Tropical Wave south of CV Islands (Is INVEST 98L)

[gatorcane]

Convection actually increasing as it moves away from Africa, saved image:

[USTropics]

12z ensemble guidance for tropical genesis probability within 48 hours compared to 00z has increased significantly for development:

[USTropics]

Loop over past 24 hours, definitely maintaining convection:

[wxman57]

It's heading right into a region of relatively strong wind shear that extends from the Tropical Atlantic, west through the Caribbean and into the Gulf. Development chances are near zero.

[Kazmit]

It's heading right into a region of relatively strong wind shear that extends from the Tropical Atlantic, west through the Caribbean and into the Gulf. Development chances are near zero.

Huh. This might explain why the NHC hasn't mentioned this yet. Maybe it could develop in the Caribbean, though.

[floridasun78]

wx say not thing look at here let look other wave west Africa if any

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS flirts with development and sends it into the Caribbean. Shows a closed low just before the Lesser Antilles in the long-range

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a couple
of hundred miles west of the coast of Africa is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days before
conditions become less favorable by the end of the week. This
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about
15 mph over the eastern Atlantic through mid-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[abajan]

18Z GFS flirts with development and sends it into the Caribbean. Shows a closed low just before the Lesser Antilles in the long-range

https://s4.postimg.org/3zouywx7h/gfs_ms ... atl_35.png

Maybe that's why the snails all around my house are climbing the walls. Some say that snails do that when they sense lots of rain on the way, to escape flood waters. Time will tell.

[cycloneye]

[Nimbus]

Sounds as though the NHC wouldn't delay an invest even though conditions are not favorable beyond a couple days. Has some SAL to the north but if it stays down near 10 or 12 degrees latitude it might have a chance, CDO has been persistent.

[Kazmit]

Up on the NHC now at 10%/20%. If it goes north of the Caribbean, it could either be a fish-spinner or possibly affect Bermuda or Atlantic Canada. They do mention conditions to become less favorable by the end of next week.

[weathaguyry]

Well, it looks as if the Atlantic finally starting to wake up (for real this time!) and that this will lead the Cape Verde wave train...

[blp]

Nice looking wave. Should get tagged soon.

[Alyono]

it's 98L

[cycloneye]

INVEST 98L is up