Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[southerngale]

I have a feeling, no data, that this season won't be nearly as active as was predicted before the season. These duds we've had may be indicative of a slow time until November. Any thoughts?

We've already had FOUR tropical storms form, before August. That's certainly not indicative of a slow time until November.

[sunnyday]

Yes, we have. However, they fizzled.
I don't want any storms to successfully reach any land mass, just for the record. But the four have been duds.

[RL3AO]

But if it is highly unusual for them to form in the first place, how can they be duds?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I made this chart earlier. The seasons in orange shading indicate years with an ACE >150 units (typically considered a hyperactive season). The season in bold represent years with at least 12 named storms. Notice that even some of the most active years didn't see the "E" storm until late August. Calling this season a bust just because we don't have the same level of activity in early August as last year would be silly.

[Hurricaneman]

first hurricane of each season tropical cyclogenesis date since 1975


major

2012 september 3
2011 august 21
2010 august 21
2009 august 15
2008 July 3
2007 august 13
2006 september 10
2005 july 4
2004 july 31
2003 august 27
2002 september 14
2001 september 1
2000 august 3
1999 august 18
1998 august 19
1997 september 3
1996 july 5
1995 august 8
1994 none
1993 august 22
1992 august 16
1991 august 16
1990 august 24
1989 august 30
1988 september 8
1987 september 20
1986 none
1985 august 28
1984 september 8
1983 august 15
1982 september 13
1981 september 3
1980 august 1
1979 august 25
1978 august 30
1977 august 29
1976 august 6
1975 august 24

first major before august 4
first major after august 1 31
first major after august 15 26
first major after september 1 10

a majority of hurricanes form after august 1st while a majority of majors happen after august 15th so theres no reason to worry about no major development unless its still looking quiet after August 15th

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean4Storms]

If the MDR doesn't moisten up it will hold the numbers down.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Yes, we have. However, they fizzled.
I don't want any storms to successfully reach any land mass, just for the record. But the four have been duds.

Andrea wasn't a dud, it was a typical June storm. I guess you can say Barry was a dud. But Chantal and Dorian, albeit weak, formed far in the eastern atlantic with Dorian being the second most east storm to develop on record. The strength of each system was reasonable for this time of year.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Dont know where all these posts are about this season being a bust. I know for sure that i am not already calling this season a bust nor I have i seen anybody else come out and say it. Maybe a few newer members are kind of insinuating it and dont know any better.

[Hammy]

1998 would be a good example of a slow start that ended up being quite active--the only storm before mid-August was Alex, a 50mph storm in late July (of similar track to Dorian even, and weaker). Then nothing at all for almost the first three weeks of August. Bonnie formed on Aug 20, and a little over a month later we were on Karl.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/GO ... 8-08-04-12

1999 as well, having only one storm in June, 60 mph, then nothing for a full 10 weeks save for a 12 hour tropical depression in early July.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/GO ... 9-08-01-12

and then there was the whole middle of August in 2010
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/GO ... 0-08-15-12

[SoupBone]

Dont know where all these posts are about this season being a bust. I know for sure that i am not already calling this season a bust nor I have i seen anybody else come out and say it. Maybe a few newer members are kind of insinuating it and dont know any better.

From what I've seen a few times on this board, anyone trying to suggest fewer numbers or a weaker season, even if they back it up with evidence, are greeted with hostile responses. Yet if the same person suggested a hyperactive season and backed it up with evidence, they are celebrated.

I understand that this board is specifically designed to discuss tropical systems and their impact, but people should really try to do a better job of responding to people with a firm explanation and not a condescending post. Just my honest observation.

[tolakram]

Dont know where all these posts are about this season being a bust. I know for sure that i am not already calling this season a bust nor I have i seen anybody else come out and say it. Maybe a few newer members are kind of insinuating it and dont know any better.

From what I've seen a few times on this board, anyone trying to suggest fewer numbers or a weaker season, even if they back it up with evidence, are greeted with hostile responses. Yet if the same person suggested a hyperactive season and backed it up with evidence, they are celebrated.

I understand that this board is specifically designed to discuss tropical systems and their impact, but people should really try to do a better job of responding to people with a firm explanation and not a condescending post. Just my honest observation.

I've been here watching and I don't think that's the case. If someone says the same thing 10 times in the 5 threads, then yes, they begin to receive hostile responses. The complaints I've seen are for people to quit harping on the same point over and over.

If you see a hostile post that you think is out of line, and this goes for everyone, please use the report button to bring it to our attention.

[Cyclenall]

I thought this would be the best thread to post this, something I realized yesterday and a statistical trivia I almost never hear about, Epac and Atlantic coupled major hurricane formation dates. What's interesting is neither the Epac or the Atlantic have had a major hurricane yet, more odd for the Epac of course. The last time a year had a major form later than now (both basins) was 2009, but because we're only a day away and then 3 days away from the actual storm becoming a major (Felicia Epac), I'll go on to 2007. August 8 for the TC and August 11 06z for when Flossie became a major in the Epac. Hurricane Dean came shortly after. What's interesting is its Flossie (just had the cycled name) and it became a major at a longitude of -138.70...very close to being a Cpac major and if it had delayed just hours then the magic date would be when Dean became a major a week later. We are only 5.5 days away from going beyond this, I don't know the all-time record yet.

