Tropical wave emerging West Africa (Is Invest 90L)

[JaxGator]

This may be a threat to the US east coast or Bermuda depending on troughs and ridges so one should stay vigilant and watch for trends

The18zGFS sends this between Bermuda and North Carolina late in its run and most definitely will change so we won't know where it will go and in terms of development it seems that this will probably wait until 60W before anything happens and that is kind of worrying as it would follow the 1000 to 850 steering which would drive this farther west

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

That's been one of the worries this season. Bears watching.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS looks to kill it in the Central Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

Down to 0%/10% @ 2am.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on Saturday. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as the wave moves generally westward through a marginally favorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Kazmit]

Down to 0%/10% @ 2am.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on Saturday. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as the wave moves generally westward through a marginally favorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

It makes sense that the've lowered it. It probably won't develop much until it crosses the East and Central Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona located over the central tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be
slow to occur as the wave moves generally westward through a
marginally favorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TheStormExpert]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Slow development of this system is possible while the
wave moves generally westward through a marginally favorable
environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS seems to be developing this again

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hammy]

The 18zGFS seems to be developing this again

144 hours too, seems to be in line with the Euro now, and the models seem to be lining up as it gets closer to reaching water and there's an actual physical system there.

[Kazmit]

Up to 0%/30% for the 8pm outlook.

[cycloneye]

Up to 0%/30% for the 8pm outlook.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system early next week while it moves generally
westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Kazmit]

Fiona seems to be clearing out the SAL for Pouch 22L. It should have a better potential to strengthen more.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Hammy]

Euro backing off some and pushing development back to 144-168 hour time frame so it's looking less and less likely with each run that we'll have any further storms in August, at least over the next week or so anyway.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[CrazyC83]

How often do two consecutive waves become significant hurricanes though? It seems that doesn't happen often even in very busy years. If 99L becomes a powerful Hurricane Gaston wouldn't it leave behind shear and cooler waters?

[Hammy]

How often do two consecutive waves become significant hurricanes though? It seems that doesn't happen often even in very busy years. If 99L becomes a powerful Hurricane Gaston wouldn't it leave behind shear and cooler waters?

I haven't done a count but two instances that come to mind are Edouard/Fran in 1996 and Igor/Julia in 2010. Upwelling I would assume would depend on track/size and shear wouldn't be an issue necessarily if they're far enough apart.

[USTropics]

UKMET develops this:

Code: Select all

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.7N  28.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 23.08.2016  14.0N  29.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.08.2016  15.3N  33.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.08.2016  16.6N  36.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.08.2016  18.7N  39.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.08.2016  21.2N  42.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.08.2016  23.4N  44.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.08.2016  25.4N  46.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


[Hammy]

GFS is being weird like it did with pre-Fiona, NHC raises development chances and then the model starts backing off.

[Kazmit]

Now at 10%50%.
A tropical wave located inland over western Africa is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. This wave is expected
to move offshore tonight and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent