Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa (INVEST 99L is up)

[RL3AO]

Yeah. That's that what we need to watch for - troughs picking up storms east but they get forced back west towards the CONUS.

The signal for SE US heat/ridging towards the middle of August has been clear for a while now. Obviously subject to change, but if something tries to approach the SE US by the middle of the month, I'm not very confident a trough will be there to turn it to sea.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah. That's that what we need to watch for - troughs picking up storms east but they get forced back west towards the CONUS.

The signal for SE US heat/ridging towards the middle of August has been clear for a while now. Obviously subject to change, but if something tries to approach the SE US by the middle of the month, I'm not very confident a trough will be there to turn it to sea.

Although the GFS continues to take this NW with a high in place lol.

[gatorcane]

Heading for Hebert box or just NE of at 198 hours

[Blown Away]

Looks like a trough off the EC waiting for it.

Both the 12z Euro and 12z GFS have the ridge building west towards the east coast. This run should be no different.

At least once a season the GFS will slam a Cat 4/5 into SFL... This might be the run...

[RL3AO]

Although the GFS continues to take this NW with a high in place lol.

Trough south of greenland is stronger than compared to 12z. Delaying the ridge expanding westward. We'll see if it can escape in time.

[RL3AO]

Here comes the ridge. I'm gonna guess Florida on this run, unless the northern US trough digs deeper than other models and previous runs.

[Kingarabian]

Here comes the ridge. I'm gonna guess Florida on this run, unless the northern US trough digs deeper than other models and previous runs.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/HvNWEBl.png[img]

Or even SE USA. Completely different from the Euro's Caribbean cruiser.

[AutoPenalti]

I know I've said this before but, anyone want to bet one of them drops all development next run?

[Blown Away]

Here comes the ridge. I'm gonna guess Florida on this run, unless the northern US trough digs deeper than other models and previous runs.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/HvNWEBl.png[img]

Or even SE USA. Completely different from the Euro's Caribbean cruiser.

NE Caribbean cruiser, Euro killed it over Hispaniola... 18z GFS a tad N of 12z Euro...

[RL3AO]

I know I've said this before but, anyone want to bet one of them drops all development next run?

Two weeks ago? Sure. Not in August with a strong CCKW. I'd be pretty surprised if this didn't develop within 7 days.

[weatherguy425]

Here comes the ridge. I'm gonna guess Florida on this run, unless the northern US trough digs deeper than other models and previous runs.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/HvNWEBl.png[img]

Or even SE USA. Completely different from the Euro's Caribbean cruiser.

Let's keep in mind there has been quite a bit of volatility with not only surface features, but overall 500 MB pattern. Any specific run at this point should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Kingarabian]

Here comes the ridge. I'm gonna guess Florida on this run, unless the northern US trough digs deeper than other models and previous runs.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/HvNWEBl.png[img]

Or even SE USA. Completely different from the Euro's Caribbean cruiser.

Let's keep in mind there has been quite a bit of volatility with not only surface features, but overall 500 MB pattern. Any specific run at this point should be taken with a grain of salt.

Yeah, but there's a big difference between the Euro and the GFS in the medium range so it bears mentioning.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS at 240 hours pretty far N to get SFL, could be Carolinas, or fish...

[Kingarabian]

240 hours (we've entered fantasy range) and still moving NW. Looks like the trough will catch it.

[SFLcane]

Recurring here it appears...

[TheStormExpert]

More than likely the trough will catch it, it usually does that far north in latitude. But the GFS is notorious for breaking down ridges or over strengthening troughs so that is worth keeping in mind.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like it slows and begins to recurve out to sea.

[weatherguy425]

Or even SE USA. Completely different from the Euro's Caribbean cruiser.

Let's keep in mind there has been quite a bit of volatility with not only surface features, but overall 500 MB pattern. Any specific run at this point should be taken with a grain of salt.

Yeah, but there's a big difference between the Euro and the GFS in the medium range so it bears mentioning.

True, but also different from its own 12Z run.

[Kingarabian]

Also interesting to note that the GFS keeps it mostly a Cat.1 2 through the 1st 10 days. Signs that conditions are not exactly favorable. Typically we would see the GFS bombing out.

[gatorcane]

Don't buy that GFS run at all. The Euro and UKMET are further south.