Posible development in BOC? (Is Invest 94L)

[TexasF6]

It seems to be trying to develop OVER the Yucatan! Just my opinion, but the last GFS run trys to bring it into the GOM and towards Mexico & Texas.







Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

There is a counterclockwise spin on the Yucatan Peninsula currently. This may have a chance after all to develop when it emerges into the BOC this weekend.

[ouragans]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized thunderstorms and
cloudiness over the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, Belize, northern
Guatemala, and adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A
weak surface low pressure system could form over the southern
Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so. At this time, only slow
development of this disturbance is expected due to proximity to land
and only marginally conducive upper-level winds. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph
during the next few days, emerging over the Bay of Campeche and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

Getting interesting.Invest later today.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity from the southern
Gulf of Mexico across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low pressure system could
form over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but
only gradual development is expected due to proximity to land and
marginally conducive upper-level winds. This system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph before it moves inland
early next week.
Formation chance through 48 hours.medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

Invest 94L is up