Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic

[LarryWx]

Increased from 40% to 50%:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Dexter, located over the western Atlantic Ocean.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
later today. Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is
possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while
it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[BobHarlem]

Euro Ensembles still well east of the GFS, which I think will probably get more aligned with the Euro as time goes on and stay off shore. 6Z GFS put landfall in Charleston.



GFS Ensembles:


Tidbits is probably getting hit with traffic, and likely DDoSd, this year in particular I'd get familiar with some alternates
like https://pivitolweather.com https://weathermodels.com https://polarwx.com https://weathernerds.com https://cyclonicwx.com/ weatherbell and a few more (some have paywalls or partial paywalls).

To post images use something like imgur.com (2MB Limit on size) or https://postimages.org/ (or a few others) and put the image url in between two img tags. Ctrl+I on firefox shows a window with a "media" tab that lists all the images and their urls you are currently looking at (unless it uses javascript to generate them to a canvas) Another option is a snippet for a screencap Windows Key+Shift+S will bring up the snippet box on windows 10 & 11, and if you bring up snipping tool you can safe those to a file. Or just paste it into sites that allow clipboard pasting.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Still showing a very large MH impact on the SE CONUS in the long range... S.C. on this run and (2) hits on Central Florida earlier...

[cycloneye]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/0jvfYkTv/06z-GFS.jpg [/url]
06z GFS... Still showing a very large MH impact on the SE CONUS in the long range... S.C. on this run and (2) hits on Central Florida earlier...

To let you know that moved your post from the models discussion thread to the African Wave thread.

[Kohlecane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/0jvfYkTv/06z-GFS.jpg [/url]
06z GFS... Still showing a very large MH impact on the SE CONUS in the long range... S.C. on this run and (2) hits on Central Florida earlier...

Well that escalated quickly , being here near Hilton Head all my Evacs spots would still be getting hurricane force winds lol

[cycloneye]

8 AM cone a little more south and southwest.

[Blown Away]

8 AM cone a little more south and southwest.

https://i.imgur.com/GjkyNr5.png

NHC starting to flatten out and bend that area more W.

[TallyTracker]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/0jvfYkTv/06z-GFS.jpg [/url]
06z GFS... Still showing a very large MH impact on the SE CONUS in the long range... S.C. on this run and (2) hits on Central Florida earlier...

Well that escalated quickly , being here near Hilton Head all my Evacs spots would still be getting hurricane force winds lol

With an eye that large, the hurricane force winds would likely cover the entire South Carolina coast! Thankfully just a single run but disturbing nonetheless.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hmmm...the GFS has always had an out to sea bias in the long to medium range, so either they tweaked the model or my concern level has gone up a bit.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1952362682939580825

[skillz305]

That GFS run into Melbourne almost made my head spin. We can’t do another hurricane in central Florida again. Pray it curves OTS. I have my first born child coming in the next 24 hours. God bless everyone!

[BobHarlem]

The 12z icon run shifted west a bit, but still recurves this well east of Bermuda.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/0jvfYkTv/06z-GFS.jpg [/url]
06z GFS... Still showing a very large MH impact on the SE CONUS in the long range... S.C. on this run and (2) hits on Central Florida earlier...

Safest place to be at 12 days out

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS is much much weaker so far with this, and further south, it gets over the Virgin Islands in a week. I think it's given up the idea for the big storm.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That GFS run into Melbourne almost made my head spin. We can’t do another hurricane in central Florida again. Pray it curves OTS. I have my first born child coming in the next 24 hours. God bless everyone!

Congratulations!!! Next thing you know, they will be 18 and leaving home. It all happens so fast.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z GFS is much much weaker so far with this, and further south, it gets over the Virgin Islands in a week. I think it's given up the idea for the big storm.

https://i.imgur.com/j0OLlix.png

I'd also be interested to watch the ensembles. Operational runs are quite sensitive and volatile; it's not uncommon to show a bona fide monster on one run and absolutely zilch on a subsequent run.

[WeatherBoy2000]

12z GFS is much much weaker so far with this, and further south, it gets over the Virgin Islands in a week. I think it's given up the idea for the big storm.

https://i.imgur.com/j0OLlix.png

Need to see more consistent runs before this can be said definitively.

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS is much much weaker so far with this, and further south, it gets over the Virgin Islands in a week. I think it's given up the idea for the big storm.

https://i.imgur.com/j0OLlix.png

Need to see more consistent runs before this can be said definitively.

For this run for sure. But the fact this, Canadian, Icon, and Euro are all so vastly different, along with the ensembles being quite different, something else just seems off. Dexter is another example. There haven't been any consistent runs.

[cycloneye]

Has been introduced at the 12z surface analisis.

[WeatherBoy2000]

12z GFS is much much weaker so far with this, and further south, it gets over the Virgin Islands in a week. I think it's given up the idea for the big storm.

https://i.imgur.com/j0OLlix.png

Need to see more consistent runs before this can be said definitively.

For this run for sure. But the fact this, Canadian, Icon, and Euro are all so vastly different, along with the ensembles being quite different, something else just seems off.

For better or for worse, the gfs is more prone to blowing up strong storms in the long range than compared to any of those other models.