Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 97L)

[Hurricane Mike]

I don't like the ones that disappear....then pop and look good....then are gone....but suddenly blossom....then spin a bit...then go away....then spin again. The "bursting" waves, I guess you could call it. It's how many storms begin.

[AtlanticWind]

We should get an invest on this sometime sunday I imagine.

[lsuhurricane]

0z ICON brings this to hurricane strength near the eastern tip of Cuba one week from today

[Blown Away]

12z Euro doesn’t see much with this wave.

[sma10]

0z ICON brings this to hurricane strength near the eastern tip of Cuba one week from today

Minor correction: western tip of Cuba

Also, UKmet starting to like this wave, calling for development in W Carib by day 6, similar to ICON solution, but a bit further SW

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020

1. A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical
Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is
producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the
next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development
while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea
on Tuesday. After that time, the system is expected to move more
slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and
upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the
middle to latter part of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[northjaxpro]

Up to 30% now. We should see the Invest designation on this feature very shortly.

[GCANE]

Solid looking LL vort far from the ITCZ and tracking into an anticyclone.
Refiring convection south of the vort.
Models get aggressive in the west Carib.
One to watch for the GoM.

[ouragans]

Up to 30% now. We should see the Invest designation on this feature very shortly.

Once it reaches at least 20% at 48 hrs

[jaxfladude]

Is this the start of the scary times with this system?

[cycloneye]

A fast-moving tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the
Windward Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at
about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely
to limit development while the system approaches the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system is
expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western
Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for
development during the middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

Something else that may develop but likely not before reaching the islands. May have to wait until reaching the Western Caribbean. Models support is pretty anemic still.

Favorable look in the Western Caribbean:

[toad strangler]

Something else that may develop but likely not before reaching the islands. May have to wait until reaching the Western Caribbean. Models support is pretty anemic still.

Favorable look in the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/sDr6cCR9/gfs-shear-watl-21.png

The lemon is nearly the width of the CONUS. That right there tells me it’s not gonna develop near term.

[Aric Dunn]

This low should begin to tap into the moisture tail of josephine later today and overnight. probably see an uptick in convection and a step closer to development.

It has begun to encircle the low with moisture from the north. cutting off the SAL.

[mpic]

I want to say that given how dry it is Texas ( no rain in what seems like forever) how could it even survive? But with the high humidity, it really isn't dry at all. Is a low pressure system looming?

[NDG]

12z GFS continues with developing this TW as it gets to the Western Caribbean before reaching the Y.P.

[psyclone]

Something else that may develop but likely not before reaching the islands. May have to wait until reaching the Western Caribbean. Models support is pretty anemic still.

Favorable look in the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/sDr6cCR9/gfs-shear-watl-21.png

The lemon is nearly the width of the CONUS. That right there tells me it’s not gonna develop near term.

Doesn't this shape say more about expected fast forward motion rather than near term development odds? That's the way i always interpret it. the system is hauling. present extrapolation would imply a yucatan/western gulf threat down the road which matches nicely with climo..

[Aric Dunn]

With the Increasing convection and Model support, Chances are likely going to go up in the short term and long term.

vorticity is increasing convection building around the "center" ... looking good..

[toad strangler]

Something else that may develop but likely not before reaching the islands. May have to wait until reaching the Western Caribbean. Models support is pretty anemic still.

Favorable look in the Western Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/sDr6cCR9/gfs-shear-watl-21.png

The lemon is nearly the width of the CONUS. That right there tells me it’s not gonna develop near term.

Doesn't this shape say more about expected fast forward motion rather than near term development odds? That's the way i always interpret it. the system is hauling. present extrapolation would imply a yucatan/western gulf threat down the road which matches nicely with climo..

That too

[gatorcane]

Development certainly looks possible once it nears the Western Caribbean. That is where the wave should slow its forward speed and convection should start to “pile up” not to mention a large anticyclone should be there.