Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[Astromanía]

C depends

[Hurricaneman]

I could be wrong but it looks like the 0zGFS is showing moderate to strong shear in the Bahamas in 8 days which means little to no development but as we all know it’s hard to predict shear beyond 3 days

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Please don't doubt the system guys.

[Hurricaneman]

Not much development from this on the 0zGFS but it may show a nasty hurricane on the 6z run so being this far out we’re going to have a lot of inconsistency

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has this wave hanging around the Bahamas and over Florida from day 8 until the end of the run, highly doubt that’s going to happen, we’ll have at least a few dozen different outcomes the next week or so

The thing to watch for is can this maintain convection when it detaches from the ITCZ or will it poof that’s the one thing that will matter by day 4 as it nears the islands

Another thing to watch is if this develops before the islands or even over them as they are at higher risk for floods than many areas

[northjaxpro]

Will the wave develop?
A yes
B no

This is a tough question this season as wave after wave has had SAL and dry air put the whammy on them.

If it can find a way to get past 60 degrees Longitude and hold on with persistent convection, it may have a chance to develop. A HUGE IF on this though. We will see how this one will fare.

[abajan]

Is the 35 knot wind indicated by the highlighted wind barb in the image an error? And if it isn't, is that wind associated with the wave in question?

[Aric Dunn]

As with all model storms.. all we can do is watch and wait. There is some potential with this energy.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS:

Attention will then turn to a tropical wave, currently located
between 30 and 35 degrees west Longitude as of this morning, as
most of the model guidance bring this feature near the local area
late Sunday into Monday. Disagreement lies in the intensity of
the wave. The GFS model is very bullish with the wave as it has
precipitable water values approaching 2.5 inches and as a result
would bring widespread heavy rainfall activity to the area. The
ECMWF model, on the other hand, is far weaker with the wave and
as a result the rainfall activity would not be as significant.
Therefore, confidence continues to remain low on how significant
of an impact this wave will have on the forecast area. At this
point, it is best to continue to monitor the latest forecast
updates throughout the rest of the week as model consensus becomes
better.

[wxman57]

The GFS appears to be developing something that moves off the west coast of Africa tomorrow, not the weak wave we've been discussing here. It's way too far west to be the developing disturbance. Trace it back east from where it reaches the eastern Caribbean Saturday night.

[SFLcane]

The GFS appears to be developing something that moves off the west coast of Africa tomorrow, not the weak wave we've been discussing here. It's way too far west to be the developing disturbance. Trace it back east from where it reaches the eastern Caribbean Saturday night.

Don’t see much of anything on this mornings 06z gfs run other then some weak lows across the mdr that don’t amount to anything.

[Aric Dunn]

6z gfs is quite a bit slower and thus it never finds a good environment.

[Aric Dunn]

The GFS appears to be developing something that moves off the west coast of Africa tomorrow, not the weak wave we've been discussing here. It's way too far west to be the developing disturbance. Trace it back east from where it reaches the eastern Caribbean Saturday night.

Don’t see much of anything on this mornings 06z gfs run other then some weak lows across the mdr that don’t amount to anything.

18z last was clealry developing the wave discussed here.

If you look at various levels you will see that the 06z is merging the two waves and thus slowing down when it arrives to the islands. That time difference causes it to never find the better environment.

So the question is srill the same... what will this wave do as it approaches the islands in 4 to 5 days. And will it merge or be distinct. ??


Another thing of note. When your looking at the various layers... the 700mb and 500mb vorts get rip off the 850 mb and taken north while the 850mb vort keeps chugging west..

[OuterBanker]

Apparently, the GFS has given Texas and the U.S. in general a full pardon this morning.

[NDG]

GFS and Euro have a big disagreement. The GFS forecasts the TUTT north of P.R. to move west out of the way while the Euro keeps it in place, the reason why the Euro has not been doing much with this tropical wave. In the other hand some Euro ensembles show development from another TW in the western Caribbean/BOC closer to C.A., showing better UL conditions there in 7-10 days.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS and Euro have a big disagreement. The GFS forecasts the TUTT north of P.R. to move west out of the way while the Euro keeps it in place, the reason why the Euro has not been doing much with this tropical wave. In the other hand some Euro ensembles show development from another TW in the western Caribbean/BOC closer to C.A., showing better UL conditions there in 7-10 days.

The same TUTT that developed around the time of Invest 96L? Either way development chances seem extremely low until at least The Bahamas or FL Straits, even then they’re still low.

[NDG]

The GFS appears to be developing something that moves off the west coast of Africa tomorrow, not the weak wave we've been discussing here. It's way too far west to be the developing disturbance. Trace it back east from where it reaches the eastern Caribbean Saturday night.

I still see it that it is this TW we are talking about that the GFS is developing more often than not.
Maybe out of a piece of energy lagging a little behind it but certainly not from a TW that it is still in Africa today.

[abajan]

The GFS appears to be developing something that moves off the west coast of Africa tomorrow, not the weak wave we've been discussing here. It's way too far west to be the developing disturbance. Trace it back east from where it reaches the eastern Caribbean Saturday night.

I still see it that it is this TW we are talking about that the GFS is developing more often than not.
Maybe out of a piece of energy lagging a little behind it but certainly not from a TW that it is still in Africa today.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aBRZSGx.gif[url]

Pretty cool overlay of the red dashed line segment. What software did you use to do that?

[NDG]

The GFS appears to be developing something that moves off the west coast of Africa tomorrow, not the weak wave we've been discussing here. It's way too far west to be the developing disturbance. Trace it back east from where it reaches the eastern Caribbean Saturday night.

I still see it that it is this TW we are talking about that the GFS is developing more often than not.
Maybe out of a piece of energy lagging a little behind it but certainly not from a TW that it is still in Africa today.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aBRZSGx.gif[url]

Pretty cool overlay of the red dashed line segment. What software did you use to do that?

ScreenToGif

[Aric Dunn]

It is definitely the wave we are discussing here that the gfs developed last night and what needs to be tracked. The other wave may merge or split off which complicates things.

You dont need TPW to track this wave. It is clearly visible on sat. Tracking low level winds.

As noted ... it is a Low amplitude wave with cyclonic turning.. pretty straight forward.