Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[Keldeo1997]

If I had a $100 bill every time the long range GFS destroyed South Florida over the years I would be rich.

[caneseddy]

[Youtube][/Youtube]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1403241519884013638/Screenshot_2025-08-08_000015.png?ex=6896d601&is=68958481&hm=fb5d2262c7eb42c9b8f8f704cb5c274ef951778b3585c360662b8756f793073a&

If I had a $100 bill every time the long range GFS destroyed South Florida over the years I would be rich.

Identical to the 12z Euro run of a Cat 4 into South Florida…at nearly the same landfall poit

Difference here being the GFS has it riding up the spine rather than exit into the Gulf as the Euro had it

We shall see…

[Beef Stew]

Given that this storm hasn't even splashed down off the coast of Africa yet, the door is still wide open for nearly any scenario, ranging from a major Caribbean/North American landfall to a fizzling wave that doesn't even consolidate in the first place. For that reason, I don't usually speculate too much on storms this far out... however, in this particular case, there are some things that do seem particularly foreboding. This wave is going to be traversing the Atlantic while instability is increasing, the MJO looks to be favorable, and during the passage of a CCKW... and not to mention in the midst of a developing synoptic pattern which, according to most current models as well as climo, has the potential to steer a hurricane west without an obvious exit.

Just because things may be primed for a potentially long-lived or impactful storm, it certainly doesn't mean this will happen- and if there's anything that's certain about the tropics, it's that things can change overnight. I'm sure we'll see some dramatic windshield-wiping from the models in the coming days, and it will still be quite a while before we get any resolution, but this is definitely a system worth keeping a very close eye on for the time being, and I could very well see it end up being our first big storm of 2025.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro recurves a H 200 miles E of NC at 360 hrs and likely heading to New England.

[Stratton23]

GFS goes into Tallahassee , CMC in the western Caribbean , Euro AIFS goes into SW Louisiana, safe to say we got a long ways to go with this one lol

[Stormlover70]

Tonight’s 00z GFS is going for the costliest natural disaster in US history title. Major strike on Metro South Florida.

Every year the gfs shows that.

[jlauderdal]

Tonight’s 00z GFS is going for the costliest natural disaster in US history title. Major strike on Metro South Florida.

Every year the gfs shows that.

Multiple times too, euro ai had us in its sights a few days ago.

[chris_fit]

06z GFS track similar to 00z so far - but 06z much stronger earlier on.

[chris_fit]

Just crawling near the Bahamas on the 06z GFS - Dorian redux

[BobHarlem]

06z GFS track similar to 00z so far - but 06z much stronger earlier on.


https://i.imgur.com/UEAfhrW.gif

6z GFS really stalls out 96L in the central Atlantic there and develops it this run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd say the switch is finally about to flip in the Atlantic.

[kevin]

06z GFS partying like it's 2019. This one will recurve from Florida, but idk about the rest of the US yet. And it comes awfully close to the Bahamas.

[chris_fit]

06z GFS partying like it's 2019. This one will recurve from Florida, but idk about the rest of the US yet. And it comes awfully close to the Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/hZxjK4z.png

Looks like whatever storm is to it's NE weakened the ridge enough to nudge it north a bit and save FL this time. That 2nd storm was not on the 00Z.

[GCANE]

Should have a better handle on this Sunday when it hits the water.

[BobHarlem]

Most of the ensembles recurve this wave at least, although that's not good for Bermuda. Climatology still says that is the most likely outcome. Canadian is probably the furthest south/west of anything though.



Euro's aren't as pronounced, though.


To mix it up with the outlier in the other direction, here's the Canadian south of Hispaniola (following the "weak goes west" idea)


Icon's last frame matches up with the 6z GFS more or less at the same time, although icon is slightly stronger.

[GCANE]

Setup looks good. Big time LL convergence underway 30W to about 5E.
Anti-cyclone appears to be setting up over most of W Africa south of the desert.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has a longtracker but as it goes long range,specific detals are not valuable to look at. It brushes the east coast to the NE. Looks like the development to hurricane of 96L has an effect on the recurving.

[BobHarlem]

No direct Us landfall on the 6z gfs, clips dangerously close to the OBX and Martha's Vineyard (which gets into the eyewall), as well as Nova Scotia. The interaction with 96L and the 10% wave off the east coast blocks 96l and causes it to stall enough to help weaken the ridge to the west and provide the path out for this wave. Beyond that the other notable change from yesterday's runs is it doesn't develop the wave until further west, 18z had it developing wed/thur, where the 6z has it pushed out to saturday.

The 0z Canadian keeps the thing weak and ends up south of Hispaniola in the Caribbean by the end of the run.

[cycloneye]

No lemon yet for wave at the 8 AM TWO.

[Category5Kaiju]

Big storm being consistently forecast? Tropical Tidbits down? It's Mid-August?

I think the switch flip is really on its way.