Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[WeatherEmperor]

I think it was Wxman57 who said this wave could be a problems for the islands and points west??




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[SFLcane]

EPS should be interesting.

[SFLcane]

I think it was Wxman57 who said this wave could be a problems for the islands and points west??

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Yep that’s it.

[SFLcane]

Ok eps... sure is ominous.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro looks like another struggle-cane sneaking west like Laura. However, very inconsistent with intensity. IMO, the abundance of shear point to a weaker system until reaching 50W or so.

[Spacecoast]

12z EMCF Gen Wind tracks Forecast (Paulette & Eighteen tracks not shown)
Appears to be another traffic jam, with 2 waves exiting ~9/10 (~12.5N), then another 9/12 exit to the north (~15N)

[TheStormExpert]

So basically we go from a hurricane on 00z Euro with this wave to a weak Storm on 12z Euro? Sounds about right considering the state of these global models this year.

[LarryWx]

Here is hour 360 of the 12Z EPS: all or most of these 13 appear to be from a combo of Rene and the wave currently inside Africa with I think most from the wave inside Africa. I can definitely identify one in the C GOM and one in the E GOM as being from the wave currently inside Africa. It is hard to decipher some of these:

[CrazyC83]

I have a feeling this will be the big one for September. Sally could be a name that we all remember.

[us89]

Up from 0/50 to 0/60 for the 8 PM outlook:

2. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
late Wednesday or Thursday. Gradual development is anticipated once
the system moves over water, and a tropical depression could form
late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Blown Away]

This could be a true long tracker Cape Verde storm if it develops soon after splashing into the Atlantic. Maybe a huge ACE producer in the making??

[Spacecoast]

18Z GEFS Genesis Prob back up to 18% with 4 members showing TD/TS criteria before hour 120

18z GEFS Details:

[aspen]

This could be a true long tracker Cape Verde storm if it develops soon after splashing into the Atlantic. Maybe a huge ACE producer in the making??

If this stays at a low latitude, doesn’t recurve into the colder northern Atlantic, and ends up becoming a major, I think this could be a 40+ ACE system. That would be a massive ACE producer on top of Paulette and Rene, which look like they’ll be sticking around for a while and could both pump out 20+ ACE each.

[Hurricaneman]

This could be a true long tracker Cape Verde storm if it develops soon after splashing into the Atlantic. Maybe a huge ACE producer in the making??

If this stays at a low latitude, doesn’t recurve into the colder northern Atlantic, and ends up becoming a major, I think this could be a 40+ ACE system. That would be a massive ACE producer on top of Paulette and Rene, which look like they’ll be sticking around for a while and could both pump out 20+ ACE each.

And don’t be surprised if this is near the islands in 8 to 10 days, could be a threat of major proportions if the euro ensembles have any merit

[Hurricaneman]

These are the opinions of a non professional, for official products check the NHC, NWS and NOAA

My 5 day forecast for this wave

Splashdown should be in 60hrs and cyclogenesis in 72 But I do expect some strengthening to 120hrs

Now. No development
12hrs. No development
24hrs. No development
36hrs. No development
48hrs. No development
60hrs. 50% of development
72hrs. 90% of development
84hrs. TD. 35mph
96hrs. TS. 40mph
108hrs TS. 50mph
120hrs TS. 60mph

[EquusStorm]

Consistently ominous solutions with this one. Haven't had a real long track threat coming from the east this year but things may be about to get crankin'. The question is, will something snipe a name before this goes offshore or will this be Sally? God it's SO WEIRD to be talking about S/T/V/W named Cabo Verde peak season mid-September long trackers. What a year!

[LarryWx]

For the wave still in Africa, the 0Z UKMET is bullish and a bit further south than the 12Z run:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.0N 16.7W


LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND

VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 60 12.0N 16.7W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.09.2020 72 12.2N 19.7W 993 40
1200UTC 11.09.2020 84 12.4N 22.7W 983 52
0000UTC 12.09.2020 96 13.1N 25.5W 981 50
1200UTC 12.09.2020 108 13.8N 28.8W 979 50
0000UTC 13.09.2020 120 14.7N 31.8W 976 54
1200UTC 13.09.2020 132 15.7N 34.7W 972 63
0000UTC 14.09.2020 144 17.0N 37.3W 969 67

[WeatherEmperor]

Those of you in the islands will not like what the 00z Euro does with this wave




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[WeatherEmperor]

Ouch! It is 216hrs out so lets hope this does not happen




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[LarryWx]

This 0Z Euro run reminds me of that aggressive run from a few days ago that scared us but this obviously is much scarier since it is much further west due to it being a several days later run.