Ixolib wrote:dhweather wrote:Here's the last three runs for comparison, definate shift back west.
But they are now more clustered, albeit further west. When they cluster like this, does that mean the handle is now much better and shifts are becoming less likely??
Unfortunately, that's not necissarily true.
Three days ago, they were tightly clustered to Western Cuba for landfall,
then thye diverged all over the place.
It's a sign that the models seem to agree on the dynamics at work, for now, for a Pensacola landfall.
Of course, that's a long way off and the models will shift again, the question is which way?
I find it noteworthy that the graphics use to show a sharp recurve after landfall, but not now. That's probably a sign of the ridge building in
from the plains. That reinforces the "timing is everything" phrase.
If Dennis slows for any reason, the further west he may go as the
plains ridge continues to build in.
