Arlene moving west now?!?!?!?

[frederic79]

Looks like thunderstorm popping to the northeast of the supposed LLC. Wouldn't this thing take off if dense convection expoded over the center of circulation? Just curious.

[Air Force Met]

Looks like thunderstorm popping to the northeast of the supposed LLC. Wouldn't this thing take off if dense convection expoded over the center of circulation? Just curious.

It wouldn't take off. There is still shear tehre and it takes more than thunderstorms popping over the center to get the inner core organized.

[MSRobi911]

AirForceMet you and Senorpepr are the best, must be the Air Force

Thank you for you fast replies and in a language that we all can understand, just as you did last year.

PS: You know we still have weather around here in the winter time...hehehehe

Mary

[Stormcenter]

The visible satellite loop Arlene continues to be interesting.
Make sure you speed up the loop to get a better idea of where she is moving.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Brent]

Looks like she's just drifting around.

[Air Force Met]

The visible satellite loop Arlene continues to be interesting.
Make sure you speed up the loop to get a better idea of where she is moving.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The center is becoming really elongated. There are two well defined vortices outside of the convection...and weaker one nearer the convection, south of the Isle of Youth.

Should be interesting to see how it all plays out. I think the weak one nearer the convection has a better shot. If it doesn't take off as the new center...Arlene is in for some tough time as the convection moves away.

[PTrackerLA]

For a moment it appeared as if a new LLC would be taking over on the edge of the convection but I can't detect that anymore and now the naked LLC is even better defined. I wonder what kind of implications this may have regarding Arlene's future strength and movement.

[x-y-no]

For a moment it appeared as if a new LLC would be taking over on the edge of the convection but I can't detect that anymore and now the naked LLC is even better defined. I wonder what kind of implications this may have regarding Arlene's future strength and movement.

I can't see the one by the convection either any more, but it has to be under there given the broader movement of low-level clouds. What we've got is an extremely elongated circulation with a pair of embedded vortices exposed down at the SW end, and presumably another one under the convection at the NE end.

Jan