Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Siker]

12z CMC develops this in the Florida Straits.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
early Friday and then move quickly westward at about 20 mph. No
development is expected during the next few days, but environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
of the wave early next week over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[gatorcane]

12z CMC develops this in the Florida Straits.

Indeed, saved image:

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM has a TS now into the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico:

[cycloneye]

Another look at NAVIGEM. My expression as I am in PR and we dont need even a TS.

[wxGuy]

It's already starting to show so life isn't it? This is now 3 days in a row with models showing development and possible areas for landfall

[wxGuy]

it's still alive and look off the coast of africa

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
A tropical wave will emerge off the African coast this weekend ...
Likely won't develop right away but it has a long way to go across the Atlantic looking for the right place/time to possibly turn into a storm.
Peak of season is in next 3-weeks.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro mantains the wave from Africa all the way thru day 10 in the Florida Straits.

[stormlover2013]

and the ridge is stout

[HypercaneKyle]

Looks like this wave might potentially be a home brew problem beginning late-next week/early the following week.

[stormlover2013]

well if the wave gets in the gulf watch out.

[floridasun78]

i see big strong wave coming out now off coast that one we talking about? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

[Hammy]

well if the wave gets in the gulf watch out.

Latest GFS takes it into NE Florida/Carolinas, without developing by the looks of it.

i see big strong wave coming out now off coast that one we talking about? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

That's really far north, and it almost looks like it's moving NW on top of it.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has the wave moving into SE Florida and crossing the peninsula

[NDG]

My thinking is that as we get closer in time the models will start trending towards developing this tropical as it gets closer to the Greater Antilles & GOM.

[stormlover2013]

That won’t happen, also it’s the 18z run..in October yes would happen but ridge will be stout

[cycloneye]

@ToddKimberlain
ECMWF ensemble guidance starting to look interesting the first week of September in the Atlantic. Two good candidates for TCs, with the lead system off the SE coast the wave currently emerging from west Africa.

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1032738305497022464

[sphelps8681]

Well my sources say hurricane/Tropical threat on the Texas coast at the end of August first week of September. The Old Farmers Almanac. LOL!! Will see.

[cycloneye]

Discussion from the San Juan NWS:

On Tuesday night surface flow turns more east northeast as a
tropical wave approaches the area with the best moisture since at
least last week. This will cause a considerable increase in shower
and thunderstorm activity Tuesday night through Thursday. The
tropical wave will have deep moisture even if the TUTT low, that
was just northwest of the area on Tuesday retreats to the
northwest and enlarges over the western Atlantic just north of 25
north, leaving less than optimal upper level dynamics to enhance
convection. Nevertheless, at this time the GFS has a lifted index
of minus 10 at 30/18Z. If this should hold, some thunderstorms
could yield small hail and gusty winds along with the usual urban
and small stream flooding in west northwest Puerto Rico.