I'm starting to see more similarities now to 2007 for different basins. I think it might be an analogue. Some aspects have been very similar so its starting to fit for me personally.

[ConvergenceZone]

Now, just because the middle to end of August is fast approaching, it doesn't mean, the hurricane season will get active. There have been plenty of low activity seasons.


Now there have also been years in the past where the conditions and tropical wave activity was strong this time of year, but not quite strong enough to generate further development and then the switched turned on. This year, I haven't seen much of that.

I think it's safe to say that this season may suddenly explode going into late August, or it might be one of those seasons that has very little activity at all. I don't think anyone can predict with confidence which one it will be right now.

[ninel conde]

Now, just because the middle to end of August is fast approaching, it doesn't mean, the hurricane season will get active. There have been plenty of low activity seasons.


Now there have also been years in the past where the conditions and tropical wave activity was strong this time of year, but not quite strong enough to generate further development and then the switched turned on. This year, I haven't seen much of that.

I think it's safe to say that this season may suddenly explode going into late August, or it might be one of those seasons that has very little activity at all. I don't think anyone can predict with confidence which one it will be right now.

actually, other than chantal and dorian, both moisture starved, there have been very few waves with any convection. 1998 has been talked about alot as being an active season with a late start. here is a loop of the season i found on you tube. if you watch june and july even though there were no storms you can see alot more convection and robust looking disturbances in the MDR than this season. just looking at that screen shot its stunning to see the tropical atlantic filled with moisture.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHEPMiv8bE8[/youtube]


this is the water vapor in the atlantic today:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

a stark difference.

[tolakram]

Hmmm. I think there is a stark difference between visible/IR over a season and water vapor during a SAL outbreak.

I took yesterdays visible images from the FTP site and present them here in native aspect ratio and shrunk to a size similar to that video. This is during a huge SAL outbreak, of course, so convection is naturally reduced where SAL is. You can see these outbreaks in that video as well.





Here is an august frame from that video with Alex, the first named storm of the year, struggling to survive. You can also see what appears to be a hefty SAL outbreak.



Bonnie would not form until August 19th.

From wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Atlan ... ane_season

Tropical Depression Two developed from a tropical wave at 1200 UTC on August 19, while located well east of the Lesser Antilles. After tracking west-northwestward for 24 hours, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie. While at tropical storm intensity, Bonnie passed north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on August 21. Early on the following day, a hurricane hunter aircraft indicated that the storm strengthened into a hurricane. Bonnie curved north-northwestward on August 23, shortly before it peaked with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h). The storm weakened slightly before making landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina with winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) early on August 27. The storm briefly weakened to a tropical storm later on August 27, though it re-strengthened into a hurricane as it was re-emerging into the Atlantic. Colder waters weakened Bonnie to a tropical storm by late on August 28. The storm then accelerated east-northeastward offshore New England and Atlantic Canada, before becoming an extratropical cyclone on August 30.[17]

IMO, had we been discussing this like we are now, everyone would have proclaimed the season over, and certainly they would have been complaining how wimpy Alex was and how hostile the MDR appears to be for tropical development.

Just my opinion, of course, but as it stands I think things are on track for a season much like 1998, and maybe worse.

[Ntxw]

Some very good information here. It is very quite possible a late blooming season could occur and since the Caribbean instability is better than tradition CV areas I would hedge bets that's where it might start.One stark difference I noticed is wasn't 1998 a La Nina year? Also global instability and moist atmosphere due to the aftermath of a super Nino (referring to my question in the steering patterns thread about connections to El Nino's and the resulting effects years after), in that those aspects I still believe 2001 is a better comparison to what we could see vs say 1998.

[tolakram]

Current vertical instability. These were all significantly below normal last year. Due to the SAL outbreak the Tropical Atlantic is way below normal. Will it moderate?

[gatorcane]

Still looking like the first couple of weeks in August could be quiet.

Still looking like we may need to wait until Aug 15-20th timeframe for things to ramp up based on long-range GFS, CFS, and MJO forecasts.

[ninel conde]

carib instability is above normal, but shear is also way above normal.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... r_VSHD.gif

[psyclone]

Well now that we're into what I consider real hurricane season (August-October) let's see what nature has in store. The frequency of storms (per climo) is on a rapid increase (albeit from a low baseline). While August is typically an active month overall it is very back loaded so a quiet first half wouldn't be a shocker. Having said all of that...it should get real pretty soon. Enjoy the current tranquility, review your supplies and plans and remain mindful of the fact that we're entering the time of year when things can change fast.