Tropical Wave in the East-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 92L)

[Spacecoast]

Isn't the CMC the only model left developing this 2nd system?
If the ultra-sensitive GFS-Para does not develop this, I'm beginning to get bearish.

[toad strangler]

Isn't the CMC the only model left developing this 2nd system?
If the ultra-sensitive GFS-Para does not develop this, I'm beginning to get bearish.

I guess I see your point if you are a disciple of the models.

[Spacecoast]

Isn't the CMC the only model left developing this 2nd system?
If the ultra-sensitive GFS-Para does not develop this, I'm beginning to get bearish.

I guess I see your point if you are a disciple of the models.

Quite the opposite. Models have lead me astray too much recently with their wild journeys. I am becoming a model skeptic, at least after 96 hours.
Of course, as soon as I say that, they will prove to be correct.

[edu2703]

Isn't the CMC the only model left developing this 2nd system?
If the ultra-sensitive GFS-Para does not develop this, I'm beginning to get bearish.

Model support or not, NHC is now giving 20% formation chance in five days.

Let's see if they will keep increasing the chances in the coming days.

[SFLcane]

Long range 18z GEFS ensembles are quite busy in the GOM near FL.



Some ensembles have this developing late this weekend into early next week.

[TheStormExpert]

Seems like a lot of bark no bite with the GEFS.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS-Para is slowly rolling in up to 150 hours and shows the most vorticity since 00z. The 06z and 12z runs were less than impressive.

[toad strangler]

Pick your thread with this image

[Spacecoast]

Isn't the CMC the only model left developing this 2nd system?
If the ultra-sensitive GFS-Para does not develop this, I'm beginning to get bearish.

Model support or not, NHC is now giving 20% formation chance in five days.

Let's see if they will keep increasing the chances in the coming days.

20% sounds right to me. FSU has it @20% in five days, 27% in seven days based soley on CMC.
More realistic than last night's GFS 'Cat5 into SFL' run, which has since vaporized.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well the Para just went full on 18z Happy Hour...

[AnnularCane]

Go home, Para, you're drunk.

[GeneratorPower]

:uarrow:

Go home, Para, you're drunk.

Never seen a Fort Myers hit from the northwest before.

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow:

Go home, Para, you're drunk.

Definitely wandering around like it is...

[SFLcane]

Lol WTH I can see the night is off to a fun start. Brings a major briefly into SW Fl the loops it back into the GOM.

Sure..

[ElectricStorm]

Well the Para just went full on 18z Happy Hour...

https://i.imgur.com/huQIWDe.gif

Lol at that SE moving storm in the EPAC on top of all the Atlantic fun in that run

[SouthFLTropics]

With the steering pattern showing a loop and then shooting off to the west, we better hope this thing doesn't decide to organize faster and pop up in the Bahamas. If that pattern holds, it could put the East Coast of the peninsula under the gun.

[SouthFLTropics]

Lol WTH I can see the night is off to a fun start. Brings a major briefly into SW Fl the loops it back into the GOM.

Sure..

https://i.imgur.com/EomFKm.gif

It is 2020... And it's Halloween month too. There's monsters out there you know!!!

[gfsperpendicular]

Well the Para just went full on 18z Happy Hour...

https://i.imgur.com/huQIWDe.gif

Ah yes, a 4-storm Fujiwhara

[Hurricaneman]

This system is going to depend on what the first wave does, if it gets hung up over Central America and the Yucatán then this system could go bonkers but if the first wave is stronger this wave will get sheared out

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM moves this into the SE GOM then it turns E to ENE and moves over South Florida while rapidly intensifying over the Bahamas