAH TARA TAIR- UH
HECTOR HEHK- TOR VICENTE VEE CEN- TAY
ILEANA ILL AY AH- NAH WILLA WIH- LAH
JOHN JAHN XAVIER ZAY- VEE UR
KRISTY KRIS- TEE YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
LANE LAYNE ZEKE ZEEK

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH NHC ON FACEBOOK AT
http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONA ... CENTER.GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST PACIFIC TWITTER
FEED IS AVAILABLE AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML...IN ALL
LOWER CASE.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON ALETTA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

The first named storm (Aletta) is officially now at EPAC. Now the question is,how many more will form down the road and if the CA and Mexican coast will be threatened by systems or they all go harmless to open sea.

Models think there will be a hurricane near the Mexican coast later this week/early next week.

[cycloneye]

Here comes what may be Bud.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Hurricane Jed]

According to weatherunisys. Last time there were 2 tropical cyclones in the EPAC in May was 2007 with Tropical Storms Alvin and Barbara. It also happened in 1956, Hurricane #1 and TS #2 and in 1984 with TS Alma and Hurricane Boris.

[Cyclenall]

The first named storm (Aletta) is officially now at EPAC. Now the question is,how many more will form down the road and if the CA and Mexican coast will be threatened by systems or they all go harmless to open sea.

Models think there will be a hurricane near the Mexican coast later this week/early next week.

Yeah there is some model consistently with a new significant tropical system that comes fairly close to Mexico; not too dissimilar to Adolph 01' which I keep referencing. Not sure about strength and this one is for 6 days from now. Buddy boy wants to make an appearance.

Here comes what may be Bud.

Already. There is a nice amount of convective energy around there, guaranteed something will pop from that location at some point.

[Yellow Evan]

Just hope it does not kill anyone.

[Cyclenall]

A little late but here:

My 2012 North Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Prediction is as follows:

23/14/7 (Final)

ACE: 169

These are some point form notes on my thoughts for this season:

- At least one category 5 hurricane will form
- There will be two major hurricane landfalls on the mainland Mexican coastline this season and one below major intensity further east.
- An increase in long tracked tropical cyclones heading towards the Cpac basin
- In the "Hyperactive" category for season classifications
- One Annular tropical cyclone will form during the season
- May will be very active if not hyper-active with a record of 3 TC's forming by June 1 2012

Note: None of this is based on scientific data or factual evidence. These are general thoughts that I have on what I think will happen.

[Yellow Evan]

A little late but here:

My 2012 North Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Prediction is as follows:

23/14/7 (Final)

ACE: 169

These are some point form notes on my thoughts for this season:

- At least one category 5 hurricane will form
- There will be two major hurricane landfalls on the mainland Mexican coastline this season and one below major intensity further east.
- An increase in long tracked tropical cyclones heading towards the Cpac basin
- In the "Hyperactive" category for season classifications
- One Annular tropical cyclone will form during the season
- May will be very active if not hyper-active with a record of 3 TC's forming by June 1 2012

Note: None of this is based on scientific data or factual evidence. These are general thoughts that I have on what I think will happen.

That is quite a prediction.

[cycloneye]

Maybe we may see soon invest 93E from the disturbance SE of 92E. Models develop another system behind 92E.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[Hurricane Jed]

Lining them up one after another. Hmmm could we see a record breaking 3 tropical cyclones in May?

[Yellow Evan]

Another system? Wow.

[Kingarabian]

Ya cuz the Atlantic is all like "yo, Mr. Pacific I'm not in the mood to develop anything right now"

[Yellow Evan]

Lol, I guess it is true. Well the EPAC is on to a big start, that is for sure.

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF has a 984mb Tropical System hugging the Mexican Coast 6 days from now...

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, antoher system? omg.

[cycloneye]

NOAA EPAC outlook:Near normal season is expected.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... eason.html