2020 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

Now this is great news. Guam radar has been a pain up and down during the past several years. Hope it stays up for good!

https://i.imgur.com/41cWXeq.jpg

I hope they will finally fix the blind spot (side towards the islands up north)

[euro6208]

Elsewhere, a Rossby wave over the West Pacific may provide a chance for tropical cyclogenesis over the West Pacific south of Guam during Week-2.

[1900hurricane]

Now this is great news. Guam radar has been a pain up and down during the past several years. Hope it stays up for good!

https://i.imgur.com/41cWXeq.jpg

I hope they will finally fix the blind spot (side towards the islands up north)

That's something that can't be fixed without moving the radar site. The 'blind spot' on the 0.5º beam angle is due to terrain blocking the beam in that direction. Higher beam angles are actually able to see over the terrain.

[euro6208]

Now this is great news. Guam radar has been a pain up and down during the past several years. Hope it stays up for good!

https://i.imgur.com/41cWXeq.jpg

I hope they will finally fix the blind spot (side towards the islands up north)

That's something that can't be fixed without moving the radar site. The 'blind spot' on the 0.5º beam angle is due to terrain blocking the beam in that direction. Higher beam angles are actually able to see over the terrain.

True. The blind spot is caused mostly by Mount Barrigada and the hills north of the radar.

[mrbagyo]

Ahhh, so the radar in Guam isn't located on the highest point of the island.
Thanks for that info - much appreciated.

[Hayabusa]

So weather.us changed the TC intensity format on the Euro ensembles...

old


new

But for me the new TC intensity colors pasted on the map are too "dark" to see and differentiate...

So I adjusted the brightness and contrast

Now that's a little better
The new TC intensity format is great the only problem that it is too dark, wish they adjust it to as bright as the old one.

And also GFS is intermittently spawning TCs and latest Euro ensembles showing something too, could mean a possible tropical activity starting next week.

[doomhaMwx]

Here is a summary of the outlooks issued by various organizations for the 2020 Typhoon Season. The number of tropical/named storms are forecast to be about normal or maybe even slightly above-normal, but intensity-wise, there is a high probability of a weaker than average season. Factors considered are the potential development of La Niña (or La Niña-like) conditions and possible negative IOD in the coming months.

There is only one named storm thus far (Vongfong), which also peaked as a category 3 typhoon.

Details: TSR OWS AccuWeather

[aspen]

Here is a summary of the outlooks issued by various organizations for the 2020 Typhoon Season. The number of tropical/named storms are forecast to be about normal or maybe even slightly above-normal, but intensity-wise, there is a high probability of a weaker than average season. Factors considered are the potential development of La Niña (or La Niña-like) conditions and possible negative IOD in the coming months.

There is only one named storm thus far (Vongfong), which also peaked as a category 3 typhoon.

Details: TSR OWS AccuWeather

https://i.imgur.com/apT7fBr.png

I’m thinking we may only get a single Big One this year in the WPac (think Megi and the 2010 season), and most of the Northern Hemisphere’s monster storms will be in the Atlantic like in 2017.

[aspen]

The GFS and CMC want to quickly spin up a TS/Cat 1 right next to the Philippines within the next 48 hours, sort of comparable to Vongfong. The NAVGEM and ICON show a weak system, and the Euro just does not care at all.

The models that do show “future Nuri” also have it being a somewhat significant system in the SCS after passing over Luzon, maybe a moderate TS.

[euro6208]

Literally cooking out there.

[Hayabusa]

Is June gonna produce another one?

[euro6208]

The TCHP and 26.C Isotherm in the WPAC is known to be the most expansive and constant in the world.

One thing that struck me is how expansive the TCHP is. Even reaching Hawaii. Going back to 2011, this is the warmest it's ever been.

[euro6208]

Here is a summary of the outlooks issued by various organizations for the 2020 Typhoon Season. The number of tropical/named storms are forecast to be about normal or maybe even slightly above-normal, but intensity-wise, there is a high probability of a weaker than average season. Factors considered are the potential development of La Niña (or La Niña-like) conditions and possible negative IOD in the coming months.

There is only one named storm thus far (Vongfong), which also peaked as a category 3 typhoon.

Details: TSR OWS AccuWeather

https://i.imgur.com/apT7fBr.png

I’m thinking we may only get a single Big One this year in the WPac (think Megi and the 2010 season), and most of the Northern Hemisphere’s monster storms will be in the Atlantic like in 2017.

Single big one this year and that typhoon is incredibly strong and ends up hitting the Philippines. We've seen this a few times especially during a nina year.

[1900hurricane]

Basin is very unfavorable for development in the short term. Zonal TUTT with three distinct cells plus the Mei-yu equals shear shear shear.

[euro6208]

Sorry been busy.

Quite slow out there you say?

On average, about two tropical cyclones form each June, with most development occurring after 15 June.

2019 saw one although JTWC didn't carried it because it was a ST.

2020 with Nuri.

Right on schedule.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Here is a summary of the outlooks issued by various organizations for the 2020 Typhoon Season. The number of tropical/named storms are forecast to be about normal or maybe even slightly above-normal, but intensity-wise, there is a high probability of a weaker than average season. Factors considered are the potential development of La Niña (or La Niña-like) conditions and possible negative IOD in the coming months.

There is only one named storm thus far (Vongfong), which also peaked as a category 3 typhoon.

Details: TSR OWS AccuWeather

https://i.imgur.com/apT7fBr.png

I’m thinking we may only get a single Big One this year in the WPac (think Megi and the 2010 season), and most of the Northern Hemisphere’s monster storms will be in the Atlantic like in 2017.

I thought it only takes 1?

[dexterlabio]

https://i.imgur.com/apT7fBr.png

I’m thinking we may only get a single Big One this year in the WPac (think Megi and the 2010 season), and most of the Northern Hemisphere’s monster storms will be in the Atlantic like in 2017.[/quote]


This happens in a classic La Nina year coming from a recent significant El Nino event, like in 1973, 1998, 2010, and 2017. I'm not sure if this year will end up a La Nina year, although it looks like we're going there...and weirdly enough 2019 is supposedly an El Nino year due to consecutive trimontly readings above 0.5C, but WPAC was not mad active last year for an El Nino. I guess only time will tell.

Personally though, any place in the world right now is not ready for an active and destructive tropical cyclone season.

[euro6208]

Models keep the basin quiet until the first half of July.

A weak MJO is possible end of June into beginning next month.

[euro6208]