Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[Dean4Storms]

I would tend to think that if a large area of Thunderstorms sits out over the Gulf in all this that it is quite possible a Low forms out there and becomes the dominant Low. The water out there is toasty warm, talking upper 80'sF warm!

[gatorcane]

Convection on the increase:

[gatorcane]

Also 850MB vorticity charts shows that an area of weak low-level vorticity has formed over northern Florida / Big Bend area:

[stormhunter7]

[CrazyC83]

Could this also just cross Florida and become a Carolina coast (or general east coast) issue?

[Dean4Storms]

http://i.giphy.com/3o6ZsWsrBduGNj57ag.gif

It's low level vortex watching time!

Already see a small rotation about 50 miles South of Destin in that satellite loop!

[Dean4Storms]

Could this also just cross Florida and become a Carolina coast (or general east coast) issue?

Not this, it is forecast to drift NNW by all the guidance.

[TheStormExpert]

Wind Shear has increased some in the NE Gulf for the first time in weeks but still remains no more than on the light/moderate side. It very well could decrease back to the very favorable levels we've seen throughout the GoM for weeks this season! This along with SST's in the upper 80's to lower 90's is why the 00z UKMET bombs this potential feature out as it sits and spins in place for 3 days.

Vertical Instability is lacking a little but has been up and down overall, and mean sea level pressures are currently below normal.

Maybe this will not be a major tropical cyclone threat due to lack of time possibly over water, but I still believe the GoM is ripe and ready to support a significant hurricane at some point in the coming weeks that very well could threaten someone.

[gatorcane]

A closer look at the 00 UKMET for this system right before landfall:

[wxman57]

12Z UKMET in. Weak low early next week. I'm thinking any tropical storm might not develop until Wed-Thu (10th-11th).

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 29.0N 83.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2016 29.0N 83.9W WEAK
00UTC 08.08.2016 29.2N 83.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2016 30.4N 83.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2016 31.5N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2016 32.1N 84.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[tropicwatch]

No signs of organization with shower activity as of yet.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS not impressed whatsoever, just lots of rain for the SE.

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian shows a decent rain maker. FWIW, a 2nd system crosses FL and affects the same region a few days later

[hurricanes1234]

http://i63.tinypic.com/sxm610.jpg

92 degree waters?!!!!! Did I just see that correctly?!!!!

[cycloneye]

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it meanders
near the coast of the Florida panhandle during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[tolakram]

12Z euro running, this time has a vorticity max in NE Florida.

[Steve H.]

In the middle of all this mess, the CMC has a storm coming to EC Florida from the Bahamas





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[tolakram]

Washes it out over Georgia with the Weatherbell maps showing winds up to 25kts offshore GA and SC.

[northjaxpro]

="Steve H."]In the middle of all this mess, the CMC has a storm coming to EC Florida from the Bahamas

The CMC is the only major model showing a 998 mb tropical storm appproaching the East-Central Florida Coast within the next 7 days. Believe this at your own risk. The CMC suddenly builds in a ridge and develops a wave just east of the Bahamas. I definitely am not biting on this right now.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service[/quote]

[TheStormExpert]

In the middle of all this mess, the CMC has a storm coming to EC Florida from the Bahamas





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Pulls a Jeanne-like track where it tries to head due north from Hispaniola, feels the strong Bermuda High build in fast after the trough retreats and is shoved due west in East-Central FL as a moderate/strong TS.