Will TD#9 curve out to sea?

[Derecho]

12Z run of the GFS surprised me some ...

For 2 days, the 12Z (and 0Z) have been to the right of the 6Z and 18Z runs - but the latest one makes the initial northward turn, but then spretty nearly stalls, and ventually turns back towards the east coast.

I'd still call this a low probability, but it'll be interesting to see if any other models and/or later GFS runs latch onto this idea.

EDIT: It's notable that this run is much slower on developing the system, which may account for this track change. I think the GFS is probably being too slow with it.

The storm that the GFS spins up immediately behind 95L has a massive influence on the GFS forecast track of 95L; due to Fujiwhara, it keeps 95L farther south, it seems.

Problem is I suspect the storm behind 95L on the GFS is wholly fictional. There's no actual circ or wave THAT close behind 95L.

[Tropicswatcher]

As others have mentioned, i's just too early to say where it will go (the islands of the Caribbean or the U.S.), though the models are still favoring an early recurve - whether it is at 50 or 60W is still unknown, but, the sooner it strengthens, the more likely it is to recurve.

Frank

Totally agree!

[Hurricaneman]

Look at the latest runs on these models, they show it coming at least to the islands before anything happens to them, I say maybe another Isabel, which is not good for me...(i live in coastal NC just west of Morehead City): http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Or further north, but most likely a fish

[WeatherEmperor]

If its a fish oh well. At least it will be fun to track.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

actually being a fish is becoming less likely not more

[WeatherEmperor]

actually being a fish is becoming less likely not more

how come?

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

The models are trending left, and the ridge will be stronger for the next few days. Chances of it being a fish are diminishing. Interesting that first thoughts were that Isabel and Frances would be fish too.

[WeatherEmperor]

The models are trending left, and the ridge will be stronger for the next few days. Chances of it being a fish are diminishing. Interesting that first thoughts were that Isabel and Frances would be fish too.

Thanks for settin me straight Scorpion. Appreciate it

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

dt has a great explanation on east coast weather forum

[ThunderMate]

Models are now shifting west with less of a recurve and starting to look like an Isabel track. Check these plots out. http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[Huckster]

dt has a great explanation on east coast weather forum

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/lofiversi ... 43876.html

[jasons2k]

Funny how a few new models seem to change everyone's opinion over my 2 hour lunch break. Hmmm over the next 5 days that means we could flip-flop a total of 60 times. I still maintain any predictions this early are premature; a guess at best.

[TS Zack]

The recurve scenario is becoming less and less likely because the storm is continuing on a Westward Course. It needs to gain some latitude quickly if it wants to feel the weakness. It will not get picked-up by the weakness at 12 Degrees Latitude.

I just don't see it happening.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Funny how a few new models seem to change everyone's opinion over my 2 hour lunch break. Hmmm over the next 5 days that means we could flip-flop a total of 60 times. I still maintain any predictions this early are premature; a guess at best.

LMAO 2 hr lunch break? Jesus...

[deltadog03]

Funny how a few new models seem to change everyone's opinion over my 2 hour lunch break. Hmmm over the next 5 days that means we could flip-flop a total of 60 times. I still maintain any predictions this early are premature; a guess at best.

I agree...im sticking to a NO fish...If i am wrong so be it....I am not going to flop with the models...they will go left go right go south go backwards..lol...im sticking to NO fish

[jasons2k]

Funny how a few new models seem to change everyone's opinion over my 2 hour lunch break. Hmmm over the next 5 days that means we could flip-flop a total of 60 times. I still maintain any predictions this early are premature; a guess at best.

LMAO 2 hr lunch break? Jesus...

Well, I drove to downtown to pick up my wife, went one place, line too long, went somewhere else, dropped her off, drove back to Galleria area...2 hours go by quick

[Ivanhater]

Funny how a few new models seem to change everyone's opinion over my 2 hour lunch break. Hmmm over the next 5 days that means we could flip-flop a total of 60 times. I still maintain any predictions this early are premature; a guess at best.

I agree...im sticking to a NO fish...If i am wrong so be it....I am not going to flop with the models...they will go left go right go south go backwards..lol...im sticking to NO fish

im with you, im sticking to it too! if were wrong then we can eat crow together, lol

[Stratusxpeye]

The recurve scenario is becoming less and less likely because the storm is continuing on a Westward Course. It needs to gain some latitude quickly if it wants to feel the weakness. It will not get picked-up by the weakness at 12 Degrees Latitude.

I just don't see it happening.

So as a premature guess if you dont see it likely becoming a northward turn system approx as a guess where in the us would we be looking at landfall? A frances typoe track? Or up the east coast to nc sc and such?

[wxmann_91]

Funny how a few new models seem to change everyone's opinion over my 2 hour lunch break. Hmmm over the next 5 days that means we could flip-flop a total of 60 times. I still maintain any predictions this early are premature; a guess at best.

I agree...im sticking to a NO fish...If i am wrong so be it....I am not going to flop with the models...they will go left go right go south go backwards..lol...im sticking to NO fish

im with you, im sticking to it too! if were wrong then we can eat crow together, lol

Yeah so am I, thinking of an Andrew, Frances, or even Betsy track where it moves north and then curves back W-WSW.

[dwg71]

18Z UKMET and GFDL show INVEST95 crossing 20N before 50W...

I'll stick with FISH...